College Football Playoff betting: National title odds and first-round matchups
While we can litigate the College Football Playoff bracket for days about who got screwed (honestly, nobody) or whether the system is broken (it might be), the field of 12 is officially set. Instead of debating Notre Dame's exclusion, let's dive into the playoff odds for the 12 CFP teams and provide immediate reactions to the first-round matchups and spreads.
National title odds
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | +275 |
| 2 | Ohio State | +250 |
| 3 | Georgia | +450 |
| 4 | Texas Tech | +900 |
| 5 | Oregon | +750 |
| 6 | Ole Miss | +3000 |
| 7 | Texas A&M | +1600 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | +5000 |
| 9 | Alabama | +2000 |
| 10 | Miami | +1800 |
| 11 | Tulane | +5000 |
| 12 | James Madison | +4000 |
👉 You can find full national title odds on theScore Bet here
Although Indiana defeated Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes remain the favorite to win the big one - by a narrow margin.
Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech earned byes as the top four seeds, while the first-round games featuring seeds 5-12 will be played Dec. 19-20.
The Buckeyes have garnered the most bets and handle (money wagered) to win the national title since the start of the season and since the official bracket was revealed Sunday morning. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have received the second-most bets since the beginning of the season. But Georgia's SEC championship win over Alabama impressed bettors, as the Bulldogs have been the second-most popular national title ticket following the bracket's release.
First-round matchups
Despite the Crimson Tide losing to the Sooners 23-21 on Nov. 15, they're a slight road favorite. After falling to Florida State in its season opener, Alabama recovered quickly and surged midseason to build a playoff-worthy resume but eventually slipped down the stretch.
The Tide barely beat a weak Auburn squad and then got demolished by Georgia in Saturday's SEC championship. They've dealt with injuries to starters over the last month, so, presumably, this two-week break should allow them to get healthier. The 1.5-point spread, the lowest of the first-round slate, indicates this is a complete coin flip.
Miami's head-to-head win over Notre Dame was the ultimate factor in leaving the Fighting Irish out and putting the Hurricanes in. Ironically, Texas A&M also beat Notre Dame, dropping the team to 0-2 in early September. The Aggies had a particularly easy SEC schedule, but the conference's mediocre and bottom-tier teams are still much better than the ACC's top teams, so it's understandable why they're a 4.5-point home favorite.
Neither Ole Miss nor Tulane has to search far for tape on one another. These teams played Sept. 20, when the Rebels annihilated the Green Wave 45-10. That score wasn't a fluke. The massive discrepancy in talent and athleticism was obvious. The current system rewards Group of 5 schools for having remarkable seasons. However, in the NIL era, the gap between the major conferences and the lower ones is as wide as ever, creating potential for massive spreads and blowouts when such opponents are pitted against each other. It won't matter that Ole Miss lost its head coach - at least for the first round.
Two Group of 5 schools earning playoff bids is highly unlikely, but the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids, and this year, that included Tulane and James Madison. Duke shockingly won the ACC championship despite finishing the regular season 7-5, leading the selection committee to pick the Green Wave (American Conference) and the Dukes (Sun Belt) over the Blue Devils.
James Madison's had an impressive season, but Oregon's physicality and pure talent will outclass the Dukes, which is why the spread is nearly three touchdowns. Maybe one day we'll see a huge upset from a Group of 5 school, but I wouldn't count on it happening here, especially not against the Ducks, who have only lost to undefeated Indiana.
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