NFL Week 5 action report: Sharps backing the Bucs
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A quarter of the NFL season is in the books, and Week 5 features a couple of big division games. Where is the sharp money? Which lines are moving the most? Each week throughout the NFL season, we'll track the games drawing the most interest from sharp and public bettors.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 5 slate.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Ravens -3
The Ravens started out hot, winning their first two games over the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals; teams that are now a combined 0-7-1. However, Baltimore dropped its last two contests to the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns, while the Steelers are coming off their first win of the year over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Sharp bettors think the Ravens are overvalued this week as a road favorite in Pittsburgh. The line has been between -3.5 and -3 all week, although the bigger bets are coming in on the Steelers.
"The ticket count is even in this game but the money is 2-1 to the Steelers," Rood said. "However, most of the parlay money is on the Ravens, so they are seeing more play from the public."
The Ravens are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five trips to Pittsburgh, although the underdog has covered eight of the last nine meetings in the series.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
The Buccaneers are coming off an impressive 55-40 road upset over the Los Angeles Rams as 9-point underdogs last week. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-0 since losing Drew Brees, with wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys by a total of eight points.
This could be a tough spot for a Saints team coming off two emotional wins, and sharp bettors have taken notice. The line opened at Saints -6.5 and dropped all the way to -3, with early sharp money backing the underdog.
"Money coming in is 3-1 for the Bucs," Rood said. "There's also been heavy action on the Bucs moneyline +140. We will almost certainly be rooting for the Saints on Sunday."
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -11
The Colts are coming off a home loss to the Oakland Raiders as 7-point favorites and are double-digit underdogs in Kansas City. Big Sunday night favorites haven't been profitable: Home favorites of 10 or more points are just 13-29-1 ATS all time in Sunday night prime-time games.
Bettors aren't buying into the trends when it comes to this matchup. The Chiefs opened -9.5 and that line moved to -11, with money coming in on Kansas City from both sharp and public bettors.
"Everything is all Chiefs," Rood said. "The money coming in is 10-1 to the Chiefs and the ticket count is 4-1. The Chiefs will also be the most parlayed team of the weekend. We'll be big Colts fans Sunday night."
Jacoby Brissett will need to match points with Patrick Mahomes if the Colts have any hope of covering the 11 points. Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass for only the second time in 21 games a starter last week. Don't expect that trend to continue against a Colts defense that has allowed nine passing touchdowns; tied for the third most in the NFL through four games.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.