41:I[29208,["/_next/static/chunks/2jhrjnncm5raz.js","/_next/static/chunks/1yt446igj3lq7.js","/_next/static/chunks/1pjcq3d9ovo4r.js","/_next/static/chunks/0l-6rirxtdwmo.js","/_next/static/chunks/2garizayuhlpl.js","/_next/static/chunks/3-0vwtd1eg-pp.js","/_next/static/chunks/2udqgiyebnpne.js","/_next/static/chunks/3hzkipkkj6ddp.js","/_next/static/chunks/0dsjsiwpje-72.js","/_next/static/chunks/3vdprxpabg9bg.js","/_next/static/chunks/0s7b7lxeeaa3w.js"],"default"] 3b:T1cbd,

Once the NFL decided to change the schedule for its annual draft and give the first round its own night, attendees have placed added importance on being selected within the first 32 picks. To the teams, the dividing line between Nos. 32 and 33 also matters since those selected in Round 1 come with affordable contractual control for five years versus just four for second-rounders.

Bettors should create their own strategic dividing line with two ways to bet the first-round market. The first involves the top half of the board and who's worth a bet at a minus price.

1st-round draft pick odds

PLAYER	POSITION	ODDS
Kenny Pickett	QB	-5000
Jordan Davis	DT	-2500
Drake London	WR	-2000
Jermaine Johnson	EDGE	-2000
George Karlaftis	EDGE	-1600
Chris Olave	WR	-900
Tyler Linderbaum	C	-900
Jameson Williams	WR	-700
Devin Lloyd	ILB	-700
Treylon Burks	WR	-650
Trevor Penning	OL	-500
Trent McDuffie	CB	-500
Devonte Wyatt	DT	-300
Zion Johnson	OL	-300
Nakobe Dean	LB	-300
Kenyon Green	G	-250
Andrew Booth	CB	-175
Matt Corral	QB	-150
Dax Hill	CB	-135
Arnold Ebiketie	DE	-130
Boye Mafe	OLB	-130
Jahan Dotson	WR	-125
Desmond Ridder	QB	-120
Sam Howell	QB	-120
Christian Watson	WR	-110

Notice that there are only 25 players listed at a minus price, as 10 prospects are such a lock to go in the first round that sportsbooks won't list them at any price. However, that also means there are 35 total candidates favored to go within the first 32 picks, which obviously doesn't add up.

Avoid disaster

This is the section of the market where you can pick off some small wins to build your bankroll with minimal risk. Here are the safest bets and the return on investment you can get for a short-term turnaround.

PLAYER	ROI
Jameson Williams	14%
Trevor Penning	20%

Williams' talent, his production, and the pedigree of Alabama star receivers are too good for him not to get selected in the first round. You would take a 14% ROI in less than a week in the stock market, so why not here?

As for Penning, you want to bet on a guy who plays at a key position that is scarcely available on draft night. After Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, and Charles Cross go early on Day 1, some team will grab Penning as the next-best tackle. Other top offensive line prospects are interior players, so Penning will quickly become a target in the middle of the first round. This should be a sweat-free 20% ROI.

Finding the risers

The second part to this market involves the bets closer to 50-50. Keep in mind that positional runs can create unexpected demand, especially when it comes to players who've tested well in the lead-up to the draft.

Arnold Ebiketie (-130)

I expect four pass-rushers to go in the first 10 picks. What happens then at football's second-most impactful position? It's unlikely that no one takes an edge-rusher the rest of the night. Big Ten defensive end George Karlaftis seems to be slowly slipping, while Penn State's Ebiketie has slowly moved up on mock drafts into the mid-teens. They can both go in the first round, but I would rather lay -130 on the more heralded ex-Boilermakers star.

Christian Watson (-110)

Speed is great, but what if we could pair 4.4 40-yard speed with red-zone-type size? That's what has scouts buzzing about Watson, the North Dakota State product. After Garrett Wilson, Williams, Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Chris Olave, Watson boasts the most impressive measurables and could be worth the reach. With the Kansas City Chiefs sitting at the back end of the first round with a pair of picks and a Tyreek Hill-sized hole at wide receiver, they may look to fill it with the 6-foot-4 Watson. The trouble for the Chiefs is he might not be there at No. 29.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3c:T1cbd,

Bettors should create their own strategic dividing line with two ways to bet the first-round market. The first involves the top half of the board and who's worth a bet at a minus price.

1st-round draft pick odds

PLAYER	POSITION	ODDS
Kenny Pickett	QB	-5000
Jordan Davis	DT	-2500
Drake London	WR	-2000
Jermaine Johnson	EDGE	-2000
George Karlaftis	EDGE	-1600
Chris Olave	WR	-900
Tyler Linderbaum	C	-900
Jameson Williams	WR	-700
Devin Lloyd	ILB	-700
Treylon Burks	WR	-650
Trevor Penning	OL	-500
Trent McDuffie	CB	-500
Devonte Wyatt	DT	-300
Zion Johnson	OL	-300
Nakobe Dean	LB	-300
Kenyon Green	G	-250
Andrew Booth	CB	-175
Matt Corral	QB	-150
Dax Hill	CB	-135
Arnold Ebiketie	DE	-130
Boye Mafe	OLB	-130
Jahan Dotson	WR	-125
Desmond Ridder	QB	-120
Sam Howell	QB	-120
Christian Watson	WR	-110

Avoid disaster

PLAYER	ROI
Jameson Williams	14%
Trevor Penning	20%

Finding the risers

Arnold Ebiketie (-130)

Christian Watson (-110)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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It's never too early to bet on the NFL draft. Even with the 2022 event months away, if there's a market available, there's an opportunity to begin building your valuable draft portfolio. The best part is no one knows anything right now. Many of the teams that will own the top picks are still trying to figure out who will be in the building, with turnover at head coach and other primary decision-making positions.

The fun part about this No. 1 pick market is that unlike 2021, the pick hasn't been predetermined for three years as it was when Trevor Lawrence went to the Jaguars. So while the odds might suggest it's a two-horse race to be selected first overall, a lot can happen in Las Vegas.

Player to drafted first	Odds
Aidan Hutchinson	-110
Kayvon Thibodeaux	+110
Kenny Pickett	+1000
Evan Neal	+1000
Malik Willis	+2000
Matt Corral	+2500
DeMarvin Leal	+2500
Derek Stingley Jr.	+5000
Sam Howell	+5000
Carson Strong	+6000
Kyle Hamilton	+6500
George Karlaftis	+7000
Drake London	+7500
Jameson Williams	+7500
Tyler Linderbaum	+7500
Charles Cross	+7500
Desmond Ridder	+9000
David Ojabo	+9000
Kenyon Green	+10000
Ikem Ekwonu	+10000
Nakobe Dean	+10000
Garrett Wilson	+12000
Kaiir Elam	+13000
Chris Olave	+13000

The one thing the odds suggest is that the top pick won't be a quarterback, which creates numerous possibilities. That's the case for two reasons:

There isn't a can't-miss prospect available. While that hasn't stopped the NFL cognoscenti before, perhaps teams have learned from failed first overall picks (Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield) that felt forced at the time.
The team making the pick. The Jaguars need to do what they do best - lose. A loss Sunday means they're on the clock again after the selection of Lawrence failed to help them on the field in 2021. They're not about to give up on a player who was considered the next big thing. Besides, the struggles of Lawrence - plus Zach Wilson and Trey Lance - might have soured teams on desperately trading up for a quarterback.

Like a good horse racing handicapper, we enter this market looking for reasons to fade the favorites. It's a viable approach because there's so much time between now and the draft - time in which the NFL combine and various pro days can drastically change the landscape. Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are great players, but their respective odds are based largely on what they did on the field for top programs against varying degrees of competition. NFL evaluators need to project forward.

That uncertainty offers bettors a chance to find their own diamond in the rough. We don't know who will impress and, as of now, we don't know who will make the first pick. Last year, Urban Meyer swooped in and grabbed a running back in the first round - a move already widely understood to be a bad value. What might the next decision-maker want?

The answer should be: to keep Lawrence upright. So, instead of a pass-rusher, perhaps the Jaguars select someone to protect their young signal-caller. Offensive tackle is always considered a safe pick and a smart choice for a new regime.

Evan Neal +1000

PFF describes Neal, the Alabama left tackle, as a "mammoth 6-foot-7, 350-pounder (who) is one of the most imposing specimens ever to grace this earth - and he moves like a man 50 pounds lighter." Does that sound like someone who might test well in the next few months?

PFF also notes Neal has only allowed 22 pressures over the past two years between left and right tackle. With Jacksonville looking to protect Lawrence, an athlete who can play both positions seems like a no-brainer.

Charles Cross +7500

Under the same premise, Cross is a longer shot at offensive tackle. the Mississippi State product had enough chances to impress in the Bulldogs' pass-heavy scheme and did so, playing a nearly perfect game even in a loss to Alabama.

Other options

George Karlaftis +7000

What if the Jaguars' decision-makers want a defensive end but don't see the same things other talent evaluators see? It wouldn't be the first time.

Karlaftis, football's "Greek Freak," is considered to have great hands but is also extremely strong. That will test well. At 70-1, you never know.

Garrett Wilson +12000

Maybe the newcomers in Jacksonville have seen how Ja'Marr Chase has helped Joe Burrow and the Bengals and will look to replicate that for Lawrence.

Wilson flies under the radar in the shadow of his more recognizable teammate, Chris Olave. But Wilson is ranked as the better prospect, and without a Kyle Pitts-like tight end available, he might be a good low-investment ticket at 120-1.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3e:T1eed,

Player to drafted first	Odds
Aidan Hutchinson	-110
Kayvon Thibodeaux	+110
Kenny Pickett	+1000
Evan Neal	+1000
Malik Willis	+2000
Matt Corral	+2500
DeMarvin Leal	+2500
Derek Stingley Jr.	+5000
Sam Howell	+5000
Carson Strong	+6000
Kyle Hamilton	+6500
George Karlaftis	+7000
Drake London	+7500
Jameson Williams	+7500
Tyler Linderbaum	+7500
Charles Cross	+7500
Desmond Ridder	+9000
David Ojabo	+9000
Kenyon Green	+10000
Ikem Ekwonu	+10000
Nakobe Dean	+10000
Garrett Wilson	+12000
Kaiir Elam	+13000
Chris Olave	+13000

The one thing the odds suggest is that the top pick won't be a quarterback, which creates numerous possibilities. That's the case for two reasons:

There isn't a can't-miss prospect available. While that hasn't stopped the NFL cognoscenti before, perhaps teams have learned from failed first overall picks (Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield) that felt forced at the time.
The team making the pick. The Jaguars need to do what they do best - lose. A loss Sunday means they're on the clock again after the selection of Lawrence failed to help them on the field in 2021. They're not about to give up on a player who was considered the next big thing. Besides, the struggles of Lawrence - plus Zach Wilson and Trey Lance - might have soured teams on desperately trading up for a quarterback.

Evan Neal +1000

Charles Cross +7500

Other options

George Karlaftis +7000

What if the Jaguars' decision-makers want a defensive end but don't see the same things other talent evaluators see? It wouldn't be the first time.

Karlaftis, football's "Greek Freak," is considered to have great hands but is also extremely strong. That will test well. At 70-1, you never know.

Garrett Wilson +12000

Maybe the newcomers in Jacksonville have seen how Ja'Marr Chase has helped Joe Burrow and the Bengals and will look to replicate that for Lawrence.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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If you got in early on a number of these bowl games, you're likely sitting on some excellent closing line value and praying a dreaded cancellation tweet doesn't appear on your timeline. Three of Thursday's four games have provided all kinds of betting value for early birds, with the nightcap moving just enough to provide some value.

Duke's Mayo Bowl: South Carolina vs. North Carolina (-9.5, 58.5)

Line history

Presumably, the Tar Heels expected star quarterback Sam Howell to skip this game. That's the only reason for this line opening under a touchdown. There were implications within a couple of days that Howell would play, moving this line from UNC -5 to its current position of -9.5. The total has toggled between 57.5 and 58.5.

On the field

Assuming Howell plays, it's easy to understand how well UNC might do on offense. However, the Tar Heels defense is like a sieve. Zeb Noland's not going to excite anyone, and the Gamecocks are strangely the side coming into this matchup with more players missing.

If you didn't grab the Heels with the game lined at under a touchdown, it's not worth chasing at the bad number. And I would not want to back South Carolina only to see an inspired North Carolina performance in a border battle in Charlotte.

The Tar Heels will score 30+ relatively easily and could flirt with 40. The defense will give up points early or late, and maybe both, so a 38-28 type of score would cash the over easily.

Pick: Over 58.5

Music City Bowl: Purdue vs. Tennessee (-5.5, 64)

Line history

For reasons that remain unknown, the Boilermakers opened as 3-point favorites. It quickly got down to a pick'em, eventually swinging to the Volunteers' side, and now we're pushing up close to a touchdown. The total was shifted early from 58.5 and has mostly held at 64 since.

On the field

With this much closing line value for those of us backing Tennessee, this game probably gets canceled based on recent bowl season history. If it doesn't, we'll see Hendon Hooker hit numerous deep shots while also being able to move the ball on the ground.

Purdue's arguably two best players - David Bell and George Karlaftis - have opted out, compromising the squad on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers will also be hard-pressed to have the advantage in the stands, with this game taking place in Nashville and a much easier trip from Knoxville than West Lafayette.

The correction to this point spread still might not be enough, and I wouldn't consider backing Purdue until the line got above +7. However, you've had three weeks to get the Vols at a field goal or better, and hopefully, you did just that.

Pick: Pass at current number

Peach Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State (-2.5, 56)

Line history

The line movement has mirrored the Heisman candidates' decisions to skip the first New Years' Six game on the schedule. Rumors of Kenny Pickett's opt-out brought this from Panthers -3.5 to Spartans -3. Kenneth Walker then announced that he was moving on to professional prep, and the line shifted back under a field goal. This goes to show how much more important an excellent quarterback is to the line over a top-tier running back. With the two stars passing on the Peach Bowl, naturally, the total has moved from 63.5 to 56.

On the field

The key to this game is evaluating the level of the replacements at the two key positions and relating that to the win probability of each team against the point spread.

Nick Patti has been backing Pickett up for four years, but when you're behind the school's record-setting quarterback, that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quotes out of Pittsburgh indicate that the rest of the offense (who are all in for the game) believe that Patti can keep them humming. That could especially be the case against a Michigan State pass defense that got torched by quality QBs all season. The Spartans should feel Walker's absence, especially against a Panthers' run defense that gave up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.

Pitt can score on MSU, but the Spartans won't have the same success relying on Payton Thorne and a run game that gets shut down. With the big move coming off the Pickett news and not enough of one from Walker walking, this is an overreaction.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5

Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Wisconsin (-6.5, 41.5)

Line history

The Badgers opened -7, and I've been waiting to get under a touchdown with Wisconsin. Finally, we've seen it budge towards the Sun Devils in the last few days. Despite a low opening of 43.5, the total has continued to shift to 41.5.

On the field

Arizona State has had issues against top competition all campaign long, and the Badgers are the best team they'll have faced. Wisconsin will be able to run it all night and prides itself on discipline, as limiting turnovers from the quarterback position finally helped them get back into the Big Ten race. Meanwhile, penalties and turnovers have cost the Sun Devils in losses to BYU and Utah.

Braelon Allen almost single-handedly changed the course of the Badgers' season, and we know that Paul Chryst's squad will show up to play in Vegas. For all of its talent, Herm Edwards' team had some off-field issues coming into the campaign, with NCAA investigations acting as a distraction. A disappointing 8-4 season followed.

As the crazy-low total suggests, Wisconsin can contain Jayden Daniels enough while deploying painfully long drives that might occasionally feature explosive runs from Allen.

Pick: Wisconsin -6.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

40:T215a,

Duke's Mayo Bowl: South Carolina vs. North Carolina (-9.5, 58.5)

Line history

On the field

The Tar Heels will score 30+ relatively easily and could flirt with 40. The defense will give up points early or late, and maybe both, so a 38-28 type of score would cash the over easily.

Pick: Over 58.5

Music City Bowl: Purdue vs. Tennessee (-5.5, 64)

Line history

On the field

Pick: Pass at current number

Peach Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State (-2.5, 56)

Line history

On the field

The key to this game is evaluating the level of the replacements at the two key positions and relating that to the win probability of each team against the point spread.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5

Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Wisconsin (-6.5, 41.5)

Line history

On the field

As the crazy-low total suggests, Wisconsin can contain Jayden Daniels enough while deploying painfully long drives that might occasionally feature explosive runs from Allen.

Pick: Wisconsin -6.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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