Week 11 round-robin underdog parlay: Hold your nose Sunday
It's such a bettors' mentality to win and feel like you missed out on more.
We cashed another winner with three of five in our weekly guilty pleasure in Week 10, but with the Browns and Texans not on our list, it feels like there was more out there, even if the Panthers and Commanders came close enough that our favorite underdogs went 5-0 against the spread.
With seven underdogs of a touchdown or more on the board for Week 11, there are plenty of opportunities to get aggressive - win, lose, or late field goal.
How it works
We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.
Who to play
Giants (+340) over Commanders
Pro: This is an outrageous price for this matchup.
Con: Tommy DeVito
In their first meeting this season, the Commanders managed 4.1 yards per play for a total of 273 total yards. That ineptitude had nothing to do with DeVito and could easily be replicable on Sunday.
The Giants won 14-7 despite low expectations as home underdogs and losing the turnover battle with a pair of fumbles from non-quarterbacks.
While frisky as an underdog itself, Washington isn't a team that should be expected to win games convincingly, especially with a defense that's lost two key pieces recently (Chase Young and Montez Sweat) and given up 5.2 yards per play to a Patriots team averaging 4.8 this season and 6.6 yards to the Seahawks, who've averaged 5.5.
With another week of practice and a far better setup for success than in his last three appearances, DeVito should be able to play well enough to overcome a subterranean team rating and, with a couple of good bounces, win the game outright.
Packers (+140) over Chargers
Playing the Rams and Steelers might be exactly what the doctor ordered for Jordan Love. His passing yardage (228 yards and 289 yards in his last two games) doesn't sound like much, but the Packers' anemic offense is only as good as their matchup, and now the Chargers' league-worst pass defense comes to town.
The Bolts' offense has made it work with dump-offs to Austin Ekeler against the Bears, fumble luck against the Jets, and going 3-for-3 on fourth-down conversions against the Lions - none of which are particularly sustainable.
Titans (+260) over Jaguars
Inconsistency is inevitable for a rookie quarterback, and the Tennessee offense was disappointing last week, but that doesn't mean Will Levis won't connect on a few deep passes this week. Of course, there's also the Titans' run game to rely on and a defensive line that should cause trouble for a Jacksonville offensive line that got lit up last week.
Raiders (+600) over Dolphins
No, the Raiders probably aren't going to win. Let's focus less on the team and more on the odds. A group riding good vibes and a two-game win streak with capable talent and something it can do well - run the football - isn't the same as the opponents (Giants, Panthers, Patriots) the Dolphins have covered against in similarly lined games.
At 6-to-1, and with Miami having injury question marks up and down the offensive line, the Raiders are worth their portion of this bet on the idea that Maxx Crosby and Co. can generate a game-altering turnover and otherwise limit Dolphins possessions. If Miami's offensive rhythm is off after its post-Germany bye week, that might be enough for a stunning upset that's more likely to occur than other candidates with shorter payouts.
Jets (+260) over Bills
Even at the best of times for the Bills, the Jets have been a thorn in Buffalo's side, with upset wins in two of their last three meetings. Things aren't exactly running smoothly in Buffalo now, and we still haven't found the bottom for the Bills in terms of their rating in the market. So we'll make it six weeks in a row of fading Buffalo and maybe longer until they cover.
Sean McDermott's made the last move he's got up his sleeve by firing Ken Dorsey, but what can Joe Brady do to stop Josh Allen from turning the ball over? The Jets are far from the easiest opponent for the Bills to get back on track. Meanwhile, Buffalo's defense gets more banged up by the week.
How the odds look this week:
Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.