We have to make all kinds of assumptions in the offseason, as college football doesn't even throw us the crumbs of a preseason.
The Week 0/1 start didn't make anybody rich, but a 9-8 record gives us some knowledge at no charge. It's not much, but it's enough for some to overreact.
Each week, we're looking for seven games in which the point spread might be off. The vast majority of the time, that'll provide a bet on the underdog against the spread.
No. 10 Notre Dame @ North Carolina State (+7.5, 51.5)
Congrats to Notre Dame on a big start to the season, but demolishing a Navy team that couldn't batten down the hatches against the running game and Tennessee State isn't enough for me to boost its rating. The North Carolina State defensive line will hold up a lot better.
I won't get carried away by the Wolfpack's win at UConn, but that road cover is somewhat impressive. Brennan Armstrong threw for almost 4,500 yards two seasons ago, so we know he's capable of more than the 155-yard passing game he had in Week 1. Armstrong's back to being a dual threat, running for almost a hundred yards. He'll test the Irish defense more than its previous opponents did, so this game will stay close with the 'Pack live to win.
Pick: North Carolina State (+7.5)
No. 12 Utah @ Baylor (+8, 46.5)
Another ranked team hits the road as a big favorite, but a lot has gone into Utah getting this status. The Utes played a strong enough team game in their opener against Florida without starting quarterback Cam Rising so shouldn't need to rush him back for this one, either. On the other hand, Baylor lost as 27.5-point favorites to Texas State and will be without its starting quarterback for a couple of weeks. We've got two ships heading in different directions.
That creates value, though. Throughout the summer,
If we credit Utah's rating as having shot back up to where it was when the line against the Gators sat at -9 throughout the summer, the Baylor rating has plummeted.
However, Texas State - which reloaded its roster with a new coach in the same way Colorado did - might have been too underrated. Florida - lined at 5.5 wins before the season - may also not be any good.
The Bears will have Sawyer Robertson behind center. The Mississippi State transfer might not be that much of a downgrade on the incumbent, Blake Shapen - at least not enough to move a line that'd normally be closer to Utah -3 to over a touchdown.
Pick: Baylor (+8)
Louisiana @ Old Dominion (+6, 51.5)
Most line moves or differences from spread projections are explainable, even if we disagree with the magnitude. That's not the case here. I have Louisiana as 9-point favorites against Old Dominion, but the line's first move was the Monarchs going from -8 to under a touchdown. I'll play against that since there's no sign that anything's wrong with Ben Wooldridge. An injury to the Louisiana quarterback is the only thing that would warrant this move.
Pick: Louisiana (-6.5)
Houston @ Rice (+10, 52.5)
Let's give Houston's rating a modest bump for withstanding UTSA in its opener. We can drop Rice for not being able to hold up for four quarters against Texas, even though that's harsh considering we never expected it to. That might get us to the Cougars favored by a touchdown as they set out on the road, but -10 is too much.
Things will be a lot easier for Rice quarterback JT Daniels - who's on what feels like his 13th team - and the Owls' defense did well to give up only 4.1 yards per carry against the Longhorns. They can make this one interesting at home.
Pick: Rice (+10)
Memphis @ Arkansas State (+21.5, 58.5)
There always has to be an ugly one. We had the under on the Arkansas State win total, and the team lost 73-0 in Week 1. Alas, a 21.5-point spread against Memphis would mean that the Red Wolves are the worst team in the country. That's not a status I'll assign them just because they got blown out at Oklahoma. They may end up at the bottom of the FBS, but they can cover this number without threatening a win.
Pick: Arkansas State (+21.5)
Arizona @ Mississippi State (-9.5, 60.5)
We've looked to Arizona for a live 'dog in the past, but a road game at an SEC squad is a whole different deal. When Mississippi State went to Tucson last year, it won easily and allowed less than 2 yards per carry to the Wildcats. Will Rogers is back under center for the Bulldogs and should shred the Arizona defense. Based on our preseason ratings, this line should be at least -14, and it's not.
Pick: Mississippi State (-9.5)
Temple @ Rutgers (-8.5, 44.5)
Sharp money poured in against Rutgers before its opener with Northwestern, driving the line from -7 down to -5.5. The Scarlet Knights covered easily.
Was the market wrong? Sure. But was it wrong because Rutgers is much better, or is Northwestern - off a hazing scandal that resulted in Pat Fitzgerald's ousting - horrendously bad?
If it's the latter and the market has Rutgers rated correctly, I have this line projected under a touchdown - even with Temple getting downgraded for barely beating Akron. We're also getting some value with E.J. Warner and the Owls, who should at least have an opportunity to achieve the backdoor cover.
Pick: Temple (+8.5)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
