2023 Miami Dolphins betting preview: Tua's health the top priority for loaded squad
For a long time, no one wanted anything to do with the Miami Dolphins.
The team was on a late-season plummet and lost five straight before Tua Tagovailoa's campaign-ending injury made matters worse. Even Week 18's playoff-clinching win came in a poor showing of a game.
Tasked with visiting Buffalo with Skylar Thompson under center, the Dolphins were the 14-point underdogs. A peek at the box score makes it hard to believe that the Dolphins ever had a chance - they managed 42 rushing yards on 20 carries, and Thompson completed just 18 of 45 passes.
The Dolphins covering their lone playoff game put their overall record against the spread at 10-8. How Miami fares this season depends on offseason acquisitions and the health of key pieces.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (+105/-125) |
| Division | +325 |
| Conference | +1200 |
| Super Bowl | +2000 |
| Estimated rating | 58/100 |
Like the other AFC East teams, the Dolphins boost their rating from our first look back in May thanks to their division. With the betting market projecting 37 regular season wins for the four teams, the AFC East is behind only the AFC North as the best division in the NFL.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2 | @NE | MIA -2.5 |
| 3 | DEN | MIA -3.5 |
| 4 | @BUF | BUF -3.5 |
| 5 | NYG | MIA -4.5 |
| 6 | CAR | MIA -7 |
| 7 | @PHI | PHI -4 |
| 8 | NE | MIA -4 |
| 9 | @KC | KC -4 |
| 11 | LV | MIA -5.5 |
| 12 | @NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 13 | @WSH | MIA -3.5 |
| 14 | TEN | MIA -7 |
| 15 | NYJ | MIA -1.5 |
| 16 | DAL | MIA -1.5 |
| 17 | @BAL | BAL -1 |
| 18 | BUF | MIA -1.5 |
While they're the third betting choice in the AFC East, the Dolphins are the sizeable favorites against non-divisional teams like the Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Raiders and Titans.
Assuming the Bills and Chiefs are still the class of their divisions, Week 1 in Los Angeles increases in import. If we turn the Chargers' estimated rating of 63 into a winning percentage, they're good for 17 out of 27 points on a spread scale. The Dolphins' 58 rating gets them 15.7. That 1.3-point difference and a tally for the Chargers' limited home-field advantage make the Chargers 2.5-point favorites. Given the Dolphins were small favorites in this matchup last year, there may be some value on Miami - especially if a +3 shows up for the Chargers between now and the opener.
What's to like about the Dolphins
Assuming Miami's starting quarterback returns, Tagovailoa's accuracy unlocks Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's ability to catch and run for massive yardage in Mike McDaniel's offense.
The addition of star corner Jalen Ramsey creates arguably the best secondary in the league - which is critical in a division with Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers. It also goes a long way with Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott on the schedule.
If the Dolphins sign Dalvin Cook, things could look a lot different for them this season. They carry +195 odds to acquire the former Vikings star, and it seems like the battle is between only Miami and New England. While giving a tailback a big, long-term contract might not be the best move, getting a good one for a small, short-term investment would certainly help a Miami team that hasn't had a 1000-yard rusher since 2016.
What's not to like about the Dolphins
If something happens to Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have to rely on Mike White, which means McDaniel needs to worry more about protecting his quarterback than ever before.
Even if Miami gets Cook, there's no guarantee that he'll have the requisite holes to run through. After all, it's not like the Dolphins haven't tried numerous other tailbacks. Plus, signing Cook would take opportunities away from De'Von Achane - the third-round pick that I'd like to see get ample carries.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | MVP | +2200 |
| Offensive Player of the Year | +5000 | |
| Most passing yards | +2200 | |
| Most passing touchdowns | +1600 | |
| Comeback POTY | +2000 | |
| Tyreek Hill | MVP | +15000 |
| Offensive POTY | +2000 | |
| Most receptions | +800 | |
| Most receiving yards | +900 | |
| Most receiving TDs | +2200 | |
| Jaylen Waddle | Offensive POTY | +4000 |
| Most receptions | +3000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +3000 | |
| Most receiving TDs | +2500 | |
| Raheem Mostert | Most rushing yards | +5000 |
| Most rushing TDs | +3000 | |
| Jaelan Phillips | Defensive POTY | +5000 |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Bradley Chubb | Defensive POTY | +5500 |
| Most sacks | +7500 | |
| Jalen Ramsey | Defensive POTY | +7500 |
| Jevon Holland | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| De'Von Achane | Offensive ROTY | +3500 |
| Mike McDaniel | Coach of the Year | +1800 |
It tells you all you need to know about the Dolphins' defense that Xavien Howard and Christian Wilkins aren't one of their top-four choices in the Defensive Player of the Year market.
If Cook doesn't become a Dolphin, grab Achane for Offensive Rookie of the Year since Raheem Mostert's inconsistent durability is all that stands in his way.
A full, healthy season from Tagovailoa - and the stats that would come with it - will garner Comeback Player of the Year attention, so the 20-1 odds ask much less of him than any of the statistical markets do.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.