NFL Week 11 best bets: Who stays hot?
A 64.1% win rate on our best bets against the spread wasn't sustainable, so a 1-3-1 week isn't shocking, even if the Ravens' collapse was. Luckily, our five favorite dogs swept ATS, the Broncos came through on the moneyline, and the adjusted line parlay won, all more than making up for a bad break in Baltimore.
Best bets ATS
We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.
However, there are more plays worth making this week.
With Deshaun Watson out and Dorian Thompson-Robinson surprisingly named the starter, it feels like the Browns are an underdog in this game. However, they still boast the best unit by far.
Cleveland's defense didn't allow the Steelers to run a play inside the 30-yard line in their Week 2 matchup, and Pittsburgh's offense hasn't shown any more consistency since.
It was a Watson pick-six on the first play and a fourth-quarter T.J. Watt fumble that cost the Browns the game, so how much worse can it be with Thompson-Robinson?
The Steelers' run defense is poor (4.5 yards per carry) and their secondary has shown massive holes without Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Browns should be able to use their tailbacks and strategically pass via play-action to win a low-scoring game.
Pick: Browns (-1)
It's easy to get excited about Kyler Murray's return and a rare Cardinals win, but, the more you look into it, the more it seems like the Falcons' incompetence drove that result. Murray had 249 passing yards and no touchdowns, and his late scramble made it seem like he had more than 33 rushing yards. He said after the game that, on his walk-in touchdown run, he hadn't been defended that ignorantly since high school.
I was reminded during a podcast appearance this week that Texans head coach Demeco Ryans prepared for Murray repeatedly as the 49ers' defensive coordinator, and they already showed they can handle a mobile quarterback when they held Lamar Jackson to 207 combined passing and rushing yards in Week 1.
Offensively, the Falcons mustered just 3.3 yards per pass attempt against Arizona. There are worse teams in the NFL, but no one's failing accidentally more egregiously than the Falcons. In turn, C.J. Stroud is operating Bobby Slowik's offense at a high level. Murray won't be able to keep up.
Pick: Texans (-4.5)
The Panthers are out of ideas. Frank Reich might be one-and-done, so he's taking back the offensive play-calling. However, a lack of talent has always been an issue, and the Cowboys should have no trouble tormenting Bryce Young, capping how many points Carolina can score this week.
The Panthers might get Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn back, but they'll need more than that against the Cowboys' offense, which is cooking right now. Carolina is 1-9 despite a relatively soft schedule, and in its games against comparable teams - the Seahawks, Lions, Dolphins - it allowed 37, 42, and 42 points. Scoring 31 points might be disappointing for Dallas, and getting to 20 seems highly unlikely for a Carolina team that hasn't scored that many in a competitive game this season.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)
The Joshua Dobbs experience has been fun the last two weeks, but the Vikings might be set to take a step back on the road against a Broncos defense that's turning it around. Let's assume that Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is aware that half of Dobbs' completions last week went to T.J. Hockenson. The Saints clued into that at halftime, and Minnesota scored just three points in the second half.
Look for Sean Payton to be prepared for the high-frequency blitzing that has been Brian Flores' calling card this season. Russell Wilson isn't turning the ball over, and he'll make enough things happen around the line of scrimmage to create a big play or two against an exposed secondary.
Pick: Broncos (-2.5)
Moneyline upset of the week
Packers (+140) over Chargers
We hit a big one last week, so you'll forgive me if we take one that's a little shorter than usual. That's just how much we like the Packers this week.
They say that a running game and defense travel. The Chargers have neither.
Austin Ekeler has 76 carries for 215 yards since coming back from injury.
Remember how bad the Broncos' pass defense was before their personnel changes? The Chargers have caught up to them in opponent yards per attempt, and the Packers' modest offensive improvement has coincided with Aaron Jones' availability.
Best 6-point teaser
Lions -1.5 / Eagles +8.5 (-130)
The opening line of Lions -10.5 was too high, especially with Justin Fields' pending return. But the market pushing this spread down has it begging to be teased under the key number of -3.
The Eagles took money to move the line off of +3, with the market presumably believing that line was an over-adjustment from when Philadelphia was a slight favorite in February. Let's run with that idea and bet the Eagles keep this within one score.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
- Carlsson, Ducks beat Avs to snap 8-game skid
- Thunder rally after allowing late 30-0 run to thwart Mavs in Doncic's return
- Forsberg makes 39 saves, Senators shut out Kraken
- Strus, Garland each drop 22, Cavaliers hand Pistons 17th straight loss
- Bridges electrifies as Nets snap Magic's record-tying 9-game win streak