CFB Week 10 picks: Texas' playoff hopes on the line against Vanderbilt
We had a perfect 7-0 sweep for our Saturday picks last week. If you think that was just luck, think again: We're 24-10 (71%) in our last 34 picks. That's an absurd rate that can only last for so long, but we'll do our best as we enter the final month of the regular season.
π Check out all college football Week 10 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 12 p.m. ET
π Pick: Texas -2.5
Vanderbilt has been one of college football's best stories, but this is a must-win game for Texas. The Longhorns already have two losses, and another one would knock them out of playoff contention. Vanderbilt's offense has relied on rushing more than passing - the Commodores average the SEC's third-most rushing yards per game and fourth-fewest passing yards per game. Luckily for the Longhorns, their defensive strength is stopping the run. Texas allows 80 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the conference.
Arch Manning has gradually improved as the buzz around him dies down. He had his best outing in a comeback road win over Mississippi State last weekend. Vanderbilt doesn't have a strong passing defense. We're backing Manning to continue trending in the right direction.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Florida +7.5
Firing a coach midseason can go one of two ways: Either the team completely quits and collapses, or the group takes accountability for its failures and is motivated to play harder. We've seen both situations play out in recent college football history, and we're banking on Florida taking the latter path.
Three straight losses in September decided Billy Napier's fate, but the Gators actually improved as the year progressed. They beat Mississippi State before their bye and defeated Texas earlier in October. DJ Lagway's turnovers are still a problem, but he's also an explosive-play machine. As impressive as Georgia's looked, Florida is 2-0 at home against SEC opponents.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Tennessee -3.5
John Mateer's production has declined since returning from injury, which bodes well for an awful Tennessee secondary. Tennessee allows the most passing yards per game in the SEC, but it also leads the conference in total offense. Mateer has struggled with accuracy and hasn't run effectively post-injury. He won't take advantage of a weak Tennessee passing defense, and the Volunteers' pass rush effectively gets to the quarterback. If Oklahoma's offensive line can't hold up, it doesn't matter who's in Tennessee's secondary.
A relatively weak schedule has boosted Oklahoma's exceptional defensive numbers. The unit surrendered 34 points at home to Ole Miss last Saturday and should similarly stumble against a prolific Vols offense.
Game time: 10:15 p.m.
π Pick: Cincinnati +8.5
Utah deserves credit for beating solid opponents en route to a 6-2 mark, but it lost to Texas Tech and BYU, its only two ranked opponents. Cincinnati shouldn't be an 8.5-point underdog after seven straight wins. Although the Bearcats haven't played marquee competition, they remain undefeated in the Big 12.
Utes starting quarterback Devon Dampier missed the last game against Colorado with an ankle injury. His status for Saturday is uncertain. Even if he plays, he could be hobbled, which would boost Cincinnati's upset chances.
π Check out all college football Week 10 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Maryland +22.5
Indiana has decimated opponents, so it's not like there's a line too big to lay the points. But Maryland is undervalued in this spot.
The Terps are better than their 4-3 record indicates. They lost three straight nail-biters to Washington, Nebraska, and UCLA - all games they could've won if questionable penalties had gone their way or coaching decisions had played out differently. Maryland doesn't have a reliable run game, but it has a talented freshman quarterback, and while the Terps' defense is young, it's full of studs. Indiana has the talent advantage, but Maryland is equipped to keep it within three touchdowns at home.
Game time: 7 p.m.
π Pick: South Carolina +13.5
South Carolina covered this exact spread last Saturday, so let's take it again. The Gamecocks narrowly lost to Alabama because of a LaNorris Sellers fumble in the final minutes, but they proved they can compete with the best in the SEC. Despite the fumble, Sellers returned to being one of the nation's best quarterbacks with marvelous plays he hadn't showcased since before his midseason injury. Ole Miss allows the fourth-most yards per game in the SEC, and Sellers' dynamic dual-threat ability should allow South Carolina's offense to move the ball. This is also a potential letdown spot for Ole Miss returning home after earning a huge road win over Oklahoma last weekend.
Game time: 4 p.m.
π Pick: Arkansas -4.5
If you've learned anything from this column and my recent success picking games, it should be this: Sometimes, the spread picks the game for you. Mississippi State is the significantly better team in this matchup. Yet it's an underdog against Arkansas, which is 0-4 in the SEC and only has two wins on the season. The Bulldogs are also 0-4 in the SEC, but they've competed against Tennessee, Florida, and Texas over the last month.
However, Mississippi State is coming off its most emotionally draining game of the season, a 45-38 overtime loss to Texas after leading by 17 in the fourth quarter. It's challenging to put that loss in the rearview and go on the road to play another SEC opponent.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more coverage.
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