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NFL Week 10 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams

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Upsets happen in the NFL. Each game amounts to an average of 10 possessions per team - if a few go awry on each side of the ball, the better squad is suddenly in trouble.

When games continue to bewilder us even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not just about a shocking result. The Cowboys' Week 3 loss to the Cardinals remains a head-scratcher, but the Panthers' win over the Texans in Week 8 gets weirder with time. It's hard to believe Houston was merely a field goal favorite in Carolina.

The "Huh? Hall of Fame" for the 2023 season isn't just limited to wins and losses. Mac Jones threw for 316 yards in Week 1 against the Eagles.

Conversely, the Jets' win over the Bills on Monday night in Week 1 seems less of a stunner now. Everything that's happened with Buffalo's season since is believable in retrospect. That reinforces the idea that the Bills' rating needs to be lowered more and more each week, whereas other surprise results are excusable as flukes.

How ratings work

Every week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.

The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.

Market ratings and our range

49ers 74 60-80
Eagles 73 60-80
Cowboys 71 60-80
Chiefs 70 60-80
Ravens 70 55-75
Lions 70 50-70
Dolphins 69 55-75
Bills 65 55-75
Bengals 60 50-70
Chargers 57 50-70
Jaguars 57 45-65
Browns 55 40-60
Saints 53 40-60
Seahawks 52 40-60
Texans 46 30-50
Steelers 45 40-60
Broncos 43 35-55
Falcons 42 35-55
Buccaneers 42 30-50
Colts 41 25-45
Packers 40 35-55
Titans 40 35-55
Jets 39 30-50
Commanders 39 35-55
Vikings 37 35-55
Patriots 36 30-50
Raiders 34 30-50
Rams 32 30-55
Cardinals 30 20-40
Bears 26 20-40
Panthers 20 20-45
Giants 12 25-45

Cue the Stringer Bell GIFs - the 49ers are back up. With Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back and Chase Young in the mix, its ascent shouldn't come as a surprise, especially since it routed the Jaguars. With the Eagles, Chiefs, and Dolphins getting the week off, the 49ers sit atop the market's ratings.

The Lions moved from a virtual pick'em early in the week of their matchup with the Chargers to +3 before seeing buyback on Los Angeles on Sunday. The Bolts beat the Jets just six days earlier. Though it wasn't an impressive performance, downgrading them seemed harsh, so the move was more about a pro-Detroit stance. Those willing to wait to bet the Chargers got away with a push, while those betting on the Lions under a field goal got the money.

Speaking of taking money, the Buccaneers got bet late in the week, though not quite up to -3. Is that about the market selling the Titans off a loss on the road to the Steelers? With extra rest, that seems unlikely. It thus has to be market interest in the Bucs after their offense showed success in Houston a week earlier.

The Browns beat the Ravens, but did we learn anything definitive about Cleveland? For the third straight week, a Browns game featured a massive ricochet at the line of scrimmage. After the Seahawks caught one three weeks ago in beating the Browns, Cleveland caught the last two, putting it in a position to win in Baltimore despite trailing by 14 in the fourth quarter.

The market didn't buy into Joshua Dobbs, opting to still believe in the Saints: Two mistakes that led to a pretty obvious bet to make.

At the bottom of the NFL, our new challenge is to find the correct rating for the Cardinals now that Kyler Murray is back. It didn't help that the Falcons might not be rated low enough. Meanwhile, Tommy DeVito's Giants have plunged to Arizona's former position under our artificial floor of incompetence: 20/100.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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