If you got in early on a number of these bowl games, you're likely sitting on some excellent closing line value and praying a dreaded cancellation tweet doesn't appear on your timeline. Three of Thursday's four games have provided all kinds of betting value for early birds, with the nightcap moving just enough to provide some value.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: South Carolina vs. North Carolina (-9.5, 58.5)
Line history
Presumably, the Tar Heels expected star quarterback Sam Howell to skip this game. That's the only reason for this line opening under a touchdown. There were implications within a couple of days that Howell would play, moving this line from UNC -5 to its current position of -9.5. The total has toggled between 57.5 and 58.5.
On the field
Assuming Howell plays, it's easy to understand how well UNC might do on offense. However, the Tar Heels defense is like a sieve. Zeb Noland's not going to excite anyone, and the Gamecocks are strangely the side coming into this matchup with more players missing.
If you didn't grab the Heels with the game lined at under a touchdown, it's not worth chasing at the bad number. And I would not want to back South Carolina only to see an inspired North Carolina performance in a border battle in Charlotte.
The Tar Heels will score 30+ relatively easily and could flirt with 40. The defense will give up points early or late, and maybe both, so a 38-28 type of score would cash the over easily.
Pick: Over 58.5
Music City Bowl: Purdue vs. Tennessee (-5.5, 64)
Line history
For reasons that remain unknown, the Boilermakers opened as 3-point favorites. It quickly got down to a pick'em, eventually swinging to the Volunteers' side, and now we're pushing up close to a touchdown. The total was shifted early from 58.5 and has mostly held at 64 since.
On the field
With this much closing line value for those of us backing Tennessee, this game probably gets canceled based on recent bowl season history. If it doesn't, we'll see Hendon Hooker hit numerous deep shots while also being able to move the ball on the ground.
Purdue's arguably two best players - David Bell and George Karlaftis - have opted out, compromising the squad on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers will also be hard-pressed to have the advantage in the stands, with this game taking place in Nashville and a much easier trip from Knoxville than West Lafayette.
The correction to this point spread still might not be enough, and I wouldn't consider backing Purdue until the line got above +7. However, you've had three weeks to get the Vols at a field goal or better, and hopefully, you did just that.
Pick: Pass at current number
Peach Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State (-2.5, 56)
Line history
The line movement has mirrored the Heisman candidates' decisions to skip the first New Years' Six game on the schedule. Rumors of Kenny Pickett's opt-out brought this from Panthers -3.5 to Spartans -3. Kenneth Walker then announced that he was moving on to professional prep, and the line shifted back under a field goal. This goes to show how much more important an excellent quarterback is to the line over a top-tier running back. With the two stars passing on the Peach Bowl, naturally, the total has moved from 63.5 to 56.
On the field
The key to this game is evaluating the level of the replacements at the two key positions and relating that to the win probability of each team against the point spread.
Nick Patti has been backing Pickett up for four years, but when you're behind the school's record-setting quarterback, that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quotes out of Pittsburgh indicate that the rest of the offense (who are all in for the game) believe that Patti can keep them humming. That could especially be the case against a Michigan State pass defense that got torched by quality QBs all season. The Spartans should feel Walker's absence, especially against a Panthers' run defense that gave up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Pitt can score on MSU, but the Spartans won't have the same success relying on Payton Thorne and a run game that gets shut down. With the big move coming off the Pickett news and not enough of one from Walker walking, this is an overreaction.
Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Wisconsin (-6.5, 41.5)
Line history
The Badgers opened -7, and I've been waiting to get under a touchdown with Wisconsin. Finally, we've seen it budge towards the Sun Devils in the last few days. Despite a low opening of 43.5, the total has continued to shift to 41.5.
On the field
Arizona State has had issues against top competition all campaign long, and the Badgers are the best team they'll have faced. Wisconsin will be able to run it all night and prides itself on discipline, as limiting turnovers from the quarterback position finally helped them get back into the Big Ten race. Meanwhile, penalties and turnovers have cost the Sun Devils in losses to BYU and Utah.
Braelon Allen almost single-handedly changed the course of the Badgers' season, and we know that Paul Chryst's squad will show up to play in Vegas. For all of its talent, Herm Edwards' team had some off-field issues coming into the campaign, with NCAA investigations acting as a distraction. A disappointing 8-4 season followed.
As the crazy-low total suggests, Wisconsin can contain Jayden Daniels enough while deploying painfully long drives that might occasionally feature explosive runs from Allen.
Pick: Wisconsin -6.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
