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Best and worst value signings of NFL free agency so far

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The first two weeks of free agency are already in the books. Essentially all the top names that hit the open market have found new homes.

Here are this offseason's best and worst value signings so far.

👍 Best value signings

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel ➡️ Washington Football Team

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Fitzpatrick's contract: 1 year, $10 million ($6 million guaranteed)

Samuel's contract: 3 years, $34.5 million ($23 million guaranteed)

It might be tough to find value in the signing of a 38-year-old journeyman quarterback. However, here's a blind comparison that illustrates why Washington inked Fitzpatrick for 2021:

Player Record Comp. % Yards TDs INT
Player A 9-7 65.1 4414 27 13
Player B 4-11 69.1 3733 15 11
Player C 5-11 66 4615 23 20
Player D 8-8 66.4 3031 16 6

Player A is Fitzpatrick over his last 16 starts with the Miami Dolphins. Teddy Bridgewater, who went 4-11 during his first campaign after signing a three-year, $63-million deal with the Carolina Panthers, is Player B. Philip Rivers went 5-11 in 2019 before signing a $25-million contract for one year with the Indianapolis Colts. Finally, Player D is Marcus Mariota during his last 16 starts with the Tennessee Titans. He joined the Las Vegas Raiders in 2020 as a backup for $8.8 million annually over two years.

Bridgewater, 28, is younger than Fitzpatrick. Rivers' career was more decorated than the Harvard product's. But Fitzpatrick is getting paid like a backup even though he's been more productive than starting signal-callers that have cost at least twice as much. He'll help Washington in the short term for a great value.

Washington also added a bargain in Samuel. Despite becoming only the second wideout in the Super Bowl era to top 700 receiving yards and 200 rushing yards in the same season, the 24-year-old's average annual salary ($11.5 million) is below Corey Davis' deal with the New York Jets ($12.5 million) and just slightly over Nelson Agholor's pact with the New England Patriots ($11 million).

S Anthony Harris ➡️ Philadelphia Eagles

Contract: 1 year, $4 million

Harris may be the biggest steal of free agency. He'll turn 30 in October, but the Eagles added one of the NFL's top safeties for an average annual salary that ranks only 28th at the position. Additionally, other available top safeties landed lucrative deals. John Johnson got a three-year, $33.75-million pact from the Cleveland Browns while the Jacksonville Jaguars gave Rayshawn Jenkins a contract for four years and $35 million. Harris' market value was set at $14 million annually.

Granted, Harris didn't register a single interception after leading the NFL with six in 2019, which could've raised a red flag for teams. But he's earned the benefit of the doubt over the last three seasons. Even if Harris disappoints in 2021, this deal offers little-to-no risk for Philadelphia.

LB Haason Reddick ➡️ Carolina Panthers

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Contract: 1 year, $6 million ($6 million guaranteed)

Many believed Reddick could've inked a big deal coming off a career year. The edge rusher racked up 12.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2020 after amassing 7.5 sacks through his first three seasons. But the Panthers managed to add an emerging edge rusher on a modest, low-risk contract, which is the perfect deal for a defender who's trying to prove he isn't a one-season wonder.

Defensive end Trey Hendrickson had 6.5 career sacks before breaking out with 13.5 last year. Hendrickson and Reddick both turn 27 this season. Yet Hendrickson inked a four-year, $60-million deal with the Cincinnati Bengals. Reddick's pact is even cheaper than what the Los Angeles Rams gave Leonard Floyd, a fellow former first-rounder who struggled early in his career, last offseason (one year, $10 million).

Floyd earned a four-year, $64-million contract following his first double-digit sack campaign; the Panthers will face a similar situation in 2022 if Reddick replicates his impressive 2020 season. But until then, they can enjoy one year of Reddick on a team-friendly contract.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster ➡️ Pittsburgh Steelers

Contract: 1 year, $8 million ($7 million guaranteed)

Smith-Schuster was expected to command a contract reflecting his billing as one of the five best receivers available. The 24-year-old's market value was believed to be in the range of $16 million annually. Instead, Smith-Schuster re-signed with the Steelers for half of that.

His deal ranks 32nd among receivers on a per-year basis. He signed for less money than older and lesser wideouts Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins did in 2020. Fellow free-agent receivers Corey Davis, Nelson Agholor, and Will Fuller each earned millions more in their deals.

Smith-Schuster does get $7 million guaranteed in a depressed market and will return to an offense he's familiar with to attempt to build his value. But this is a clear steal for the Steelers, who retained a player they likely believed would be almost impossible to re-sign.

CB Kyle Fuller ➡️ Denver Broncos

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Contract: 1 year, $9.5 million ($9 million guaranteed)

It's not every day a 28-year-old All-Pro hits the market. It's even less likely that player signs for less than eight figures.

When the Bears released Fuller almost a week into free agency, he needed only to look at recent deals inked by William Jackson ($13.5 million average annual value), Shaquill Griffin ($13.3M AAV), and Ronald Darby ($10M AAV) to determine his value. However, Fuller will make significantly less than those three corners in 2021 despite being far more accomplished.

Denver gets a proven defensive playmaker at a bargain price. Fuller declined to take a pay cut from the $14 million he was set to earn with Chicago in 2021 and then signed for nearly $5 million less to reunite with former Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. It's a masterstroke for rookie general manager George Paton, who still has the league's third-most cap space.

👎 Contracts teams will regret

TE Jonnu Smith ➡️ New England Patriots

Contract: 4 years, $50 million ($31.25 guaranteed)

The Patriots' approach to this offseason remains shocking. Amid dozens of signings and hundreds of millions of dollars spent, New England added the top two tight ends available in Smith and Hunter Henry. Smith and Henry had annual market values of $8 million and $10.9 million, respectively. Yet the Patriots gave each player $12.5 million per year, tied for the third-highest salary among tight ends. Henry's contract, though, is for three years only.

Smith's future is promising but he topped 40 receptions just once in his four-year career and has yet to collect 500 yards in a season. The lack of depth within the free-agent tight end class likely precipitated New England committing such a contract to the former Tennessee Titan early on. Smith will have to play to his full potential for this deal to make sense for the Pats.

LB Bud Dupree ➡️ Tennessee Titans

Contract: 5 years, $82.5 million ($35 million guaranteed)

The Titans had to get right back into the batter's box this offseason after striking out on their 2020 deals for Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley. They're hoping they hit a home run with Dupree, but it's an expensive risk. He inked a fatter contract than the top free-agent edge rusher, Shaq Barrett, despite tearing his ACL in December.

Dupree recorded 19.5 sacks over the past two seasons, but 61% of his pressures last campaign came when he was either unblocked or on cleanup plays, according to PFF. And that was prior to the injury. ACL tears are no longer career-ending ailments, but it's fair to question whether Dupree will regain his lateral quickness.

G Joe Thuney ➡️ Kansas City Chiefs

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Contract: 5 years, $80 million ($46.9 million guaranteed)

It's OK for the Chiefs to make Thuney, a high-level player, the NFL's second-highest-paid guard in 2021 at $16 million per year. But why didn't they spend that money on an offensive tackle, which is clearly the team's biggest need? Did signing Thuney prevent Kansas City from making a stronger run at left tackle Trent Williams? The two sides were close to a deal before the San Francisco 49ers outbid potential suitors with a record offer.

The Baltimore Ravens added veteran guard Kevin Zeitler on a three-year contract worth $22.5 million this offseason. Zeitler's game might not be as flawless as Thuney's, but Zeitler is still a reliable starter who commanded a significantly cheaper price.

Granted, the Chiefs' offensive line is better with Thuney in it. But they still have holes at tackle, which severely damaged the team in its Super Bowl LV loss.

DE Trey Hendrickson ➡️ Cincinnati Bengals

Contract: 4 years, $60 million ($16 million guaranteed)

The Bengals are betting big that Hendrickson's breakout 13.5-sack season wasn't an aberration. Rather than giving him a prove-it deal, much like Barrett received when he signed the franchise tag after recording 19.5 sacks in 2019, Cincinnati handed Hendrickson the type of contract generally earned by proven commodities.

The deal's value only ranks 19th among edge rushers, and it contains just $16 million guaranteed. There's also a potential out after the 2021 season that would carry a $7.5-million dead cap hit. But Cincy could've retained Carl Lawson, who signed for less with the New York Jets after recording 32 quarterback hits and 44 pressures. Hendrickson had 25 quarterback hits and 33 pressures despite totaling eight more sacks than Lawson.

The 26-year-old may have reaped the rewards of playing opposite Cam Jordan, who opposing teams scheme for, and in front of a lockdown Saints secondary. Hendrickson could have a tough time replicating last season's numbers as the main guy on the Bengals' defensive line.

CB Adoree' Jackson ➡️ New York Giants

Contract: 3 years, $39 million ($26.5 million guaranteed)

Cornerback was a need for the Giants, and Jackson's arrival does make New York's secondary better. However, guaranteeing over $26 million to a corner who's missed 18 games over the last two seasons, and whose tackling ability is questionable, is risky. Griffin and Fuller, both of whom played significantly better than Jackson over the last two years, signed a three-year, $40-million pact and a one-year, $9.5-million contract this offseason, respectively.

The Giants now have over $27 million in average annual salary tied up to their cornerback duo of Jackson and James Bradberry. New York's overvalued contracts, combined with potential big extensions for running back Saquon Barkley and safety Jabrill Peppers on the horizon, will soon reflect on the team's salary cap.

(Salary source: Spotrac)

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