A truly good bet won't last long. While there are loads of options for your recreational betting dollar ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, the longer the market is available, the more time there is for big-time bettors to find inefficient lines and prices. If we bet anything early, it's because we suspect the line will change between now and the start of the game.
For Super Bowl LVII, here are five prop bets you should act on before they become less valuable.
Kenneth Gainwell over 17.5 rushing yards
Like most overs in the Super Bowl, this should be popular once everyone starts thinking about this game and looking into the Eagles' tailback usage. Kenneth Gainwell saw a season high in snap count against the 49ers, and after failing to crack double digits in carries in a 2022 regular-season game, he's had 12 and 14 in two playoff games.
At 4.5 yards per carry this season and with the Chiefs allowing 4.5 YPC, four carries might be enough to put him over his yardage total. If the Eagles are leading, he'll get some run. If they're behind, he's the better option in the passing game, and he could get a few carries in trail mode or in the two-minute drill.
Jalen Hurts longest pass completion over 37.5 yards
Here's another over that could be popular, especially when bettors start evaluating how Eagles receivers match up with a rookie-laden Chiefs' secondary. If L'Jarius Sneed is out or less than 100%, DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown could get more than a target or two deep downfield.
The Chiefs' defense took advantage of the Bengals' offensive line issues, and we easily hit the under on Joe Burrow's longest pass completion in the AFC championship. The Eagles have the offensive line to buy Jalen Hurts time and the play-action scheme to put the youngsters in Kansas City's defensive backfield in a bind, so let's grab this now in case it moves up a yard or two by kickoff.
Jody Fortson anytime touchdown (+600)
There are few, if any, secrets in the NFL. Jody Fortson could be one of them. The second-year receiver turned tight end out of Valdosta State has just nine catches on the season, but two have been touchdowns. After a good preseason, Fortson was primarily used early as a big secondary target in the red zone. He eventually saw multiple targets in back-to-back games. Then he got hurt.
Fortson missed the last three games of the regular season and the Chiefs' first playoff game before returning to play 14 of 69 snaps against Cincinnati. A handful of Patrick Mahomes' targets got banged up last week, so who knows how healthy that group is currently.
The Eagles are pretty good at guarding tight ends, but that's Travis Kelce's problem. If he's getting all the attention, Fortson could be the beneficiary when the Chiefs need a big body to win a one-on-one in the end zone. At 6-1, there's room for his odds to shorten if the secret gets out - which it might just have.
The long shot you like
Speaking of long-shot props, the ones that are only popular for the Super Bowl are often bad bets. Sportsbooks know that most recreational bettors will gravitate to big payouts and will thus price them well below their relative value. However, the big game is a day to throw caution to the wind, so if you can't resist tossing a couple dollars on the first score to be a safety, do so before other people try their luck and the odds shorten even further.
The national anthem
It seems like the big social media moment leading up to the Super Bowl every year is when an anthem rehearsal leaks and the prop-betting universe goes wild to get down on the side that the practice time suggests. Someone will time Chris Stapleton's rendition and the line will move drastically before quickly being taken off the board, ruining all the fun.
Timing the anthem at your Super Bowl party provides a moment of pregame excitement. While there may not be an edge for the length of "The Star-Spangled Banner," if you think you know the pace of the performance, your fingers should be clicking at your sportsbook as quickly as they will be on your stopwatch app minutes before kickoff.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
