NFL Week 3 player props: Plus-money plays the order of the day
We exorcised our Travis Etienne prop demons last week, but a 5-5 Sunday left many confused by Kyle Pitts' lack of usage and frustrated by whatever it was the Browns were doing defensively when Joe Flacco beat them deep late. Luckily, Kyler Murray saved the day with a fourth-down scamper. At 12-8 (+3.9 units) overall, we'll keep building on a decent start to the season.
Travis Etienne over 2.5 receptions (+115)
Speaking of Etienne, why not go back to the well? His yardage total can be had in the marketplace at 16.5, but with a plus-money price on over 2.5 catches, that's the play I'll make. The Chargers gave up two sizable receptions against the Raiders in Week 1 and six catches on six targets to Chiefs tailbacks in Week 2. Etienne should get at least four targets. If he can catch 75% of them, it won't matter how far he runs or if he fumbles.
Mac Jones over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105)
Passing touchdowns are the toughest to project week-to-week. A quarterback can dominate in the passing game only to hand the ball off near the goal line. However, Jones' median expectation is 243.5 yards, which is a little too high for an over but suggests he'll be able to do damage through the air. If that's the case, with another plus-money payout, we'll back Jones to find pay dirt in the best setup for his success so far this season.
Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions (+110)
Maybe I'm missing something, but Hill has been targeted a dozen or more times in the first two games this season. With numerous members of the Bills secondary out for Sunday's game, who's stopping him? The Dolphins have a much better chance to move the ball through the air, and they'll be tasked with keeping up with Buffalo's offense. Even if that means short throws to Hill, that'll only help our cause.
Garrett Wilson over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)
Maybe it's the uniform, but we're all sleeping on what the Jets do offensively - they throw a ton. If I was younger and hipper, I'd suggest that Garrett Wilson might be Him. He showed elusiveness in Week 1 on eight targets before catching eight balls on 14 targets the next week. There's no reason to believe Joe Flacco won't have to throw 40-50 times again, and he's looking at Wilson more and more.
Dameon Pierce over 60.5 rush yards (-110)
The Texans have had to run against the Colts and Broncos in their first two games, which has jammed up what Lovie Smith and Co. want to do offensively. The Bears have given up 5.1 yards per carry in the first two games, and we watched the Packers run through them comfortably on Sunday Night Football. Pierce should be in line for at least another 15 carries in a winnable game that could see him on close-out duty late. Anything better than four yards per carry with that volume would push him over.
Patrick Mahomes over 10.5 rush yards (-110)
Mahomes has just five carries for four yards through two games. I'd argue he didn't need his usual scrambling magic in a blowout of the Cardinals, and the Chargers did a nice job containing him. This week, Mahomes has to go to a loud environment where communication with his new receiving corps will be tougher and the offensive line will be a half-step slow. He'll need to scramble.
Derrick Henry under 81.5 rushing yards (-110)
Henry isn't what he used to be. While this yardage total isn't 100-plus, it might not be adjusted enough. We'll keep testing the floor on Henry, who's running behind an offensive line that's not what it was in his prime, either.
Curtis Samuel over 46.5 receiving yards (-110)
Samuel's only season of 100-plus targets came in 2019 when Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner was on Ron Rivera's staff in Carolina. After missing almost all of 2021, Samuel is now healthy and tied with Terry McLaurin for the most receiving yards on the team. He also has nine more receptions and eight more targets than McLaurin. Yet Samuel is lined well under his teammate.
Tyler Allgeier over 33.5 rushing yards (-110)
The rookie out of BYU missed the season opener but was given 10 carries in his NFL debut last week while the Falcons played from behind. The Seahawks' run defense has been gashed by a pair of Broncos and Jeff Wilson. Cordarrelle Patterson should have a big game, but he's not a 20-plus carry workhorse. Allgeier is taking over Mike Davis' role from 2021, where he had just 15 fewer carries than Patterson.
Leonard Fournette over 71.5 rushing yards (-110)
Unlike Patterson, Fournette is a workhorse tailback. The Buccaneers will lean on him this week against Green Bay after the Bears ran for 8.42 yards per carry versus the Packers in Week 2. Fournette has recorded 21 and 25 carries so far this season, but he might be up for more with a depleted Bucs receiving corps.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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