The first of three big New Year's Day games is a clash between teams that thought they had a case for the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State's hopes died on a failed stretch to the goal line, while Notre Dame just lacked a signature win.
Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (-2.5, 45.5)
Line movement
I wish there was more movement. The line opened Notre Dame -2.5 and only made small moves toward Oklahoma State, with various flashes at -1.5. Those of us who want +3 with Cowboys just haven't been given the chance. The total has uneventfully toggled between 45 and 45.5.
On the field
Notre Dame is favored in part due to the rare case of excitement following the departure of the program's winningest coach. The Fighting Irish promoted defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, and a viral video of the team's wildly excited reaction circulated around the same time Brian Kelly was testing out a Southern drawl for his new LSU job.
Despite the glee surrounding Freeman's appointment, Notre Dame will be without key contributors on each side of the ball - tailback Kyren Williams and safety Kyle Hamilton are preparing for the NFL draft. The Irish, whose best win this season was against Wisconsin, now face next-level competition without their best playmakers.
There's only a little more certainty about Oklahoma State's approach. The team's best unit is its defense, but while the Irish promoted their defensive coordinator, the Cowboys lost theirs (to the other OSU).
While Jaylen Warren wasn't available to make that last-second dash to the end zone in the Big 12 championship, he's expected to join Spencer Sanders and Tay Martin in ensuring the offense complements a defense that swarms in waves.
Whether super senior Jack Coan or Tyler Buchner, the program's future, get the majority of snaps, both are likely to struggle. The Cowboys' top priority will be suppressing tight end Michael Mayer - especially on third down - to force punts and make this game less Fiesta and more siesta for the Irish faithful.
How to bet the game
Notre Dame's schedule hasn't been difficult enough to tell us what its defense is capable of. North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Toledo all scored at will, even with Hamilton in the lineup for some of those matchups.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State found its way into the mid-20s - with the exception of the fateful final play against Baylor - making it the more reliable team. Mike Gundy will have the Cowboys up for a fight, while Notre Dame appears more excited for the future - and rightly so. I'll wait for a +3 pop for Oklahoma State. If I can't get it, anything associated with a plus-sign is a good bet in my books.
Pick: Oklahoma State +3 (-120 or better) / Oklahoma State ML (+110) if +3 never comes
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
