NFL Week 2 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
It's overreaction week in the NFL, but with a twist. Given all the upsets in Week 1, it's hard to overvalue so many winners that we didn't initially think too highly of.
We swept the board against the spread and gave it all back with our best teaser, total, and moneyline shot in Week 1. Par for the course for someone who's made hay in ATS contests. As such, we'll let point spread value guide the picks in each format this week.
Best bets ATS
Saints +2.5
The Buccaneers were missing a closing move in the red zone last week in Dallas. Rob Gronkowski isn't around anymore to catch passes and draw attention to create space for others. Mike Evans doesn't just lead a receiving corps on the field but also into the training room this week. Even if Tampa Bay was at full health, the Saints' defense has repeatedly proved it has some keys to slowing Tom Brady and Co., particularly in the regular season.
It's not a secret that Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport rush from multiple angles, and a relatively new Tampa offensive line was better in run-blocking than pass-blocking against Dallas. However, the Saints have regularly been top-five against the run.
The Bucs' defense is not to be trifled with, but the Saints have so many different options - both in personnel and scheme. Thanks to a good touchdown conversion rate in the red zone, they can find just enough points to knock off their division rival.
Colts -3.5
It's a bargain basement sale on the Indianapolis Colts after another disappointing season opener, but this line should be closer to the seven points they were favored by against the Texans last week because their 5.7 yards per play and 4.4 against suggests the line wasn't that wrong.
Matt Ryan's group couldn't convert enough of their five red-zone trips last week, but if the Colts get the same amount this week, the Jaguars are in trouble. Shaq Leonard is likely to return as the centerpiece for Indy's defense, which makes everyone on that side of the ball better. Well aware of what happened in Week 18 last season, the Colts get revenge comfortably in a game where the price is lower than it should be because of an unfortunate history.
Bills -9.5
The line is under -10 as of this writing for the first time all week. The numbers bettors may have seen value on the Titans given it's been years since Tennessee was rated low enough to be a double-digit underdog to anyone. However, now that may be appropriate.
The Bills just dealt with an All-Pro defensive tackle in Aaron Donald, and that game plan should be in place for Jeffery Simmons. In a raucous Monday Night Football atmosphere in Buffalo, I expect Tennessee's offense to sputter, unable to keep up with Josh Allen and the well-rested Bills.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Cardinals (+190)
It's starting to slowly correct down toward a field goal, but the peak 6-point spread for this game was always too high, and it had an inflated moneyline to go with it. Kyler Murray should be able to move the ball against the Raiders' defense, and if the Cardinals' defense gets any healthier, it can hold up just enough to make this a back-and-forth affair. At that point, one bounce going the Cardinals' way could be the difference in scoring Arizona the upset.
Best total bet
Falcons/Rams under 47 (-110)
Whether it's taking the under or the Falcons (+10.5), the handicap is the same. Atlanta works its ground game to run the clock and shorten the contest. That might not translate to touchdowns, but field goals will keep the Falcons within the number without threatening the over.
The Rams' offense is lacking high-end talent outside of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp right now. Depending on how the Falcons play it, they have an excellent corner in A.J. Terrell to follow Kupp. A strategy of not blitzing Stafford and focusing on Kupp can force L.A. into a more methodical approach that will assist in slowing the pace as well.
Best 6-point teaser
Steelers +8.5 / Panthers +8 (-120)
I can take or leave the spread in the Patriots-Steelers game, but I'll dare New England's offense to generate enough points to win by more than a score.
As for the Panthers, if a made 58-yard field goal was missed in Charlotte and a missed 47-yard field goal was made in Nashville, we're probably looking at Carolina being the favorite in its game with the Giants. Instead, we're getting two points that we could take on their own or bump up to +8 in what has to be valuable in a two-team six-point teaser.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.