CFB bowl season (Part 8): Best bets for 2023's last college football Saturday

It's a college football Saturday, and that's not nothing. A pair of New Year's Six games feature the highly ranked teams, but winning bets on the other two bowl games will pay just the same.

Peach Bowl

No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State (-4.5, 48.5)

Pairing two prominent coaches who are frequent topics of conversation for how they handle the ends of games relative to the point spread almost makes life easier for bettors. Since Lane Kiffin and James Franklin are both involved and their teams are evenly matched, we can hope there are no late-game hijinks.

Penn State opened at -3.5, and the market has toggled between that number and -4.5. Ole Miss hasn't had anyone of point-spread significance opt out or transfer, and on the Penn State side, only defensive lineman Chop Robinson has announced he's getting ready for the next level. However, Penn State will be without defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who took the head job at Duke. That might be an issue for a unit that was best in the country by standard down success rate and third in EPA/play.

This is one of bowl season's best matchups because both teams got to the Peach Bowl by beating everybody they were supposed to without winning any games they weren't expected to. The line suggests that Penn State is supposed to win this game, presumably because its defense will be the difference. However, those metrics are based on battles against poor offenses in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions haven't seen the combination of scheme and speed that the Rebels bring to the table and are without Diaz, making this closer to a coin flip than the line suggests.

Pick: Ole Miss (+4.5)

Music City Bowl

Maryland vs. Auburn (-6.5, 47.5)

Maryland is a discount Penn State in the Big Ten. Lose games to the upper echelon of the conference, add a pair of close losses elsewhere, and a 7-5 record is good enough to go bowling.

That's more than can be said for Auburn, which fed on SEC teams with a combined league record of 2-22 and a soft nonconference schedule. As usual, the Tigers got up for the Iron Bowl, but that's not enough to convince me they should be a big favorite here.

Auburn was adjusted to a 7-point favorite when longtime Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa opted out as he seeks his next stop. However - presumably because Billy Edwards Jr. showed capability in his one start as a freshman last season and the 6-foot-4, 220-pound sophomore will happily use his size in the run game - bettors took the +7 with Maryland.

Let's go shopping to see if we get +7 with the Terrapins, but against a Tigers team that ranked below Maryland in both offensive and defensive EPA/play, getting a significant number of points is music to our ears in Tennessee.

Pick: Maryland (+6.5)

Orange Bowl

No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia (-19.5, 44.5)

It was never about the resume. Florida State was left out of the College Football Playoff because its star quarterback got hurt and the remaining quarterbacks on the roster couldn't prove they were any good. Case closed.

The Seminoles announced they would show the world they could compete with a top-tier team in a big-time bowl game anyway. Then, if they wanted, they could claim a share of the national title until the end of time.

Then everyone left.

A who's who of Florida State offensive skill-position weapons will be missing - mostly due to opt-outs - as will Jared Verse and at least five contributors on defense. We were told Tate Rodemaker - the backup who missed the ACC championship with a concussion - would get enough reps to be ready for the Orange Bowl, but he's hit the transfer portal. Maybe Florida State should have been left out of the postseason altogether.

Brock Bowers seems unlikely to play for Georgia, but while the Bulldogs' transfer/opt-out list is long, the names aren't particularly impactful.

Given all of the above, the line has skyrocketed to nearly three touchdowns, making one of six premier bowl games largely a waste of time. Since no one's idea of a good time is betting against Georgia, even with an interested team, backing FSU isn't the side either. The 12-team playoff can't come fast enough.

Pick: Pass

Arizona Bowl

Toledo vs. Wyoming (-3.5, 44.5)

Toledo - annually the class of the MAC - lost the conference title game to Miami and then lost its starting dual-threat quarterback, Dequan Finn, to the transfer portal and Baylor. A line adjustment moving the Rockets from short favorite to small underdog ensued, but was it enough?

The biggest line moves away from regular-season projections have been more profitable than small adjustments. If a team is truly out on the bowl game, most of the time, the spread hasn't been adjusted enough.

What's motivating Wyoming, a team that will happily spend 60 minutes hitting you in the face? Longtime head coach Craig Bohl is retiring after the game, and its offensive coordinator is off to North Dakota State. Getting a modicum of revenge after losing to a MAC team in overtime in this game last year seems better than whatever rallying cry Toledo can muster.

This isn't the best price that's been available to back the Cowboys, but it will have to do.

Pick: Wyoming (-3.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.