NFL Week 10 survivor picks: Jags, Luton to lose at Lambeau

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Nothing came easy in Week 9 after a few straightforward weeks. All three of my suggested picks induced more than a mild sweat - the Texans denied a late, game-tying two-point conversion to survive while the Steelers and Patriots both erased double-digit fourth-quarter deficits.

I conceded defeat at multiple points over the last few days - things were bleak and I had little faith in a Pittsburgh or New England comeback. But I lived to tell the tale and, assuming you followed this column's advice, you did too.

It wasn't a big week for eliminations with only the Cardinals, and perhaps Washington, helping our cause. In all likelihood, you are into the final 15-20% of your pool like I am, but as magical as this season has been for us, it's hardly the time for celebration. There's a long way to go and the closer we get, the more we want it.

Week 10 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Author's pick: Green Bay Packers

If you've been following along every week you still have the Packers available for selection, which is proving quite clutch in a tricky Week 10 slate. Green Bay is one of the only picks on the slate truly inspiring a bit of confidence as the squad returns to Lambeau for a few extra days to prepare for rookie quarterback Jake Luton.

Luton was a cover machine during his final season at Oregon State and led the Beavers to an 8-3 record against the spread, with two of those losses coming by a single point. He conjured up more magic to produce a backdoor cover against Houston in his debut but came up short in the win department, which has been a common theme for the Washington native. Despite his heroics against the spread, Luton was just 7-14 straight up as a starter in three years with the Beavers. The 24-year-old flashed potential in his first NFL start and while it is possible to cover the large 14-point spread in Week 10, it'd be shocking if he left Lambeau with an outright win.

It's one thing to find success at home against a miserable Texans defense, but another to do it in your first-ever road start while at Lambeau Field against a much stronger opponent. The Packers forced Nick Mullens into a pair of turnovers on Thursday night and you can expect defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to get creative with his looks in what will be a learning experience for Luton.

The offense is expected to endure some growing pains, adding pressure to a Jaguars defense that's simply incapable of carrying the load. Jacksonville has allowed the second-most yards per play in the NFL this season and the second-most through the air, with the unit also ranking 31st in sack percentage and scoring. Aaron Rodgers has the chance to feast with Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Davante Adams all healthy for the first time since Week 6.

The Packers have been favored by at least a touchdown on five separate occasions under Matt LaFleur. They're 5-0 straight up in those games with an average margin of victory of 10.8 points. If you're still unsure, Rodgers has never lost a start in his NFL career when the Packers are favored by at least two touchdowns.

Avoid: Pittsburgh Steelers

It feels more and more like the Steelers are due for a bad loss with each passing week. Full credit goes to Mike Tomlin and this team for knowing how to win football games, but there have been plenty of unconvincing results throughout this impressive 8-0 start.

Pittsburgh required late comebacks to beat the lowly Cowboys and Texans. The club barely survived against the Broncos. A last-second missed field goal helped them get past the Titans. And Lamar Jackson's careless football-handling gifted them a win against the Ravens. This doesn't mean the Steelers are simply lucky - this squad is very strong - but they're far from the invincibility their record indicates and at one point the other shoe is going to drop.

Whether or not this is the week remains to be seen, but these Bengals are live 'dogs with Joe Burrow under center. Burrow and the Bengals sit at 2-5-1 through the first half of his rookie season, but they're an impressive 6-1-1 against the spread. They put up a fight week in, week out. Four of their five losses this season have been by five points or less and they match up well against this Pittsburgh defense, which Cincinnati has had an extra week to prepare for coming out of the bye.

The way to beat the Steelers is through the air. Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel, and Garrett Gilbert all threw for at least 240 yards against this defensive unit with five total touchdowns. Similarly, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, and Ryan Tannehill each threw for a pair of scores against this defense. Offenses can attack Pittsburgh's secondary and Burrow has both the weapons and the swagger required to do so.

Add in the fact that Ben Roethlisberger - who the team just placed on the COVID-19 list, along with three other teammates - is hobbled after suffering a knee injury against the Cowboys and this game is rife with upset potential. Stay far, far away.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.