4a:I[29208,["/_next/static/chunks/2jhrjnncm5raz.js","/_next/static/chunks/1yt446igj3lq7.js","/_next/static/chunks/1pjcq3d9ovo4r.js","/_next/static/chunks/0l-6rirxtdwmo.js","/_next/static/chunks/2garizayuhlpl.js","/_next/static/chunks/3-0vwtd1eg-pp.js","/_next/static/chunks/2udqgiyebnpne.js","/_next/static/chunks/3hzkipkkj6ddp.js","/_next/static/chunks/0dsjsiwpje-72.js","/_next/static/chunks/3vdprxpabg9bg.js","/_next/static/chunks/0s7b7lxeeaa3w.js"],"default"] 3e:T19e4,

As much flair as the top half of the first round will have to fans, what happens late in the round matters more. When it comes to first-round betting markets, it's important to know if teams are looking to keep their pick or move up once the draft starts April 28.

Remember, first-round selections receive a fifth-year option, which means those players will be affordable for longer. In the modern NFL, team decision-makers have figured out certain positions warrant more salary cap allocation. With a fifth year of affordability up for grabs late on the first night, higher-paid positions are worth reaching for to give a team an extra year of cost certainty.

Draft positional totals

POSITION	TOTAL	OVER/UNDER
Quarterbacks	2.5	-250/+190
Running Backs	0.5	+145/-190
Wide Receivers	5.5	-250/+195
Tight Ends	0.5	+475/-700
Offensive Linemen	7.5	+135/-165
Cornerbacks	4.5	+120/-150
Safeties	1.5	-250/+200

Sportsbooks are less willing to put up totals for defensive linemen and linebackers as various players have been labeled as both in recent years. For example, edge rushers are just as likely to play on the defensive line in a 4-3 alignment as they are to rush from the outside linebacker position in a 3-4 scheme. Rather than deal with this gray area, sportsbooks just removed the market from their offerings.

Last year, there was a late run on edge rushers, with four going in the last five picks for Round 1. That's because:

High-impact edge rushers demand a large salary after their rookie contract expires
The pool of edge rusher prospects is relatively large
A first-round-worthy quarterback or offensive tackle will be reached for earlier
Other defensive players, interior offensive linemen, and running backs are more replaceable

Since there's no betting market for edge rushers, we have to apply the demand at that position to the other positional markets. If an extra edge rusher takes one of the 32 first-round slots, that means they're taking a spot from another position.

The high-profile quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions get attention, but it's important to remember what the implied probability of their odds are.

POSTION	BET	PROBABILITY
QB	Over 2.5 (-250)	71.4%
RB	Under 0.5 (-190)	65.5%
WR	Over 5.5 (-250)	71.4%

Despite various moments of buzz surrounding Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, or even Carson Strong, I don't think there's a better than 71.4% chance that a team nabs a quarterback late.

On the other hand, there's a better than two-thirds chance that no team wastes a first-rounder on a tailback, so laying -190 on "under 0.5 running backs" is still acceptable.

It's also hard to imagine both Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson getting snubbed in the first round given the apparent value of wide receivers following offseason deals for Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and mid-tier pass-catchers.

Best bet

Over 15.5 defensive players (-125)

I have 28 players I'm confident will be taken within the first 32 picks. Nine of them are in the front seven and six are in the defensive backfield. That leaves one more defensive player needed to go in the other four picks. With four chances to win something priced close to a coin flip, that's worth a bet.

Of course, "under 16.5 offensive players" is the same bet. Should your sportsbook offer this option at a better price, that's the way to play it.

Best value

Under 7.5 offensive linemen (+135)

For eight offensive linemen to go in the first round, the big four tackles, along with Tyler Smith, and three interior linemen - Tyler Linderbaum, Kenyon Green, and Zion Johnson - all have to go in the top 32. At a plus-money price, the under is worth it.

Under 1.5 safeties (+200)

Despite being the class of his position, Kyle Hamilton's stock is seemingly dropping. Part of that is his combine measurables, but it's also because safeties are deemed replaceable. It'd be a surprise to see a team reach for one at the end of the first round to push this over unless Jalen Pitre (first round +200) gets picked.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3f:T19e4,

Draft positional totals

POSITION	TOTAL	OVER/UNDER
Quarterbacks	2.5	-250/+190
Running Backs	0.5	+145/-190
Wide Receivers	5.5	-250/+195
Tight Ends	0.5	+475/-700
Offensive Linemen	7.5	+135/-165
Cornerbacks	4.5	+120/-150
Safeties	1.5	-250/+200

Last year, there was a late run on edge rushers, with four going in the last five picks for Round 1. That's because:

High-impact edge rushers demand a large salary after their rookie contract expires
The pool of edge rusher prospects is relatively large
A first-round-worthy quarterback or offensive tackle will be reached for earlier
Other defensive players, interior offensive linemen, and running backs are more replaceable

The high-profile quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions get attention, but it's important to remember what the implied probability of their odds are.

POSTION	BET	PROBABILITY
QB	Over 2.5 (-250)	71.4%
RB	Under 0.5 (-190)	65.5%
WR	Over 5.5 (-250)	71.4%

Despite various moments of buzz surrounding Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, or even Carson Strong, I don't think there's a better than 71.4% chance that a team nabs a quarterback late.

On the other hand, there's a better than two-thirds chance that no team wastes a first-rounder on a tailback, so laying -190 on "under 0.5 running backs" is still acceptable.

Best bet

Over 15.5 defensive players (-125)

Of course, "under 16.5 offensive players" is the same bet. Should your sportsbook offer this option at a better price, that's the way to play it.

Best value

Under 7.5 offensive linemen (+135)

Under 1.5 safeties (+200)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Most of your bets will be settled within the first two hours of Day 1 of the NFL draft. Hopefully, that also applies to our favorite bets to be picked in the top 32. However, there's also a surefire way to keep your attention locked in through the final picks of the first round. One of those ways is to identify the players who could shockingly have their names called Thursday night.

There's at least one surprise in the first round every year. The Raiders selected Alex Leatherwood on Day 1 in 2021, despite most draftniks believing he'd be around for Day 2.

Here are the players who oddsmakers don't expect to be selected Thursday night. They could offer a nice return if we can identify which ones might sneak their way into the top 32.

1st-round draft pick odds

PLAYER	POSITION	ODDS
Lewis Cine	S	+120
Tyler Smith	OL	+120
Travis Jones	DT	+125
Logan Hall	DE	+130
Bernhard Raimann	OT	+135
Kaiir Elam	CB	+135
Skyy Moore	WR	+140
Breece Hall	RB	+145
George Pickens	WR	+150
Roger McCreary	CB	+150
Kyler Gordon	CB	+150
David Ojabo	EDGE	+200
Quay Walker	LB	+200
Drake Jackson	EDGE	+225
Daniel Faalele	OT	+225
Jaquan Brisker	S	+250
Kenneth Walker	RB	+300
DeMarvin Leal	DE	+300
Jalen Pitre	S	+300
Tariq Woolen	CB	+300
Christian Harris	ILB	+350
Troy Anderson	LB	+350
Chad Muma	ILB	+400
Trey McBride	TE	+400
Isaiah Spiller	RB	+500
Abraham Lucas	OT	+500
Darian Kinnard	G	+500
Perrion Winfrey	DT	+500
Jalen Tolbert	WR	+550
Carson Strong	QB	+650
Justyn Ross	WR	+650
John Metchie	WR	+650
James Cook	RB	+1600

Teams with two first-round picks - with one coming in the teens or later - are more likely to reach off the board in the opening round. The thinking is that those clubs won't take the same heat as if they were going all-in on a reach if they're more conservative with their first selection.

Here are some teams that are candidates to reach with two first-rounders and their positional needs:

TEAM	1ST-ROUND PICKS	NEED
Texans	3 / 13	OL/DL/DB
Eagles	15 / 18	WR/DB
Saints	16 / 19	QB/OL/WR/DB
Packers	22 / 28	WR/OL/LB/CB
Chiefs	29 / 30	WR/DL/LB/CB

Each one of these clubs also has at least one pick in the second round, which might make them less likely to reach. The Chiefs and Packers have two selections in the second round, meaning they could fill depth with those picks and take a big swing in Round 1. The Texans are also a wild card at this point, a la the Raiders of years past.

Best value bets

David Ojabo (+200)

Talent evaluators don't seem to care about Ojabo tearing his Achilles at the NFL combine. He's got first-round ability and production. A team could stash this quality player at a key position if they have some extra draft capital - like Kansas City does - and are willing to wait a year.

Jalen Pitre (+300)

After Kyle Hamilton, the second safety coming off the board is anyone's guess. Since Hamilton will go first, there's no fun in the "first safety drafted." However, taking the best price among a positional group is a good strategy. The hard part is deciding whether Pitre is the next safety picked and if that happens in the first round. The Baylor product's talent and ability to alter a game is undeniable.

Perrion Winfrey (+500)

Winfrey has a particular skill set as a 3-4 defensive tackle prospect. The Oklahoma product's explosiveness off the ball might be enough to get a team that runs the same scheme to take a shot on him since clubs are now placing importance on getting pressure via the interior.

Carson Strong (+650)

It's unlikely Strong gets picked in the first round. But choosing the Nevada quarterback would give a team a fifth year on the entry-level contract to develop a prospect who was a projected first-rounder going into last season. All it takes for a big price to cash late in Round 1 is a general manager believing Strong is the most attractive option among a group of quarterbacks with shorter odds.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

41:T1d27,

There's at least one surprise in the first round every year. The Raiders selected Alex Leatherwood on Day 1 in 2021, despite most draftniks believing he'd be around for Day 2.

Here are the players who oddsmakers don't expect to be selected Thursday night. They could offer a nice return if we can identify which ones might sneak their way into the top 32.

1st-round draft pick odds

PLAYER	POSITION	ODDS
Lewis Cine	S	+120
Tyler Smith	OL	+120
Travis Jones	DT	+125
Logan Hall	DE	+130
Bernhard Raimann	OT	+135
Kaiir Elam	CB	+135
Skyy Moore	WR	+140
Breece Hall	RB	+145
George Pickens	WR	+150
Roger McCreary	CB	+150
Kyler Gordon	CB	+150
David Ojabo	EDGE	+200
Quay Walker	LB	+200
Drake Jackson	EDGE	+225
Daniel Faalele	OT	+225
Jaquan Brisker	S	+250
Kenneth Walker	RB	+300
DeMarvin Leal	DE	+300
Jalen Pitre	S	+300
Tariq Woolen	CB	+300
Christian Harris	ILB	+350
Troy Anderson	LB	+350
Chad Muma	ILB	+400
Trey McBride	TE	+400
Isaiah Spiller	RB	+500
Abraham Lucas	OT	+500
Darian Kinnard	G	+500
Perrion Winfrey	DT	+500
Jalen Tolbert	WR	+550
Carson Strong	QB	+650
Justyn Ross	WR	+650
John Metchie	WR	+650
James Cook	RB	+1600

Here are some teams that are candidates to reach with two first-rounders and their positional needs:

TEAM	1ST-ROUND PICKS	NEED
Texans	3 / 13	OL/DL/DB
Eagles	15 / 18	WR/DB
Saints	16 / 19	QB/OL/WR/DB
Packers	22 / 28	WR/OL/LB/CB
Chiefs	29 / 30	WR/DL/LB/CB

Best value bets

David Ojabo (+200)

Jalen Pitre (+300)

Perrion Winfrey (+500)

Carson Strong (+650)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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The first of three big New Year's Day games is a clash between teams that thought they had a case for the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State's hopes died on a failed stretch to the goal line, while Notre Dame just lacked a signature win.

Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (-2.5, 45.5)

Line movement

I wish there was more movement. The line opened Notre Dame -2.5 and only made small moves toward Oklahoma State, with various flashes at -1.5. Those of us who want +3 with Cowboys just haven't been given the chance. The total has uneventfully toggled between 45 and 45.5.

On the field

Notre Dame is favored in part due to the rare case of excitement following the departure of the program's winningest coach. The Fighting Irish promoted defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, and a viral video of the team's wildly excited reaction circulated around the same time Brian Kelly was testing out a Southern drawl for his new LSU job.

Despite the glee surrounding Freeman's appointment, Notre Dame will be without key contributors on each side of the ball - tailback Kyren Williams and safety Kyle Hamilton are preparing for the NFL draft. The Irish, whose best win this season was against Wisconsin, now face next-level competition without their best playmakers.

There's only a little more certainty about Oklahoma State's approach. The team's best unit is its defense, but while the Irish promoted their defensive coordinator, the Cowboys lost theirs (to the other OSU).

While Jaylen Warren wasn't available to make that last-second dash to the end zone in the Big 12 championship, he's expected to join Spencer Sanders and Tay Martin in ensuring the offense complements a defense that swarms in waves.

Whether super senior Jack Coan or Tyler Buchner, the program's future, get the majority of snaps, both are likely to struggle. The Cowboys' top priority will be suppressing tight end Michael Mayer - especially on third down - to force punts and make this game less Fiesta and more siesta for the Irish faithful.

How to bet the game

Notre Dame's schedule hasn't been difficult enough to tell us what its defense is capable of. North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Toledo all scored at will, even with Hamilton in the lineup for some of those matchups.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State found its way into the mid-20s - with the exception of the fateful final play against Baylor - making it the more reliable team. Mike Gundy will have the Cowboys up for a fight, while Notre Dame appears more excited for the future - and rightly so. I'll wait for a +3 pop for Oklahoma State. If I can't get it, anything associated with a plus-sign is a good bet in my books.

Pick: Oklahoma State +3 (-120 or better) / Oklahoma State ML (+110) if +3 never comes

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

43:T137f,

Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (-2.5, 45.5)

Line movement

On the field

How to bet the game

Pick: Oklahoma State +3 (-120 or better) / Oklahoma State ML (+110) if +3 never comes

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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When bowl lines were released, we wrote about openers to bet and outlined potentially significant moneyline movers. A week later, the dust has mostly settled, and it's time to survey the on-field matchups. Who has the tactical advantage? Which coaches' teams have historically overachieved? Plus, which big-time players won't be in action?

Biggest SP+ discrepancies

SP+ ratings are part of the recipe for bowl lines. While overall ratings are already built into the point spread, here are the biggest ratings discrepancies in terms of good offenses facing bad defenses, and vice versa.

BOWL	OFFENSE	DEFENSE
Cure Bowl	Coastal Carolina (12)	Northern Illinois (115)
Duke's Mayo Bowl	North Carolina (9)	South Carolina (51)
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl	Oregon State (15)	Utah State (80)
LendingTree Bowl	Liberty (54)	Eastern Michigan (120)
Fenway Bowl	Virginia (5)	SMU (72)
Fenway Bowl	SMU (19)	Virginia (101)

The Fenway Bowl offers a rare double mismatch with two offenses that are much better than their defensive counterparts. They may not be able to take advantage of the Green Monster, but both teams should dent the scoreboard if it's anything close to baseball weather.

BOWL	DEFENSE	OFFENSE
Bahamas Bowl	Toledo (20)	Middle Tennessee (91)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Minnesota (11)	West Virginia (73)
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Tulsa (54)	Old Dominion (106)
Arizona Bowl	Boise St. (26)	Central Michigan (61)
Citrus Bowl	Kentucky (35)	Iowa (100)
Fiesta Bowl	Notre Dame (13)	Oklahoma State (67)

Some bad offenses will be on display this bowl season and, unsurprisingly, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, and Iowa are all underdogs.

Coaches to bet

Coaches have different goals during bowl season; even the same coach may shift their aim from year to year. However, it's worth seeing whose teams typically exceed expectations.

COACH	TEAM	ATS RECORD
Craig Bohl	Wyoming	3-0
Chris Creighton	Eastern Michigan	3-0
P.J. Fleck	Minnesota	4-1
Hugh Freeze	Liberty	4-1
Scott Satterfield	Louisville	3-1
Jeff Monken	Army	3-1
Jimbo Fisher	Texas A&M	7-3
Kirby Smart	Georgia	5-2
Dave Doeren	NC State	5-2
Kirk Ferentz	Iowa	11-6
Dabo Swinney	Clemson	11-6
Kyle Whittingham	Utah	9-5
Mike Gundy	Oklahoma State	9-6
James Franklin	Penn State	6-3

Sample-size issues affect a lot of the data here. Swinney has piled up the postseason games thanks to a couple of two-game bowl seasons, though many of those ATS wins came as an underdog with Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence under center. This year, Clemson's motivation in the Cheez-It Bowl is a significant question mark.

Coaches to fade

Do these coaches tend to be more interested in evaluating young players with an eye toward next year, or do they just not have the desire to create a custom game plan for their opponent? We can't know for sure, but it's worth pondering before placing a bet.

HEAD COACH	TEAM	ATS RECORD
Dana Holgorsen	Houston	1-7
Rick Stockstill	Middle Tennessee	2-6
Mike Leach	Mississippi State	3-7
Dave Clawson	Wake Forest	2-5
Jason Candle	Toledo	1-3
Seth Littrell	North Texas	1-3
Pat Narduzzi	Pittsburgh	1-3
Brady Hoke	San Diego State	1-3-1

The list of poor bowl coaches is shorter, for good reason - if you underperform in bowl season, you don't last long. Holgorsen and Leach have poor postseason records, yet they were still considered desirable hires by their new schools.

Significant player absences (opt-outs, transfers)

It used to be that only high-end NFL prospects would opt out of bowl games to avoid risking injury, while anyone who wasn't sure to be drafted in the top 10 would look to showcase their talents and boost their stock.

Now more players are bailing for the draft, and the transfer portal has introduced another reason for absences. Key players, including starting quarterbacks, are entering the transfer portal, and some are leaving their teams high and dry at the most critical position in sports.

PLAYER	TEAM	REASON
Kayvon Thibodeaux (DL)	Oregon	Draft
DJ James (CB)	Oregon	Draft
Jadon Haselwood (WR)	Oklahoma	Transfer
Perrion Winfrey (DL)	Oklahoma	Draft
Nik Bonitto (DL)	Oklahoma	Draft
Kyren Williams (RB)	Notre Dame	Draft
Kyle Hamilton (S)	Notre Dame	Draft
Treylon Burks (WR)	Arkansas	Draft
Reggie Roberson (WR)	SMU	Draft
Danny Gray (WR)	SMU	Draft
Jacob Copeland (WR)	Florida	Draft
Bo Nix (QB)	Auburn	Transfer
Zach Calzada (QB)	Texas A&M	Transfer
Max Johnson (QB)	LSU	Transfer
Chevan Cordeiro (QB)	Hawaii	Transfer
Max Borghi (RB)	Washington State	Draft
Tyler Goodson (RB)	Iowa	Draft

If you're reading the tea leaves provided by the line movement for these games, Kenny Pickett seems unlikely to play, but that's yet to be announced, and he may want to appear in a New Year's Six bowl for Pitt after so much time there. Quarterback Jake Haener's status for Fresno State has been somewhat unclear as well, dropping the line to -11 against UTEP.

Notable trends

These schools are coming in hot this postseason:

TEAM	TREND
Toledo	4-1 ATS in last 5 games
Western Kentucky	5-1 ATS in last 6 games
UAB	6-1 ATS in last 7 games
Utah State	6-1 ATS in last 7 games
North Texas	5-0 ATS in last 5 games
Michigan	11-2 ATS this season (best in FBS)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

45:T271c,

Biggest SP+ discrepancies

BOWL	OFFENSE	DEFENSE
Cure Bowl	Coastal Carolina (12)	Northern Illinois (115)
Duke's Mayo Bowl	North Carolina (9)	South Carolina (51)
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl	Oregon State (15)	Utah State (80)
LendingTree Bowl	Liberty (54)	Eastern Michigan (120)
Fenway Bowl	Virginia (5)	SMU (72)
Fenway Bowl	SMU (19)	Virginia (101)

BOWL	DEFENSE	OFFENSE
Bahamas Bowl	Toledo (20)	Middle Tennessee (91)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Minnesota (11)	West Virginia (73)
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Tulsa (54)	Old Dominion (106)
Arizona Bowl	Boise St. (26)	Central Michigan (61)
Citrus Bowl	Kentucky (35)	Iowa (100)
Fiesta Bowl	Notre Dame (13)	Oklahoma State (67)

Some bad offenses will be on display this bowl season and, unsurprisingly, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, and Iowa are all underdogs.

Coaches to bet

Coaches have different goals during bowl season; even the same coach may shift their aim from year to year. However, it's worth seeing whose teams typically exceed expectations.

COACH	TEAM	ATS RECORD
Craig Bohl	Wyoming	3-0
Chris Creighton	Eastern Michigan	3-0
P.J. Fleck	Minnesota	4-1
Hugh Freeze	Liberty	4-1
Scott Satterfield	Louisville	3-1
Jeff Monken	Army	3-1
Jimbo Fisher	Texas A&M	7-3
Kirby Smart	Georgia	5-2
Dave Doeren	NC State	5-2
Kirk Ferentz	Iowa	11-6
Dabo Swinney	Clemson	11-6
Kyle Whittingham	Utah	9-5
Mike Gundy	Oklahoma State	9-6
James Franklin	Penn State	6-3

Coaches to fade

HEAD COACH	TEAM	ATS RECORD
Dana Holgorsen	Houston	1-7
Rick Stockstill	Middle Tennessee	2-6
Mike Leach	Mississippi State	3-7
Dave Clawson	Wake Forest	2-5
Jason Candle	Toledo	1-3
Seth Littrell	North Texas	1-3
Pat Narduzzi	Pittsburgh	1-3
Brady Hoke	San Diego State	1-3-1

Significant player absences (opt-outs, transfers)

PLAYER	TEAM	REASON
Kayvon Thibodeaux (DL)	Oregon	Draft
DJ James (CB)	Oregon	Draft
Jadon Haselwood (WR)	Oklahoma	Transfer
Perrion Winfrey (DL)	Oklahoma	Draft
Nik Bonitto (DL)	Oklahoma	Draft
Kyren Williams (RB)	Notre Dame	Draft
Kyle Hamilton (S)	Notre Dame	Draft
Treylon Burks (WR)	Arkansas	Draft
Reggie Roberson (WR)	SMU	Draft
Danny Gray (WR)	SMU	Draft
Jacob Copeland (WR)	Florida	Draft
Bo Nix (QB)	Auburn	Transfer
Zach Calzada (QB)	Texas A&M	Transfer
Max Johnson (QB)	LSU	Transfer
Chevan Cordeiro (QB)	Hawaii	Transfer
Max Borghi (RB)	Washington State	Draft
Tyler Goodson (RB)	Iowa	Draft

Notable trends

These schools are coming in hot this postseason:

TEAM	TREND
Toledo	4-1 ATS in last 5 games
Western Kentucky	5-1 ATS in last 6 games
UAB	6-1 ATS in last 7 games
Utah State	6-1 ATS in last 7 games
North Texas	5-0 ATS in last 5 games
Michigan	11-2 ATS this season (best in FBS)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Hamilton","type":"PlayerTag","images":{"small":"https://d1si3tbndbzwz9.cloudfront.net/transparent_default_headshot_small.png"},"api_uri":"/ncaaf/players/145659","colours":["0C2340","C89600"],"subscribable_alerts":[{"key":"touchdown","default":false,"display":"Touchdown"},{"key":"sack","default":true,"display":"Sack"},{"key":"interception","default":true,"display":"Interception"},{"key":"fumble","default":true,"display":"Forced Fumble"},{"key":"final_player_stats","default":false,"display":"Final Player Stats"},{"key":"player_news","default":true,"display":"Breaking News"}],"has_transparent_headshots":false}],"display_type":"default"}}] 46:T653,

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is skipping the Fiesta Bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft, he announced on Friday.

Running back Kyren Williams also announced that he will forgo the postseason and declared for the draft.

"First off, I want to say thank you," Hamilton wrote on social media. "Thank you for allowing me an opportunity to attend the greatest university in the world. The relationships I have made the past three years are invaluable and remind me that my decision as a 17-year-old to commit to the University of Notre Dame was the best decision of my life."

Hamilton is expected to be a top-10 selection next spring. He finished his Fighting Irish career with 34 tackles and three interceptions in seven contests.

The 2020 All-American suffered a season-ending knee injury in Notre Dame's 31-16 victory over USC on Oct. 23. He's expected to be healthy as he begins the process of going pro.

Meanwhile, Williams led Notre Dame with 1,005 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns this season, adding 42 receptions for 359 yards and three receiving scores.

47:T653,

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is skipping the Fiesta Bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft, he announced on Friday.

Running back Kyren Williams also announced that he will forgo the postseason and declared for the draft.

Hamilton is expected to be a top-10 selection next spring. He finished his Fighting Irish career with 34 tackles and three interceptions in seven contests.

The 2020 All-American suffered a season-ending knee injury in Notre Dame's 31-16 victory over USC on Oct. 23. He's expected to be healthy as he begins the process of going pro.

Meanwhile, Williams led Notre Dame with 1,005 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns this season, adding 42 receptions for 359 yards and three receiving scores.

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Hamilton","type":"PlayerTag","images":{"small":"https://d1si3tbndbzwz9.cloudfront.net/transparent_default_headshot_small.png"},"api_uri":"/ncaaf/players/145659","colours":["0C2340","C89600"],"subscribable_alerts":[{"key":"touchdown","default":false,"display":"Touchdown"},{"key":"sack","default":true,"display":"Sack"},{"key":"interception","default":true,"display":"Interception"},{"key":"fumble","default":true,"display":"Forced Fumble"},{"key":"final_player_stats","default":false,"display":"Final Player Stats"},{"key":"player_news","default":true,"display":"Breaking News"}],"has_transparent_headshots":false}],"display_type":"default"}}] 48:T253e,

We were so close to a sweep last week!

A 5-2 record in the Saturday Seven saw our underdogs with value miss out on a perfect week when Malik Willis threw into quadruple coverage while Liberty had the back door in sight. Then, a series of unfortunate events for Louisville (+4) gave Clemson back-to-back covers and was submitted to the Bad Beat Hall of Fame for consideration. At 40-29-1, we look to stay comfortably profitable down the stretch.

Central Florida @ SMU (-7, 60.5)

Since a blowout loss to Cincinnati, UCF is quietly finding its groove. The Knights have played well defensively in three straight wins during their first year under Gus Malzahn. The offense could have been more impressive at Tulane last week, but UCF is a sneaky 6-3.

Meanwhile, SMU's season has gone off the rails and Sonny Dykes is receiving attention for a Power 5 job. Losses to Houston and Memphis likely won't change that, but it will sap the enthusiasm of the players, who have already clinched a bowl trip they may take without their current head coach.

Pick: UCF +7

West Virginia @ Kansas State (-6.5, 47)

Kudos to Kansas State for becoming bowl eligible, but its three-game winning streak consists of wins over Kansas and two teams that later fired their head coaches. My excitement is tempered.

Oklahoma State stifled West Virginia last week, and as a result, we're probably getting a few more points than we should with these evenly matched teams. The Mountaineers need two more wins to get to a bowl game of their own. They'll have a better time moving the ball this week, and this will be inside a one-score game.

Pick: West Virginia +6.5

No. 1 Georgia @ Tennessee (+20, 56)

Fading Georgia is no fun - you spend the entire game fearing a defensive touchdown will blow it open. However, the Bulldogs' opponents haven't been offensively capable of getting under the number late.

The Volunteers, however, can score more than most. If they can get one touchdown early and one late, a comfortable 34-20 Bulldogs win would get Vols backers the money. In a year where the other top teams routinely get scared by what's deemed unworthy competition, at least Hendon Hooker can keep Tennessee in touch.

Pick: Tennessee +20

Miami @ Florida State (+2.5, 61)

As always, we'd prefer to get +3 here, but I like the Seminoles to win outright. FSU was ravaged by the flu, and with Jordan Travis out, it was forced into a full game of McKenzie Milton against NC State's defense.

Whether it's the softer Miami defense or the return of a dual-threat starting quarterback, there's some value in the Seminoles. Their defense has improved, particularly against the run, and that will make life more difficult for the Hurricanes, who remain a tad overrated after a few straight wins.

Pick: Florida State +2.5 (wait to try to get +3 -120)

Hawaii @ UNLV (+3, 57)

Since I'm not going to give UNLV too much credit for beating New Mexico, I'm not going to crush the Rebels for letting pro prospect Carson Strong throw all over them the week before that either. But I will look at their previous October results, and I see competitive games against the middle of the Mountain West.

Now UNLV gets a visit from Hawaii, which barely cashed for us last week in a disappointing game on the island. The Rainbow Warriors are coming back to the mainland, where all they've done this season is get smoked by any team with a pulse. Still tasting victory, UNLV gets it done again.

Pick: UNLV +3

No. 9 Notre Dame @ Virginia (+5.5, 64.5)

Virginia's offense is one of the most underappreciated entities in college football. Brennan Armstrong's involvement is mandatory to make this bet, but if he's healthy, he'll be slinging it to an assortment of receivers to a degree that Notre Dame hasn't seen this season. With Kyle Hamilton likely out for the Irish, UVA will challenge Notre Dame's secondary to keep up. I'm not sure the Irish can do it.

Pick: Virginia +5.5

Washington State @ No. 3 Oregon (-14, 57.5)

A double dip! The only other time we used a play from the early week lookahead to the biggest games of the week was when we were all over NC State to knock off Clemson in September.

For those cashing along the way this season, you know we've had great success with the Cougars, and this is another good spot for Jayden de Laura and Co. to be competitive in Eugene. The Ducks went to Washington in a rivalry game and sent the Huskies packing. Next week, Oregon heads to Utah for what should be a showdown of the league's top two teams before a potential rematch in the Pac-12 title game. This game is sandwiched in there, with the Cougars coming off their bye and a comfortable road win as a big under dog in Tempe. Wazzu is a must-play this week getting two touchdowns.

Pick: Washington State +14

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

49:T253e,

We were so close to a sweep last week!

Central Florida @ SMU (-7, 60.5)

Pick: UCF +7

West Virginia @ Kansas State (-6.5, 47)

Kudos to Kansas State for becoming bowl eligible, but its three-game winning streak consists of wins over Kansas and two teams that later fired their head coaches. My excitement is tempered.

Pick: West Virginia +6.5

No. 1 Georgia @ Tennessee (+20, 56)

Pick: Tennessee +20

Miami @ Florida State (+2.5, 61)

Pick: Florida State +2.5 (wait to try to get +3 -120)

Hawaii @ UNLV (+3, 57)

Pick: UNLV +3

No. 9 Notre Dame @ Virginia (+5.5, 64.5)

Pick: Virginia +5.5

Washington State @ No. 3 Oregon (-14, 57.5)

A double dip! The only other time we used a play from the early week lookahead to the biggest games of the week was when we were all over NC State to knock off Clemson in September.

Pick: Washington State +14

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Kyle Hamilton

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