NFL divisional round best bets

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Every week during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

Odds are courtesy of theScore Bet.

Thomas Casale ($1,508)

Season record: 14-8-2, +508

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Pick: Texans +10 ($75)

I anticipate that the Chiefs and Ravens will duke it out next week for a trip to the Super Bowl, but 10 points seem like too many here, especially considering Houston already won in Kansas City this season. The Chiefs' biggest weakness is a rush defense that allowed 4.9 yards per attempt this year. The Texans exploited that soft run D in Week 6 by gaining 192 yards on the ground in a 31-24 road upset.

Both teams are different now, but the big point spread is an overreaction to recent results. The Chiefs' defense may be improved, but it also faced some punchless offenses over the last month of the regular season. The Texans are a step up in class, and considering the road team has won three of the last four outright in this series, I'll grab them to stay within 10 points on Sunday.

Alex Kolodziej ($928)

Season record: 13-11, -$72

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Pick: Chiefs team total over 28.5 ($50)

The Chiefs weren't stymied by the Texans' defense in the earlier meeting this season. Despite losing at home and scoring just seven points in the second half, Kansas City averaged 6.6 yards per play. The problem was that KC's offense only possessed the ball for roughly one-third of the game, as Houston successfully played keep-away.

Now that the Chiefs finally have a defense, I don't think you'll see the Texans control the clock as effectively. And with extra time for head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes to prepare for a Houston defense I'm still quite low on, Kansas City should be able to name the score at Arrowhead.

Alex Moretto ($925)

Season record: 18-19-1, -$75

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Pick: 49ers -7 ($100)

I've been a lot higher on the Vikings this season than most, and I still think they feature one of the most underrated rosters in the NFL. That being said, this is a brutal matchup for them. The Vikings are not built to face a team like the 49ers, who play great defense and excel at getting after the quarterback. San Francisco's D will also get a massive boost with Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, and Jaquiski Tartt all set to return from injury. That trio last took the field together on Oct. 31 when the 49ers were 8-0 and owned the league’s most dominant defense.

Meanwhile, San Francisco boasts the league's second-best rushing attack and should be able to gash a Vikings defense that padded its stats against weaker opponents this season but allowed a troubling 5.8 yards per rush against playoff teams. Look for Minnesota to get into an early hole, forcing the offense to abandon the run, which will allow Nick Bosa and Co. to tee off on Kirk Cousins. At that point, it could get ugly.

C Jackson Cowart ($776)

Season record: 17-18-3, -$224

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Picks: Vikings +7 ($75), Vikings +260 ($25)

Last week, I wasn't convinced there was much of a talent or coaching gap between the Vikings and Saints. I feel the same this week with the Vikings set to face the 49ers, whose run-predicated offense could be in for some tough sledding against Minnesota's strong rush defense. San Francisco has struggled in this spot, going just 5-14-1 ATS as a home favorite over its last 20 games. Give me a touchdown all day long with a small shot on the moneyline.