Super Bowl LV scoring props: Buccaneers will have longest TD
The scoring prop market is one of the most intriguing ahead of Super Bowl LV. The Chiefs and Buccaneers both finished top five in offense this season, and the total of 56 suggests a relatively high-scoring affair.
There are plenty of bets to pick and choose from, but where's the value at? Here are some of our favorites for Sunday.
Team to score the longest TD
Chiefs: -143
Buccaneers: +115
Over a large sample size, the Chiefs roll in this department. Not only are wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman two of the fastest players in the league humans on the planet who can score from anywhere on the field, but Kansas City's also had a knack for the big play with Patrick Mahomes under center.
But over a four-quarter sample, the Buccaneers are worth a look at +115.
The Chiefs' offense hasn't connected on the big play in a while. Kansas City's last 13 offensive touchdowns have come from an average of 6.84 yards out, and the unit hasn't recorded a score longer than 25 yards since Week 14.
An important factor for handicapping this bet - beyond the explosiveness of an offense - is a defense's propensity to give up the big play. With an uptick in passing attempts expected, I'm siding with the Buccaneers and fading the Chiefs' secondary; Tampa Bay is No. 8 in explosive rush rate allowed and No. 4 against the pass, while Kansas City ranks fourth in the former category but 23rd in the latter.
One player to watch out for is Tampa Bay's Scotty Miller: He ranks No. 4 in the league in average target distance (16.1 yards), and he's getting almost 2 yards of separation per target. He caught a 39-yard touchdown against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game and will be the Buccaneers' deep threat if Antonio Brown remains sidelined.
Pick: Buccaneers +115
Total TDs
Over: 6.5 (-110)
Under: 6.5 (-110)
I like the game total over, so naturally, I'll bet over here, too. Mahomes and Tom Brady have cashed back-to-back unders against each other, but one would expect them to get back to their shootout ways, much like we saw in their first two meetings.
The Chiefs and Buccaneers own the league's second- and third-ranked DVOA offenses, respectively. Both are top five through the air and outside the top 10 on the ground. In a game featuring Brady and Mahomes under center, Andy Reid and Bruce Arians calling plays, and no shortage of elite playmaking talent in either skill corps, this one could get out of hand rather quickly.
Pick: Over 6.5
Total yards of longest TD
Over: 45.5 (-110)
Under: 45.5 (-110)
I'll admit it: I'm not as bullish on the longest touchdown over as I am on the game total. Both teams are probably scheming up efficient offensive game plans to free players open, but the defenses should emphasize not allowing the big play. That's especially true for Tampa Bay after it let Hill run rampant for 12 catches, 236 yards, and three scores in Week 12.
Pick: Under 45.5
Total yards of shortest TD
Over: 1.5 (+140)
Under: 1.5 (-177)
Our own C Jackson Cowart did some handy research on this one, noting the shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in 21 of the last 31 Super Bowls, including 10 of the last 15 and four of the last five. The Chiefs and 49ers combined for three such scores in last season's affair alone.
This is an easy call.
Pick: Under 1.5
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.