Tua Tagovailoa 2020 player props: Trust in his talent
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After diving into the player props for first overall pick Joe Burrow on Tuesday, today we break down the numbers for the second quarterback off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua Tagovailoa.
In order for these props to be actionable, Tagovailoa must start Week 1. The Miami Dolphins remain adamant that Ryan Fitzpatrick will begin the season under center, but we so often see well-meaning teams get swept up in the excitement of young potential; intentions to keep rookie quarterbacks on the bench to learn frequently don't last beyond Week 3 of the preseason.
So, with that being said, let's have a look at the lines.
Over/Under 3,200 passing yards
The knock on Tagovailoa, who was the consensus first pick in the 2020 draft until midway through last season, is his durability. Health is a concern for the quarterback and it's why he dropped in the draft, but there's little to separate him from Burrow when he's on the field. If anything, Tua has the better arm, so it's strange to see this number a full 600 yards lower than Burrow's line (3,800).
If Tua is indeed a Week 1 starter, 3,200 yards feels like the floor for his rookie season. The Dolphins' skill positions were ravaged by trades and injuries last season, and Fitzpatrick still managed 3,500 yards in 14 games - two of which he split with Josh Rosen.
Fourteen rookie quarterbacks have surpassed this total in the past 10 seasons, many of them not Week 1 starters. Health, of course, would be the concern here. Tagovailoa would have to play around 14 games to hit this number, but there's little doubt he'll comfortably reach it if he's on the field.
Pick: Over
Over/Under 19 passing touchdowns
Despite leading bottom-eight scoring offenses in each of the past three seasons, Dolphins quarterbacks have comfortably surpassed this total each year. Jay Cutler threw for 19 touchdowns in 13 starts in 2017, with Matt Moore and David Fales adding another five. Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler combined for 23 in 2018, and Fitzpatrick hit 20 on his own last season despite not playing the full year.
Miami's offense should undoubtedly be improved in 2020, and with Tagovailoa at the helm, this number errs too much on the side of caution. Three rookie quarterbacks - Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, and Daniel Jones - threw at least 20 touchdown passes last season. Assuming he has a starting role in Week 1, Tua should easily follow in their footsteps.
Pick: Over
Over/Under 15.5 interceptions
All of Tua's biggest strengths suggest interceptions won't be an issue for the Dolphins quarterback. The transition from the NCAA to the NFL is obviously different for everyone, but Tagovailoa has excellent instincts and sees the field incredibly well. His accuracy is one of his biggest selling points, and his decision-making ability - a byproduct of his great instincts and vision - helps him avoid turning the ball over.
Tagovailoa threw just nine interceptions in 24 starts over his final two seasons at Alabama, and a sudden surge in this area just isn't in his DNA.
Pick: Under
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.