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For all of the excitement about teams after the NFL draft, bettors know not to put too much stock into it for the upcoming season. Rookies rarely swing the betting market too far, and most of the best first-year players are stuck on teams that offer little betting value.
That's not always the case, however, and a few rookies are worth eyeing as we enter the 2020 season. Here are the 10 rookies who could have the biggest impact on the futures market or in weekly side action.
Joe Burrow, QB
Pick: No. 1 (Bengals)
It feels too obvious to put here, but this list would be incomplete with Burrow, the only rookie signal-caller likely to start from Day 1. The Bengals' fate is inextricably linked to Burrow's success; if the former LSU star can elevate Cincinnati's talented-but-flawed offense, this team could be a weekly surprise against the spread.
Justin Herbert, QB
Pick: No. 6 (Chargers)
This may not be the case right away - as we broke down Tuesday, Herbert is an underdog to start Week 1 - but it feels inevitable that the Oregon rookie will eventually get his shot to lead a loaded L.A. roster. The Chargers' defense has elite potential, and the offense is stocked with weapons. If Herbert is above average, L.A.'s preseason futures odds will look like a bargain.
Isaiah Simmons, LB
Pick: No. 8 (Cardinals)
Although the Cardinals' defense was awful last year, the team still went 5-10-1 with seven of those losses/ties coming by a combined 35 points. The offense should be much improved in Year 2 under Kliff Kingsbury, and Simmons could transform the identity of this defense given his versatility and elite skill set as an edge rusher and slot defender.
CJ Henderson, CB
Pick: No. 9 (Jaguars)
I know what you're thinking: Don't the Jaguars suck? The answer is probably yes. But if Henderson shows shutdown cover corner skills from Day 1 opposite rising defender Tre Herndon, Jacksonville could boast a legitimate secondary and take some pressure off Gardner Minshew and Co. on offense. That could be enough to win some games in an uncertain AFC South.
Jedrick Wills Jr., T
Pick: No. 10 (Browns)
The disaster that was the Browns' 2020 season had many scapegoats, but a shoddy offensive line deserves the brunt of the blame. Cleveland already brought in premier tackle Jack Conklin in free agency, and now it adds Wills, who is expected to be the opening-day starter at left tackle. While Baker Mayfield will likely get all the credit if his stats improve, Wills would deserve plenty, too.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Pick: No. 15 (Broncos)
The Broncos have arguably one of the most complete rosters in the league entering 2020. If quarterback Drew Lock doesn't pop, though, it's all for naught. That's what makes drafting Jeudy (and second-rounder KJ Hamler) so crucial for Denver, which is an explosive offense away from making some serious noise in the AFC playoff picture.
Jalen Reagor, WR
Pick: No. 21 (Eagles)
Reagor isn't the best receiver in this class, he wasn't the best value, and he likely won't have the best stats. But he could easily have the biggest impact for an Eagles offense that looked worlds different last year with and without a speedster to stretch the field. The TCU burner is a high-upside weapon who fits perfectly into the DeSean Jackson mold and could unlock Philly's scoring potential.
Patrick Queen, LB
Pick: No. 28 (Ravens)
If you didn't think the Ravens could get better after a 14-win season, turn on some tape of Queen, who popped with his energy and athleticism at LSU and fills arguably the biggest hole on Baltimore's roster at interior linebacker. It won't affect the Ravens' already saturated futures odds, but Queen is talented enough to swing games for the purple and black.
Xavier McKinney, S
Pick: No. 36 (Giants)
McKinney is one of the few players outside of the top 32 picks who can have the impact of a first-rounder. His talent and versatility at safety are a perfect fit with the Giants, whose secondary was embarrassingly bad a year ago. Coupling the McKinney pick with a couple of splashy free-agent signings on defense could limit the number of blowouts for New York in 2020.
Braden Mann, P
Pick: No. 191 (Jets)
Laugh all you want, but Mann is in line to make a real difference for the Jets next season. Consider this: New York ranked fifth in yards allowed per drive last year, but the team was 21st in touchdowns allowed per drive and surrendered the second-best starting field position on average. A few extra yards per punt could help the Jets' defense as much as anything, so don't discount the weekly contribution of a sixth-round punter.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
