Sage Rosenfels column: 5 QBs facing make-or-break seasons

Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football.

Even before the final games of 2016 are completed, NFL franchises are preparing for the 2017 season.

Their college and pro scouts are scanning the landscape as they await the draft and free agency. A few players who were "on the street" get signed as soon as each team's season ends. Then comes the Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, private workouts, free agency, and the draft.

Once the rat race ends to put the most talented team together, clubs conduct their spring and summer OTAs, as well as a required minicamp. Finally, as we enter mid-to-late June, the NFL takes its longest breather of the year. Coaches, players, and scouts get a much-needed month-long break before the chaos of NFL training camp ensues.

For me, this was a time to physically train to be in the best shape possible for camp. Mental preparation was also an important aspect of this break. A part of that mental preparation is reflection. I believe it's important for every player to ask himself questions about what his short- and long-term goals are leading into training camp.

For the quarterbacks of the NFL, there are a wide variety of answers to these questions. Some players are simply hoping to make the roster while others are wondering how to win another Super Bowl.

And for a few NFL starting quarterbacks, 2017 is a make-or-break season. If they play well, they will begin the 2018 season with the confidence of being the starter, some with a new contract. For those who play poorly this year, their time may be up as their current franchise's No. 1 quarterback.

This is my list of five NFL starting quarterbacks who need to have a strong year, or they may find themselves on the outs once January hits.

Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Despite being one of the most consistent winners in the NFL, Smith never seems to convince his team's fans that he is the long-term solution. He's like a Chevy Impala; he always gets you from point A to B, but the passengers are bored with the lack of style on the trip. Plus, the Impala always drops you off a block from your destination rather than delivering you to the red carpet. Smith is good, but never quite fills your appetite.

Once the Chiefs drafted the incredibly talented but raw Patrick Mahomes II, the writing was on the wall for Smith. Or was it? Andy Reid is going to play whoever he believes will win him the most football games and carry his team deep into the playoffs.

Luckily for the Chiefs, their head coach has a long track record of playing this type of hand correctly. Reid will be gauging his team's temperature every day of the season, and he will know exactly how to play the cards which gives the Chiefs their best chance to succeed.

I imagine we will see some of Mahomes at some point during the season. He could be thrown into the game in a random second quarter in September, or he could be starting a playoff game in January. When and how much he plays is up to Reid - and Smith is his No. 1 influencer.

No coach wants to bench a quarterback if the team is winning, even if he's playing poorly. The better Smith plays and the more the Chiefs win, the less we will see of Mahomes. If the passing attack in KC is the main reason for the Chiefs' failures, Smith may find himself on the bench - and looking for a new home next offseason.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

For Dolphins fans (Dolfans for those who don't know the official term), Tannehill is a controversial subject. There is plenty of evidence to support him, yet plenty of reasons to want a different quarterback. Statistically, he has been average to below average for most of his five-year career.

Under the direction of highly respected head coach/offensive coordinator Adam Gase, Tannehill played the best football of his career in 2016. The issue is that Tannehill got hurt in December, and couldn't finish the season. Through his first five years, Tannehill has yet to start a playoff game. He is like and unlike Smith - unexciting, but unable to win consistently.

Dolfans will always have high expectations for their quarterback. This is what happens when you have one of the greatest pure throwers in NFL history leading your team for almost two decades. That high level of play is still implanted in the minds of Dolfans.

More importantly, this Miami team needs to win now. The team has spent a lot of money in free agency in recent years, and the roster does have talent. Tannehill needs to come through with the best year of his career, or else the team may decide to simply move on.

This decision will come down to a multitude of factors. I believe upper management will fully consider Gase's opinion once this season ends. This coach knows what an elite quarterback looks like. Secondly, if the team starts losing, Dolfans won't show up to home games.

That's a fact of life in South Florida. Many Dolfans are fair-weather because, well, the weather is so fair in Miami. If they stop showing, smart businessman and owner Stephen M. Ross will want to change his business strategy. And he'll start not with the head coach, but with Tannehill.

Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Palmer followed the best year of his career in 2015, with one of his worst. That's a discouraging development for a quarterback who will be 38 by season's end.

After his spectacular play two seasons ago, one that saw him break multiple franchise records, Palmer was given an extension and is now under contract through 2018. But that doesn't mean the Cardinals have boxed themselves into a corner; Arizona would "only" be hamstrung with $6 million in dead money if it were to release Palmer after this season.

The reason I have Palmer in the make-or-break category is based off his 2016 play and his age. If he finds the fountain of youth like he did two seasons ago, Arizona will stick with Palmer, probably signing him to another extension. But if 2017 is a carbon copy of last year, the Cardinals and head coach Bruce Arians will have a major decision to make.

Arians loves the vertical passing game. He likes to push the ball down the field and test a secondary's weaknesses. As a quarterback enters his late 30s, most begin to suffer from a weaker arm. Tom Brady and Brett Favre are the exception, not the norm. If Palmer shows that he is no longer a threat to NFL secondaries, Arians will have to overhaul his passing game philosophy. Either that or go find himself a quarterback who can fit his system.

Since the 2018 NFL Draft is supposedly going to be loaded with talented quarterbacks, the timing may be right for the Cardinals and Arians to move on from Carson Palmer. Even if Palmer does have a 2015-esque season again, the Cardinals may start looking to the future sooner rather than later.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

After being drafted third overall in 2014, Bortles looked to be on the right trajectory as he headed into his third NFL season. His rookie year was inconsistent at best, which wasn’t a surprise since Bortles was a raw but talented player on a poor team. His sophomore season, at least according to the statistics, had the Jaguars believing that they had indeed found their franchise quarterback for the next decade.

The rug was then pulled out from under the Jaguars' feet as Bortles ended the season with one of the worst QBRs in the league. His mechanics and footwork failed, and the team won only three games. The coaching staff was fired, yet Bortles remains. If he plays as well or better than he did in 2015, I can see executive vice-president Tom Coughlin working to extend Bortles. If the quarterback struggles as he did last year, Coughlin will move on.

One of Coughlin's strengths is his ability to identify problems on a football team. It's easy to blame the quarterback for everything, but in truth, many times the issues are with other positions or the coaching staff. Coughlin has seen the highest levels of both, and it won't take him long to figure out if Bortles is the long-term answer the Jaguars have been searching for.

Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota may have the most unusual quarterback situation in the NFL.

Bradford, who broke the NFL record for completion percentage, is on the last year of his contract. The team has had no discussions about re-signing Bradford, not because they don't like him, but because Teddy Bridgewater is also on the roster. Before his injury, the Vikings' entire franchise and fan base loved Bridgewater. His knee injury recovery is still a mystery, as is the "toll" aspect of his expiring contract.

If Bradford plays as well or better than his previous season, the Vikings may decide to give him the third major contract of his career. If he doesn't, and Teddy is healthy, the Vikings may go back to Bridgewater, who is younger and much cheaper.

The wild card is if Bradford plays poorly and Bridgewater's knee never fully heals. This would mean the Vikings may have to use the nuclear option and completely clean house in their quarterback room. This whole saga could be a week-to-week soap opera that follows Mike Zimmer's team all year. Either way, whoever plays quarterback for Minnesota will have to play at a high level to be named the starter for 2018.

Playing quarterback in the NFL demands you focus on every play, practice, game, and season. Pressure is something that they deal with during almost every minute of every day. But for the five veteran quarterbacks listed above, there is even more pressure heading into this season.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)