Somehow it's already Week 5 of the NFL season, and byes are here. The Chiefs and Panthers have the week off, shrinking Sunday's lineup to 14 games, headlined by the Seahawks hosting the 49ers and capped by Monday Night Football featuring the Bills and Rams.
Let's get to our picks against the spread, player props, and favorite touchdown scorer bets for Week 5.
Jump to: Spread picks | Early slate | Late slate | Player props | TD scorers | Survivor selections
Our trio of betting writers - Eric Patterson, Brenden Deeg, and Dane Belbeck - will make picks against the spread for Sunday's slate and Monday Night Football all season.
Eric Patterson breaks down his favorite picks against the spread, adding his own analysis and insights. He'll also identify player props and touchdown scorers to target, plus a survivor selection to help you win your pool.
🏈 Bet: Jets (-2.5)
The Browns have won three straight, but I'm skeptical about how good they actually are. They narrowly escaped with two wins at home and beat a Buccaneers team on the road that hasn't covered a spread in 13 consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost three straight, two of those on the road, and you could argue they should have a better record after coming out on the wrong side of a couple of close contests.
This spread suggests the Jets are slightly better than the Browns after accounting for roughly 1.5 points for home-field advantage. While this should be a lower-scoring affair, the Jets have the offensive edge, and New York's improved defense should be able to keep Deshaun Watson in check and beat the Browns by at least a field goal. 👉 Add the Jets to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Commanders (-4)
Jayden Daniels is back under center for Washington and shouldn't have any restrictions despite playing with a brace on his left elbow. Say what you will about his durability, but Daniels gives the Commanders' offense a high enough floor to keep it competitive against any opponent.
Jameis Winston and the Giants offense put up 31 points on the Cardinals at home last week, but I expect the Commanders' defense to pose a far tougher test at home in a divisional matchup. Although the Giants will likely try to lean on the run with Cam Skattebo, Washington is allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. If Winston is forced to throw more than the Giants would like, the Commanders' improved pass rush will generate game-changing turnovers to sway this one in Washington's favor. 👉 Add the Commanders to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Colts (+3)
I'm not buying the Steelers' two-game offensive resurgence in which they scored 54 points against the Bengals and Browns. Aaron Rodgers was arguably the worst quarterback in the league through Week 2, and regression is coming for the 42-year-old.
The Colts have faced a difficult schedule so far this season and are better than their 2-2 record indicates. They failed to contain Lamar Jackson in Week 1 - few teams can - and hung tough on the road against the Chiefs in Week 2. Their defense got them past the Texans in Week 3, then they handled the Commanders with ease in London.
This game seems like it will come down to the last possession, so I'll back the team that's getting three points. 👉 Add the Colts to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Saints (+2.5)
The Vikings are easily the worst undefeated team remaining, so I can't get behind them as road favorites. Kyler Murray led them to only 15 points against the lowly Dolphins, and he has the second-lowest EPA/play among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays, per SumerSports.
Minnesota's strength is stopping the run, but the Saints can't run the ball effectively anyway, so that negates the Vikings' biggest edge. On the flip side, the Saints' run defense is susceptible, as we saw Monday against the Falcons, but the Vikings don't have backs who can capitalize on New Orleans' weakness like Bijan Robinson did.
I like the Saints to win this game straight up in a bounce-back performance versus an overachieving Vikings team. Getting 2.5 points is the cherry on top. 👉 Add the Saints to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Cardinals (+5.5)
This game boils down to the Lions' defense, which hasn't shown the ability to slow any team down. The Cardinals have enough offensive weapons to keep pace with Jared Goff and Co., even if they end up losing this game outright.
Detroit is giving up 31.8 points and 446.8 yards per game, which explains why it hasn't covered a spread this season. Meanwhile, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in three of four games; the only time it didn't was against Seattle's stout defense.
It wouldn't be shocking to see the Cardinals score 35 points en route to victory. Goff's done a solid job of getting Detroit to 2-2, but asking the Lions' offense to score enough to cover by six points is a tall order. 👉 Add the Saints to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Seahawks (-3)
This is easily the game of the week, with two Super Bowl hopefuls squaring off in a divisional meeting. The Seahawks won the season series last year by beating the 49ers in Week 18 and in the divisional round of the playoffs. Seattle outscored San Francisco 54-9 over those two games.
The 49ers are one of three remaining undefeated teams, but they haven't really been tested yet, and this will be their first real road game. San Francisco opened its year with a win over the Rams in Australia and then returned home to beat the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Broncos.
The Seahawks have had an interesting start to the year with Sam Darnold out of the lineup and a surprising road loss to the Commanders as their lone blemish. However, they're 3-1 and have a substantial defensive edge over the 49ers. While this spread feels bang on, I'll side with the home team, which I think is slightly better anyway. 👉 Add the Seahawks to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Over 34.5 passing attempts (+115)
The Packers can't run the ball; they're averaging a league-worst 58 yards per game. Their only hope of scoring points against the Bears will be through Love, who's had games with 53 and 42 attempts this year. The Packers' team total is 22.5, and if they manage to score three touchdowns, it will come by way of Love's arm.
🏈 Bet: Over 4.5 receptions (-125)
The Commanders struggle against opposing tight ends, and Likely is one of the most heavily utilized tight ends in the league. He has a 31.53% target share, according to SumerSports, which is the third highest in the NFL behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DeVonta Smith. Likely has recorded five or more receptions in three of four games this season.
🏈 Bet: Over 19.5 rush attempts (+100)
The Colts' offense runs through Taylor. The unit generates success by giving him as many touches as possible. Taylor has handled 20 or more carries in three straight games, and he had 19 in the only game he didn't - a blowout loss to the Ravens. The Steelers' middle-of-the-pack rush defense won't deter the Colts from giving the ball to their best player early and often.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+105)
Points will be scored in Lions-Cardinals, as evidenced by the 54.5 game total. Detroit has given up a league-high six touchdowns to opposing tight ends and is now tasked with slowing down one of the NFL's best at the position. McBride has become a touchdown machine alongside Jacoby Brissett. He scored 11 last year and already has two this season.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+160)
On the other side of the field, LaPorta is someone to target at plus-money. He's hauled in two touchdowns this year, and the Cardinals similarly aren't great at defending tight ends. They've given up three touchdowns to the position while allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends per game.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+250)
Both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are questionable for Sunday's meeting with the Dolphins. If either sits, Gesicki will see an uptick in usage. He already has three touchdowns this season and may have some extra motivation against his former team.
If you somehow dodged the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football and are still alive in survivor, well done. This year has been brutal for heavy favorites, and most pools will likely end this week.
The Jaguars are the biggest "home" favorite, but they're laying 7.5 points in a neutral-site game in London against the Eagles. That isn't the best contest to target, so you may have to ride with an away team on account of the limited options.
The Bengals stand out as the team to take. They're 7-point favorites over the Dolphins, and you probably don't want to risk it all with the winless Texans on the road against a divisional opponent, even if the Titans are one of the worst teams in the league.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
CA: Please play responsibly. AB (18+) & ON (19+) only. If gambling is affecting your mental health or well-being, 211 Alberta is here to help. Call or text 211 or visit ab.211.ca (AB). Call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca (ON).
