NFL Week 11 parlay: Texans, Dolphins, Packers
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We cashed the first two legs of our Week 10 parlay on Sunday, which took us into Monday night in need of a Bears win for a hefty payout. Hopefully, you hedged.
Here's what's on tap for Week 11.
Texans ML +120 (vs. Patriots), Nov. 22 @ 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots found unexpected success in Week 10, upsetting the Ravens with a strong assist from Mother Nature. New England won by keeping the ball on the ground and out of Cam Newton's hands while keying in on the Ravens' rushing attack with little threat of being beaten through the air. The Pats' resurgent run game will find success again against a Texans unit that can't stop the run, but there will be a greater urgency for Newton to make plays through the air against Deshaun Watson.
The Ravens' pass attack pales in comparison to the Texans', which ranks second in yards per pass. Houston might struggle to stop the run, but Watson will have no issue keeping pace against a Patriots secondary that allows an alarmingly high 68.16% completion percentage and ranks 31st in yards per pass through the air (8.2). This is a great sell-high spot on New England coming off that prime-time win, and we get excellent value with the Texans as a result. There's little between these two teams, and if you erase New England's win last week, Houston would be short favorites here at home.
Dolphins ML -170 (@ Broncos), Nov. 22 @ 4:05 p.m.
What else can the Dolphins do to get the respect they deserve? Oddsmakers seem reluctant to believe in this team despite all the underlying numbers suggesting its recent success is sustainable. Miami is one of the NFL's best-coached squads under Brian Flores, and that's reflected in the team's pristine turnover margin, third-down defense, and special teams. Tua Tagovailoa is showing excellent poise and command of this offense while not turning the ball over, and the defense is loaded with talent and has been playing lights-out. The team is so focused right now that a letdown should be far out of our minds.
This flawless Miami secondary gave Justin Herbert fits, which doesn't bode well for a banged-up Drew Lock, who's coming off a four-interception game against the Raiders' relatively meager secondary. Much of the success that the Broncos have found on offense over the past month has come in garbage time, and there should be plenty of that here with the Dolphins likely to pull ahead rather quickly.
Packers ML +110 (@ Colts), Nov. 22 @ 4:25 p.m.
The Colts' dominant win over the Titans last Thursday is fresh in everyone's minds, while the Packers struggled to get past the Jaguars. The Colts are impressing on both sides of the ball, but it's hard to put much stock in their offensive performance against a Tennessee team that not only can't play defense but also forgot how to play special teams. This will be a much different test against a Packers unit that's getting healthy.
The Colts are playing well, but it's hard to know how seriously to take them. Their most impressive win was last week's against the Titans; otherwise, they've beaten up the league's bottom-feeders. Their two biggest tests - the Ravens and Browns - ended in lopsided defeats. In what will be a tight, hard-fought game, I'm much more comfortable relying on Aaron Rodgers and his abundance of weapons than I am on Rivers.
Full parlay: Texans ML, Dolphins ML, Packers ML ($100 to win $634)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.