Week 15: The Buffalo Bills are back
A rundown of the best games and most interesting trends for Week 15 of the NFL. All times Eastern.
Long time coming
Bills (10-3) at Broncos (5-8), Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
It seems a bit unfair to be crediting the Buffalo Bills for their success this year. After all, Buffalo reached the playoffs twice in head coach Sean McDermott's first three seasons, which was two more postseason appearances for the Bills than in any of the 18 years prior. That's hard to do! Even the sorry-ass New York Jets, who will miss the playoffs for the 10th straight season this year, are in the midst of a postseason drought that's just more than half as long as the one the Bills endured.
In other words, the Bills have been building for this - "this" being that next step up in the NFL's Hierarchy of Solid Teams, which is totally a real thing and not something lame I made up. The point being: It's been a steep climb, what with the New England Patriots and their dynastic control of the NFL in general and the AFC East in particular standing in the way for a couple of decades. But now it's possible to envision the Bills doing something in the postseason beyond just being there.
The Patriots have been deposed, and Buffalo is now just a win or a Miami Dolphins loss away from clinching its first division title since 1995. This is progress. Last week's victory over the sliding Pittsburgh Steelers made it impossible to deny.
The most obvious reason for Buffalo's improvement has been the play of quarterback Josh Allen, who's elevated his game from strong-armed-but-inaccurate to coldly efficient: Per Ben Baldwin's database, Allen leads the league in success rate (56%), which Baldwin defines as the percentage of plays with positive expected points added (EPA). Allen is also fifth in EPA/play (0.245). According to Next Gen Stats, he's fifth in completion percentage over expectation (3.5%) - an indication he's making a lot of good throws.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll created a system that suits Allen. Allen uses a lot of play-action - 34.4%, per PFF, which ranks fourth in the league - and he's a threat to work outside the pocket and to run: His 113 rushing attempts are fourth-most among quarterbacks, and his average time to throw of 3.02 seconds is second-slowest, per Next Gen Stats, behind only Baker Mayfield's 3.12.
Defensively, the Bills have given up more than 30 points only four times, and they're ranked fifth in special teams DVOA. They're also a Hail Murray away from being 11-2 and riding a seven-game winning streak. Long story short: There are lots of reasons to believe the Bills are legit - and that they're making that big climb at just the right time. It's been a while.
Hmmm ...
Seahawks (9-4) at Washington (6-7), 1 p.m.
Go figure. Washington's won four in a row, and played well enough in that stretch to maybe get everyone else to stop making NFC East jokes. But Washington's also going to have to play this one without quarterback Alex Smith (calf) and running back Antonio Gibson (toe). Then again, defense is what's carried Washington lately: It's all the way up to fourth in defensive efficiency, including No. 2 against the pass, which at least ought to make for an intriguing matchup against the Fighting Russell Wilsons. Seattle's battling for the top spot in the NFC West with the Los Angeles Rams, who get to face the winless Jets at home.
Who knows?
Buccaneers (8-5) at Falcons (4-9), 1 p.m.
Football Outsiders has a metric for variance, which gauges a team's consistency from week-to-week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had more variance than anyone else, as indicated by games like their blowout win over the Green Bay Packers and their blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints.
What that means for Tampa Bay's matchup at Atlanta on Sunday: Who's to say? The Bucs should win this game, but if they somehow don't, it probably won't come as much of a shock, either.
That kind of year
Browns (9-4) at Giants (5-8), 8:20 p.m.
When it comes to popularity - commenters, please note that I used the word "popularity" and not "success" - the Dallas Cowboys are the NFL's version of The Beatles. But I just want to say we live in a world in which the Cowboys were flexed out of a Sunday night game at San Francisco so that Browns-Giants could get the league's most prominent programming slot instead. And it's not close to being the weirdest thing to happen in 2020.
Oh, yeah, right. This game.
Chiefs (12-1) at Saints (10-3), 4:25 p.m.
Patrick Mahomes against Drew Brees in the late-afternoon window in Week 15, where it can be seen by nearly the entire country and hyped relentlessly as a potential Super Bowl preview? The Packers might have something to say about that, and Brees' rib cage once Brees actually takes a hit might ultimately, but, sure, knock yourselves out by running with it. If nothing else, this game seems certain to be wildly entertaining.
Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.