5 betting tips for Week 7 of the NFL season
Need a cheat sheet or some help spotting situational edges with a new week of NFL action fast approaching? We've got you covered.
Here are five spots to consider as you do your homework for Week 7:
The Buffalo Bills have been traveling ... a lot
Travel is an oft-forgotten angle at the NFL level.
Back in Week 2, we discussed how porous teams had been on the second leg of back-to-back road games to open the year. In Week 5, the Denver Broncos were due for a hangover playing in Eastern Time for an early kickoff. Last week, how we all didn't fade Jon Gruden and the Oakland Raiders after he discussed his fear of flying is beyond me.
One team that's been in the air, sleeping in hotels, and playing inside uncomfortable environments plenty this season are the Buffalo Bills.
Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts marks the fifth away game for Buffalo this year. Rewind back to the preseason and this upcoming Sunday will be the sixth road game in roughly the last eight weeks, and eighth in the last 10.
Fade defending Super Bowl champions off huge wins
The Eagles laying waste to the New York Giants in prime time last week sets Philadelphia up for an angle that's been profitable for bettors to fade.
Defending Super Bowl champions coming off 20-plus point wins facing a team off a loss are a shade under 40 percent against the spread. The opponent in Week 7 is Carolina, a team on a 5-0 run against the spread following a loss. The Panthers fell to the Washington Redskins last Sunday and are seeking some revenge following last year's 28-23 home defeat to Philly.
Play the Patriots on the road versus NFC opponents
This is merely a coincidence or I've unearthed the most perplexing angle that's ever been discovered.
Every team in the NFL plays four games out of conference - two at home, two on the road. New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has not lost both road games against the spread over a single season in the last 17 years. Overall, he's 23-11-1 during that span. Back in Week 3, the Patriots went on the road and lost outright to the Detroit Lions as seven-point favorites.
This Sunday, New England goes on the road to face the Chicago Bears as three-point chalk.
Consider the Lions - especially if they're favorites
Linesmakers have yet to release any odds for the Lions-Dolphins game as the status of Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is up in the air. If he doesn't go, it'll be Brock Osweiler, who marched the Dolphins to an overtime win over the Bears last Sunday.
Osweiler under center will also likely make Detroit the favorites. Playing road favorites off bye weeks has been profitable as of late, as teams in this situation are on a 50-25 run against the spread. Overall, traveling teams coming off a bye week are hitting at 57 percent since 2008.
Fade rookie quarterbacks on short weeks
Josh Rosen is already behind the eight-ball in Arizona. Not only has the Cardinals rookie been thrust into action early, he's playing with a skill corps that doesn't inspire much confidence behind a shoddy offensive line. In Week 7, he'll face another obstacle.
Since the NFL implemented Thursday games into the schedule in 2012, rookie quarterbacks on short rest are 4-11 straight up. Sam Darnold and the New York Jets are the lone victims so far this season, dropping a road game to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.
Rosen faces the Broncos in what's essentially a pick 'em.