NFL Week 3 round-robin moneyline parlay: Don't look back in anger
Greg Joseph. There, I said it. Now that it's out there we can all move on with our lives. The Vikings kicker missed a chip shot to win the game and make the Week 2 underdog round-robin moneyline parlay profitable.
While we won them all in Week 1, at least we got our money's worth with a sweat-and-a-half in Week 2. The Panthers won easily, the Titans won the hard way, and the Colts flirted with victory as well. While we're trying to win the bets, finding value is the name of the game, even if the kicker can't do his job.
How it works
We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay. If three teams pull the upset, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win? We go swimming in gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.
Who to play
Los Angeles Chargers +250
"The Chiefs can't lose two games in a row."
Despite the popularity of that narrative, it's not actually in the NFL rulebook, and the Chargers will in fact board their flight to Kansas City this weekend. The point spread is too high here, and therefore the moneyline at +250 or better is certainly worth a shot.
In six head-to-head matchups in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 4-1 (excluding a meaningless Week 17 loss that Chad Henne started). Every game has been close, though. Mahomes has surpassed 300 passing yards just once, and he needed overtime to do it. The Chargers play it close against the NFL's best young star, and they have one of their own to counter him.
With this game being a focal point of Sunday's schedule, casual NFL fans will get an eyeful of Justin Herbert. The throws will astound you, just like the Mahomes jaw-droppers we see weekly. The question is whether the Chargers as a whole can stay out of their own way. (Going one week without a baffling call being made against them would help as well.)
New Orleans Saints +130
This is strictly a numbers play. This game was a pick'em, lined at -110 on either side, but last week's results pushed the Patriots to field-goal favorites. For me, we're buying something that should be -110 for +130, and we'll hope a healthier Saints squad (on and off the field) will have a few more answers than the Jets' defense did for a pretty basic Pats offense.
Miami Dolphins +160
Jacoby Brissett is set to start for the Dolphins and I actually prefer him at the helm with a full week of practice reps. Nothing in my numbers suggests the Raiders should be over a field-goal favorite, despite a strong start to the season. Derek Carr had 336 yards through the air in last year's matchup and Las Vegas still didn't win the game - and he might be limited due to injury.
Atlanta Falcons +140
This isn't a comfortable bet a week after a back-breaking non-cover for Atlanta - but who decided the Giants should be favorites against anyone? I give New York a home-field downgrade, as its best results with Daniel Jones have come on the road. While the Falcons as favorites are a hard pass, we'll try them as 'dogs here.
Green Bay Packers +165
Green Bay is live to win this one against an always banged-up 49ers team with no discernible home-field advantage. While the Packers' win over the Lions doesn't convince me they're "back," we're still getting a +165 price because San Francisco would normally gash Green Bay's run defense. But who's going to do the running? Last year's matchup involved a similar MASH unit and the Niners couldn't move the ball, on the ground or otherwise.
Here's how the odds shake down this week:
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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