NFL Week 1 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
We've spent the week transitioning from a summer of evaluating the markets of every season-long future, prop, and award under the sun into looking at Week 1 betting strategies for live underdogs, favorites we can trust in survivor contests, and the top teaser legs worth playing. Now, it's time to decide on the best plays worth making on the eve of the weekend.
Best ATS favorite bets
The following are my three favorite plays against the spread for contest play.
Texans +7
We discussed a handful of underdogs worth a spread bet in the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, but the one that can still be bet at a full seven points (or better) is the Texans. It comes down to Houston's rebuilt offensive line being able to compete with the Colts' front seven. Dameon Pierce provides skill at tailback that will open things up for Davis Mills and his underrated connection with Brandin Cooks. Lovie Smith's a defensive coach, so there should be some improvement on that side of the ball, especially if Derek Stingley proves he is deserving of his draft slot.
Vikings +1.5
No surprise here, as the Aaron Rodgers "R-E-L-A-X" routine will be on display again this season. It's hard to imagine it will be worse than last year's season opener, but the Packers may struggle to get off the blocks. Za'Darius Smith moving from green to purple might be a bigger swing than just the loss of Davante Adams. Meanwhile, this is Kevin O'Connell and Kirk Cousins' chance to show what the Vikings' weaponry can do with open lines of communication and aggressiveness.
Commanders -2.5
The Jaguars-Commanders game became a play for me once it crossed over the key number of three. Here we are, backing Carson Wentz and hoping not to regret it for the 18th consecutive time. The Commanders' defensive line - even without Chase Young - can torment Trevor Lawrence, and I'm waiting to see it before I believe what many have been selling about Jacksonville this summer.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Patriots +150
Here's another line move that created a play. The more than two weeks that have passed since the end of the preseason should mean the most to a team with a quality coaching staff and a young, smart quarterback. I expect Mac Jones and the Patriots' offense to show more than they did in August and cause problems for a Dolphins defense that feasted on poor quarterbacks last season.
Best total bet
Chiefs/Cardinals under 54
The Chiefs traded for Tyreek Hill as part of their commitment to improving the defense. Kansas City could very well shut down the DeAndre Hopkins-less Cardinals, but this game's total isn't being lined like it. While I think the Chiefs' offense will still be good, it may take longer than one game for it to click to the point where KC's games can hit more than 54 points.
Best teaser bet
If you're not playing survivor and aren't riding hard for the Ravens to win outright, you can knock their spread down to -1 and pair them with the Cowboys in the Sunday night game. Six points bump the line in Dallas up over eight, which means we're not vulnerable to missed extra points - either via kick or failed two-point conversion. The Cowboys have admitted they're willing to use a two-headed approach in the run game, and while Dak Prescott doesn't have the utensils he had last year in the close battle with the Buccaneers in Week 1, Tom Brady doesn't have his usual protection either and is missing Rob Gronkowski and potentially Chris Godwin.
Pick: Ravens -1 / Cowboys +8.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.