We've got two quarterbacks that come into the Super Bowl not at 100%. After a 17-game regular season and two more hotly contested playoff matchups, that's not the most surprising circumstance. The bumps, bruises, and sprains didn't derail Matthew Stafford last year, but whether it's Patrick Mahomes' ankle or Jalen Hurts' shoulder, the market is fully aware that both quarterbacks might not be at their best.
There probably shouldn't be a bet placed because of rumor, speculation, or hearsay about an injury, so we'll stick with matchups, tendencies, and hypothetical game-scripts in a smattering of passing props for Super Bowl LVII.
Patrick Mahomes under 294.5 passing yards
Mahomes' usage is impervious to game-script. Whether the Chiefs are trailing, leading, or tied, the game will rest on his shoulders. However, you could say that for every matchup, and therefore expect Mahomes to always go over. In Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs trailed throughout, Mahomes had to throw 49 times, and, despite finding Travis Kelce for 133 yards, he only had 270 yards passing.
It's easy to look at the quarterbacks the Eagles have faced this season and poke holes in Philadelphia's league-leading 5.5 yards per pass attempt against. The team gave up 347 yards to Dak Prescott in its regular season game that most resembles this matchup.
However, the difference is actually on the other side of the ball. In Dallas, the Eagles' defense was left vulnerable by the style of offense they had to play with Gardner Minshew under center. The element that Hurts brings to the Eagles is game-control - extending time of possession with third and fourth down runs, and his threat in the run game on every play.
The Eagles ran for just 3.0 yards per carry with a more traditional run-design, and had a rare failure on a quarterback sneak with Minshew. With five Eagles turnovers, there were 20 possessions in that game. Hurts had just six interceptions this season and didn't lose a fumble.
With an ineffective run-game of their own, the Chiefs won't be able to strike quickly via the big play, and the Eagles' offense does a good enough job playing keep-away from Mahomes to limit his opportunity to rack up big yardage.
Jalen Hurts under 31.5 pass attempts
Last week we touched on Hurts and the Eagles' ability to hit one big explosive pass play, betting over 37.5 on his longest pass completion. If Hurts strikes it big on one play, that would help tamp down his passing attempt volume since he's accruing yardage on one pass attempt.
There are a few other things that will go against the idea of Hurts dropping back to pass repeatedly. The first is the point spread, as Eagles -1.5 suggests a close game, which means a somewhat neutral game state where Philadelphia shouldn't panic in their play-calling, maintaining a run-heavy approach. That leads us to the second issue for high-volume throwing.
Hurts showed more of a proclivity to call his own number on the ground, and along with the emergence of Kenneth Gainwell and incumbent starting tailback Miles Sanders, the Eagles will have three good options in the run-game. The Eagles' run-design will try to take the starch out of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's potentially blitz-heavy scheme.
Both quarterbacks to complete their first pass (+105)
If you built this market based entirely on season-long pass completion percentage, you'd multiply Mahomes' 0.671 with Hurts' 0.665 and get .446. That translates to fair odds of +124/-124.
So why would we bet both quarterbacks to complete their first pass at +105 - an implied probability of 48.8%?
Mahomes has completed his first pass attempt in 10 straight games, as the Chiefs have honed their early game-script to a point where Andy Reid sets him up for an easy, short throw that, more often than not, gains less than 10 yards.
The Eagles are slightly more aggressive with Hurts' opening throw, but he's completed six straight first attempts - three before he got hurt and three after.
There are no guarantees, but under the bright lights, you'd expect both coaches to do whatever they can to have their quarterback start in a positive way.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
