CFB Week 11 Best Bets: Tennessee, Florida State among 7 'dogs with bite

We were so close to a sweep last week!

A 5-2 record in the Saturday Seven saw our underdogs with value miss out on a perfect week when Malik Willis threw into quadruple coverage while Liberty had the back door in sight. Then, a series of unfortunate events for Louisville (+4) gave Clemson back-to-back covers and was submitted to the Bad Beat Hall of Fame for consideration. At 40-29-1, we look to stay comfortably profitable down the stretch.

Central Florida @ SMU (-7, 60.5)

Since a blowout loss to Cincinnati, UCF is quietly finding its groove. The Knights have played well defensively in three straight wins during their first year under Gus Malzahn. The offense could have been more impressive at Tulane last week, but UCF is a sneaky 6-3.

Meanwhile, SMU's season has gone off the rails and Sonny Dykes is receiving attention for a Power 5 job. Losses to Houston and Memphis likely won't change that, but it will sap the enthusiasm of the players, who have already clinched a bowl trip they may take without their current head coach.

Pick: UCF +7

West Virginia @ Kansas State (-6.5, 47)

Kudos to Kansas State for becoming bowl eligible, but its three-game winning streak consists of wins over Kansas and two teams that later fired their head coaches. My excitement is tempered.

Oklahoma State stifled West Virginia last week, and as a result, we're probably getting a few more points than we should with these evenly matched teams. The Mountaineers need two more wins to get to a bowl game of their own. They'll have a better time moving the ball this week, and this will be inside a one-score game.

Pick: West Virginia +6.5

No. 1 Georgia @ Tennessee (+20, 56)

Fading Georgia is no fun - you spend the entire game fearing a defensive touchdown will blow it open. However, the Bulldogs' opponents haven't been offensively capable of getting under the number late.

The Volunteers, however, can score more than most. If they can get one touchdown early and one late, a comfortable 34-20 Bulldogs win would get Vols backers the money. In a year where the other top teams routinely get scared by what's deemed unworthy competition, at least Hendon Hooker can keep Tennessee in touch.

Pick: Tennessee +20

Miami @ Florida State (+2.5, 61)

As always, we'd prefer to get +3 here, but I like the Seminoles to win outright. FSU was ravaged by the flu, and with Jordan Travis out, it was forced into a full game of McKenzie Milton against NC State's defense.

Whether it's the softer Miami defense or the return of a dual-threat starting quarterback, there's some value in the Seminoles. Their defense has improved, particularly against the run, and that will make life more difficult for the Hurricanes, who remain a tad overrated after a few straight wins.

Pick: Florida State +2.5 (wait to try to get +3 -120)

Hawaii @ UNLV (+3, 57)

Since I'm not going to give UNLV too much credit for beating New Mexico, I'm not going to crush the Rebels for letting pro prospect Carson Strong throw all over them the week before that either. But I will look at their previous October results, and I see competitive games against the middle of the Mountain West.

Now UNLV gets a visit from Hawaii, which barely cashed for us last week in a disappointing game on the island. The Rainbow Warriors are coming back to the mainland, where all they've done this season is get smoked by any team with a pulse. Still tasting victory, UNLV gets it done again.

Pick: UNLV +3

No. 9 Notre Dame @ Virginia (+5.5, 64.5)

Virginia's offense is one of the most underappreciated entities in college football. Brennan Armstrong's involvement is mandatory to make this bet, but if he's healthy, he'll be slinging it to an assortment of receivers to a degree that Notre Dame hasn't seen this season. With Kyle Hamilton likely out for the Irish, UVA will challenge Notre Dame's secondary to keep up. I'm not sure the Irish can do it.

Pick: Virginia +5.5

Washington State @ No. 3 Oregon (-14, 57.5)

A double dip! The only other time we used a play from the early week lookahead to the biggest games of the week was when we were all over NC State to knock off Clemson in September.

For those cashing along the way this season, you know we've had great success with the Cougars, and this is another good spot for Jayden de Laura and Co. to be competitive in Eugene. The Ducks went to Washington in a rivalry game and sent the Huskies packing. Next week, Oregon heads to Utah for what should be a showdown of the league's top two teams before a potential rematch in the Pac-12 title game. This game is sandwiched in there, with the Cougars coming off their bye and a comfortable road win as a big under dog in Tempe. Wazzu is a must-play this week getting two touchdowns.

Pick: Washington State +14

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.