Should bettors buy into Steelers' undefeated start?
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Through the first half of the NFL season, only one team is still undefeated, and that club is starting to draw some serious respect in the Super Bowl market.
The Steelers are 8-0 for the first time in franchise history, besting undefeated starts from Pittsburgh's Super Bowl-winning teams in 1978 and 1979. After Sunday's narrow win over the Cowboys, Pittsburgh is +600 to win the Super Bowl and +300 to take the AFC - trailing only the Chiefs (+350, +175) in both markets.
However, last week's sloppy showing highlighted some potential concerns for those backing Pittsburgh in the futures market. Should bettors buy into this team's undefeated start, even at short odds?
Don't inflate an undefeated start
Anyone betting on a team that starts 8-0 should feel good about that squad's long-term outlook, and the Steelers are no exception. They've already earned impressive wins over the Titans (6-2) and Ravens (6-2), and their schedule is relatively light over the next eight weeks. Still, a hot start doesn't always portend a profitable finish.
Over the last 30 years, 20 teams have begun a season with an 8-0 record, with five winning the Super Bowl, while another five were the runner-up. But of the last nine teams to start 8-0, none won it all, and three lost in the Super Bowl. Those numbers can inspire optimism from an implied odds perspective, but the outcomes are far from an endorsement for blindly backing 8-0 clubs.
Things get even shakier when betting on the last undefeated team in any season. Since the Colts won the Super Bowl in 2006 following a 9-0 start, the last 18 teams to start the hottest in a campaign failed to secure a championship. In fact, Indianapolis is the only team this century to win the title as the last undefeated squad. The other teams failed over 25 attempts, logging an 0-9 Super Bowl record.
Since the merger, 12 of 74 teams (16.2%) to open with the league's best record ended the year hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. As impressive as Pittsburgh's start has been, it doesn't increase the chances of a Super Bowl victory.
Offense wins championships
For years, defense was the calling card for eventual Super Bowl champions. That simply isn't true anymore, and the data paints a grim picture for this year's early front-runner.
In 2008, the Steelers won the Super Bowl with the top-ranked defense and 21st-ranked offense by DVOA. Since then, 20 of the last 22 Super Bowl participants have fielded a top-seven offense in DVOA. As for the outliers, the 2015 Broncos (24th in offensive DVOA) boasted one of the best defenses ever, and the 2012 Ravens (13th) rode Joe Flacco's playoff performance that was among the best in NFL history, rivaling Joe Montana's 1990 postseason.
The average offensive DVOA rank for those teams was 5.7, and the average defensive DVOA rank was 11.9. Only nine of those 22 clubs benefitted from a top-10 defense, while two (the 2011 Patriots and 2017 Patriots) finished with a defense in the bottom three. Defense simply doesn't matter as much as offense in the modern NFL when it comes to title contention.
The Steelers have put together the league's fifth-best scoring offense (29.4 points per game) through nine weeks, though they're 25th in yards per play (5.2) and 24th in first downs per game (21). Their defense is among the NFL's best, while their offense ranks 15th in DVOA and 25th in PFF team grades, sporting a below-average offensive grade in all nine weeks thus far. That suggests a capped ceiling for Pittsburgh's offense, which would be a death knell for its title hopes.
Questions remain with Steelers
Pittsburgh isn't necessarily a bad bet in the futures market. Its defense is a key reason for the team's early-season success, and there are weapons available to improve the Steelers' offense.
But there's still work for them to do on that side of the ball to justify their short title price, and history doesn't give the Steelers the benefit of the doubt just because of their 8-0 start.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.