NFL division odds: Best bets, value plays after first 4 weeks
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We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and the divisional race is already starting to crystalize for a few teams. The AFC West is clearly the Chiefs' to lose, while the NFC East is anybody's to "win" - if you can even call it that with four sub-.500 teams.
Unlike the preseason divisional markets, which feature saturated pricing and relies heavily on blind prognostication, betting divisions in-season lets you attack value after gaining four weeks of valuable info. Here are my favorite divisional bets after the first quarter of the season:
Washington Football Team to win the NFC East (+1000)
Before the year, oddsmakers pegged Washington as one of the worst teams in the NFL. That hasn't necessarily changed over four weeks. But most didn't expect the Cowboys and Eagles to be similarly inept at the quarter mark, too.
Washington has the best defense in this division and already has a win over Philly, which is hampered by an inaccurate Carson Wentz and decimated offensive line. The Cowboys' defense might be one of the worst in NFL history, and the Giants' ceiling is capped without Saquon Barkey.
Washington isn't the best team in the NFC East, but it's only a half-game back from the division lead and plays just one team with a winning record over the next seven weeks. At 10-1, this is easily the best value on the entire board.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South (+105)
The Saints might be in trouble. They beat the Buccaneers in Week 1 despite an uneasy showing from Drew Brees. Then, in three games without Michael Thomas, they lost to the Raiders and Packers and were down 14 points to the Lions before roaring back (as Detroit's opponents tend to do).
This offense should find its footing again when Thomas returns, but Brees' play early in the year hints that the elite upside of previous Saints offenses could be a thing of the past. The bigger issue might be on defense, where New Orleans is allowing 30.8 points per game, eighth-worst in the NFL.
Compare all that to the Buccaneers, who rank sixth in PFF in offensive and defensive grades - teasing the upside we thought they had if they cleaned up their turnover issues. Sure enough, their turnover margin is plus-2 on the year, allowing top-tier talent on both sides of the ball to shine. Tampa Bay is the better of these two teams and has a one-game lead, making this an easy buy at plus-money.
Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South (-105)
The Colts are for real. They entered the week ranked No. 1 in DVOA and defensive DVOA, and they subsequently held the undefeated Bears to 11 points in an easy road win. Their net yards per play - a common tool used by handicappers to rate teams - is second-best at 1.1, just ahead of the undefeated Steelers (0.9), Packers (0.8), and Chiefs (0.7).
Indianapolis' schedule has been favorable, but it's still blown out its opposition aside from Week 1 when it outgained the Jaguars by 204 yards and lost thanks to a handful of key plays. This slate also hasn't been any easier than what the Patriots faced a year ago, and the Colts have allowed fewer yards through four games than New England's historically dominant defense did in the same stretch.
The biggest challengers to Indianapolis' divisional goals are the Titans, who have outscored three teams with losing records by a combined six points. Their schedule is on pause due to the team's coronavirus outbreak, leaving even more doubt in betting them to overtake the Colts. Indianapolis is the clear gem of this division, and the short price makes it even clearer.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.