Packers-49ers best bets: Is Green Bay a live 'dog?
Eight of the last 11 NFC Championship Games have featured at least one of the Green Bay Packers or San Francisco 49ers, who met there in 2019. Both have legitimate aspirations of returning this season, and Sunday night's meeting will tell us a lot about who we should prepare to watch on Jan. 30.
Here's how we'll be betting Packers-49ers:
Aaron Jones under 4.5 receptions (-160)
Jones made a statement in the passing game last week, turning six receptions into 48 yards and three TDs. Don't be fooled - this was an atypical game for the back, and the 49ers won't let him replicate it on Sunday.
Monday's breakout performance was the first time in Jones' last 11 games he logged more than four catches and just the 10th time in 60 career games. It also came against a Lions defense that employed a soft front to guard against Aaron Rodgers' deep ball, leaving plenty of room underneath for checkdowns and designed passes to the flat.
That won't be the case for the Niners, who have had success against Rodgers in recent years and saw how poorly Detroit's defense worked a week ago. San Francisco held Eagles backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell - two capable pass-catchers - to a combined three catches for 22 yards in Week 2, and will have their crosshairs on Jones in this one.
- C Jackson Cowart
Over 50
I bet an NFL prime-time under on Thursday and lived to tell about it. But after one of the worst football games you'll see all season, I'm shifting gears ahead of what has the potential to be one of the week's best on Sunday night.
Despite Jimmy Garoppolo's many shortcomings, Kyle Shanahan scheming against a porous Green Bay defense should have fantasy owners salivating - it's a George Kittle day, folks. I'm also expecting this to be a Trey Lance day, at least compared to the first two weeks.
The dynamism and dual-threat nature of the rookie quarterback is the perfect weapon to attack a fragile Packers defense struggling to adjust to a new scheme. I also believe Lance's lack of involvement comes partly down to Shanahan not wanting to show his hand ahead of a huge stretch of games, with the Seahawks and Cardinals up after Green Bay.
Regardless of who plays - Brandon Aiyuk remains in purgatory and the 49ers might need Frank Gore to start at running back - points will be scored by this offense against a bad Packers unit. But it's not quite enough for me to lay the points, as much as I'm tempted. It's still Rodgers on the other side. He'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays down the field and bail out his defense against a vulnerable 49ers secondary.
Settle in, this is going to be a fun one.
- Alex Moretto
49ers first half -2.5
I just can't follow the lemmings over the cliff here. Green Bay is going to be an incredibly popular underdog - which is often the kiss of death. The +3.5 is enticing against a 49ers team riddled with injuries, and the moneyline is tantalizing to play with Rodgers as an underdog. Yet, neither line has budged since it's open on Sunday night.
While I think both are reasonable plays, one good half from the Packers on Monday night against the Lions isn't enough for me to assume all is well in Cheesehead land. So, I'd like to back the 49ers, but since I don't want to see Rodgers with the ball in his hands late, I'm going to play San Francisco on the first half moneyline.
The 49ers will have their usual scripted plays to start, and the run game will have the team's outside threats stretching the Packers horizontally, creating holes for whoever is healthy in the San Francisco backfield. I also think Shanahan will deploy Lance more than he has all season in the first game that truly matters for the 49ers in the NFC standings.
Like the first two weeks, Green Bay will be down at halftime, and it will be up to Rodgers to bring the Packers back.
- Matt Russell