NFL Week 18 betting guide (Part 2): The real games
Week 18 is like the Wild West. Not all teams have something to play for, but those that do provide great viewing and an element of pre-playoff desperation. We've looked at the fake games - now it's time to dig into the real ones.
Betting is multifaceted, so we'll keep an eye on futures market bets that we made as part of our season preview series or our midseason check-in.
For each game, we'll include an "If all things were equal" (IATWE) line - essentially a projected point spread if the game were played in traditional circumstances - and divide each game into a lean, bet, or best bet.
Steelers @ Ravens (+3.5, 34.5)
IATWE line: Ravens -10
Blindly taking the points with the underdog in the Steelers-Ravens rivalry has been a profitable bet, and this isn't the most uncomfortable iteration of the matchup. Tyler Huntley isn't a 14-point drop-off from Lamar Jackson, but Pittsburgh's need to win to reach the playoffs has inflated this line. Unlike the Chiefs' situation with the Chargers, Baltimore has good depth and the motivation to spoil the Steelers' season.
Pick: Ravens (+3.5)
If you have a ticket with the Steelers to make the playoffs, you can hold it as a plus-money ticket for a moneyline result now priced at -200, or you can attempt to middle by backing the Ravens.
Texans @ Colts (+1, 47.5)
IATWE line: Colts -1
C.J. Stroud is back, and the appetite for the Texans in the betting market seems extensive. This line opened appropriately at Colts -1 but has flipped to Houston as the favorite, presumably due to a lack of faith in Gardner Minshew.
Bet: Texans moneyline (-120)
Falcons @ Saints (-3, 42.5)
IATWE line: Saints -2
The Saints crushed the Buccaneers in Week 17, but the Falcons' fruitless trip to Soldier Field appears to be why the line for this game has gone through and over a field goal. That's enough to make Atlanta valuable in a duel that will cash the loser's "not to make the playoffs" tickets without securing the winner's "make the playoffs" tickets.
Getting back indoors, even if it's on the road, should benefit Atlanta, which had one of its most efficient offensive games of the season in a 24-15 win over the Saints in November.
Lean: Falcons (+3)
Jaguars @ Titans (+3.5, 41.5)
IATWE line: Jaguars -4.5
Early in the week, the Jaguars were pushed out from an open of -3.5 to -5.5. Since then, the line has dropped back to the opening number, potentially out of concern that Trevor Lawrence won't be available or some faith that the Titans will play light-years better than last week.
If the Titans are competitive (or Lawrence is out), Mike Vrabel's squad is live to win what'll likely be Ryan Tannehill's and Derrick Henry's last games in Nashville.
Bet: Titans moneyline (+165)
Buccaneers @ Panthers (+4.5, 37.5)
IATWE line: Buccaneers -5
Our lone long-shot division winner bet from before the season, the Buccaneers get a second chance to secure the NFC South at +900. This is great since, win or lose, we don't have to predict what sort of effort the Panthers will put forth a week after one of the worst performances of any team this season.
We prefer backing home teams in Week 18, but only if there's some positive spirit in the building. That's not the case for the Panthers, so if you have no considerations on Tampa Bay, you can back it at a short number. The Panthers aren't worthy of a middle attempt if you're holding Tampa tickets.
Lean: Buccaneers (-4.5)
Bears @ Packers (-3, 45.5)
IATWE line: Packers -2
The Packers' win-and-in scenario and positive injury report have this line sitting higher than it otherwise would be, especially considering how the Bears were an eyelash away from five straight wins to end the season.
Chicago's in the role the Lions were in last season: the team in Week 18 content on playing spoiler in Green Bay with positive feelings as it looks ahead to next season.
Bet: Bears (+3)
Cowboys @ Commanders (+13, 46.5)
IATWE line: Cowboys -10.5
Seemingly out of nowhere, the Cowboys are one victory away from winning the NFC East at +185 - their preseason odds - which is a far cry from a moneyline price of -800.
After losing in Washington in Week 18 last year - and with the Commanders potentially embodying the NFL's version of "1, 2, 3, Cancun," Dallas is the only team to play if you have to pick a side.
Lean: Cowboys (-13)
With Brock Purdy sitting out, Dak Prescott's got a two-touchdown lead over Jordan Love for most passing touchdowns. If you're worried about protecting a position for a big win at +1800, you can bet Love to throw over 1.5 touchdowns in the player prop market, with the possibility that both bets win.
Eagles @ Giants (+5.5, 41.5)
IATWE line: Eagles -9.5
We detailed the Eagles' dominance over the Giants in the first halves of their meetings when we looked at backing Philadelphia on Christmas. Sure enough, the Eagles took a 20-3 lead into the break. We won nothing due to neglecting a derivative market that lined up better with our handicap.
Philadelphia can take back the NFC East, so it'll be interested in playing right up until halftime. The market's out on the Eagles, so with the game line down under a touchdown, the first-half line provides great value without having to deal with potential second-half nonsense.
Best bet: Eagles first half (-3)
Seahawks @ Cardinals (+3, 47.5)
IATWE line: Seahawks -1.5
The Seahawks need a win to have a chance to make the playoffs, but the market sniffed out that -3 was too high of an opening line, dropping it under a field goal only for it to drift back up later in the week. The Cardinals have been scrappy enough playing at home that they should keep this game within one possession. Using a 6-point teaser, we can pull the Bengals down from -7 to only need Cincinnati to beat the disinterested Browns.
Best bet: Bengals -1 / Cardinals +9 (6-point teaser)
Bills @ Dolphins (+3, 48.5)
IATWE line: Bills -0.5
You can decide whether it's the Dolphins' injuries or just getting blown out last week in Baltimore that has this line stretched out to the Bills -3.
If Buffalo clinches a playoff spot before the game, one wonders if that'd take some of its desperation away. We'll never know by watching the game, but it might be enough to pull the line off a field goal. This line can't go higher, so it's worth playing the Dolphins now versus waiting for -2.5 if you like Buffalo.
Bet: Dolphins (+3)
If you're holding tickets on Miami to win the AFC East (+300), Bills to miss the playoffs (+225), or Bills: Under 10.5 wins (+133), you can let those skip betting the Dolphins and let those ride. If you like Buffalo in this game, the Bills moneyline lets you out of all of the above.
Those sitting with Mike Evans (+1400) to lead the NFL in touchdowns from our midseason futures overview will naturally hope he puts that out of reach earlier in the day. If not, assess the player prop market and bet on Tyreek Hill to score (or two-plus as necessary).
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.