NFL Week 7 Pros vs Joes: Jets drawing sharp action as big 'dogs
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Before you make your NFL bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing a busy Week 7 slate.
Bills (-10.5, 46) @ Jets, 1 p.m.
Just as everyone expected, the team sharp bettors have locked into this week is ... the Jets?
The Bills opened as 11.5-point favorites and were bet up to -13 early in the week. That's when sharps pounced and moved the line swiftly in the other direction. Entering the weekend, New York was seeing three times as much money wagered and counting as the line continued to drop.
"(The liability on the Jets) is easily double any other team," Rood said. "At 13, that’s when they started taking the Jets, and the money that we’re taking on the way down is sharper money."
The public is still riding Buffalo, which is among the heaviest-bet teams in parlays. Still, don't be surprised to see this line touch 10 by Sunday if sharp money continues to pour in on New York.
Lions @ Falcons (-2.5, 55.5), 1 p.m.
The second-biggest target for bettors this week is the Lions, who are drawing big bets in a favorable spot against the Falcons.
Detroit has seen twice as many tickets bet on it but eight times as much money after an impressive three-game run that included wins against the Jaguars and Cardinals and a narrow loss to the Saints.
The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off their first win of the season and drawing twice as much activity on parlays, which Rood hopes is a harbinger of more straight bets on the home side.
"I've got to think we're gonna see some public play," Rood said. "Still, we're probably gonna be needing the Falcons in that spot."
Steelers at Titans (-1, 51), 1 p.m.
The game of the week is also the matchup with the most intriguing betting activity, and the line could still be on the move ahead of Sunday.
The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites early this week and had drawn twice as many bet slips entering the weekend. Yet the Titans were the favorites in the sharp community, pulling four times as much money. That was enough to move the line all the way to Tennessee -1, where it sits as of Saturday afternoon.
"It'll either stay here at -1 or possibly go up because of the sharper plays," Rood said. "But at +1, the public is loving the Steelers."
Pittsburgh has garnered 70% of the tickets on parlays with a 5-to-1 advantage in money, which suggests a run of public money could be coming on the road 'dog ahead of Sunday. Still, it likely won't be enough to offset the amount of sharp play on the other side, Rood said.
49ers @ Patriots (-2.5, 44.5), 4:25 p.m.
Few would have expected this to be a matchup of two .500 teams or worse heading into the season. Public bettors see both sides somewhat equally, but sharps have a decided lean on Sunday's affair.
The 49ers have seen a 7-to-1 advantage in money wagered over the Patriots despite both sides drawing a nearly identical amount of tickets heading into the weekend. That run of sharp money brought this line from an opening 3 down to 2, but that's since moved back to 2.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
If the Patriots did drop this contest, it would be only their fourth loss as home favorites in their last 25 contests - they're 17-7 against the spread in their previous 24 tries. The Niners are 6-26 SU as road 'dogs since 2015 but have covered three straight in that spot.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.