We've had fun all season long with the NFL's version of "Must See TV" Thursdays. We've tried to keep things light, using the famous TV show "Seinfeld" to help with our look at the prop markets and get us in the right state of mind. While the playoffs mean it's more serious for the players, we should be reminded that it's still just any other game for bettors, and there are still lessons to be taken from Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer.
"This is found money. I want to parlay it. I want to make a big score!" - George
"Oh, you mean you want to lose it." - Jerry
The NFL got a big score when they landed something of a Jaguars and Chargers parlay in the 4-seed versus 5-seed matchup in the AFC playoffs, with a pair of young star quarterbacks going head-to-head in Jacksonville.
In Season 4, Episode 20 of "Seinfeld," George buys $1900 worth of art in the hope that Roy - the rare "fat, starving artist," doesn't make it through surgery. In an iconic scene, Jerry and Kramer watch the procedure from the operating room gallery, accidentally dropping a refreshing Junior Mints candy right into a tight window the likes of which Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence dream of.
'The Junior Mint'
Jerry meets a woman in the produce section but can't remember her name. Travis Etienne's handle is easier to remember, without any rhyming help, with a regal-sounding surname derived from French origin and the word "crown."
The Jaguars tailback should be somewhere between a prince and a king against a Chargers run defense sadder than George watching "Home Alone" by himself in Jerry's apartment. Dead last in the league with 5.4 yards per carry allowed, the Chargers gave up an explosive rush of 18-plus yards in 13 of 17 games and often more than one in a game.
In six games against a team in the bottom 10 of the NFL in rush yards per carry, Etienne had explosive runs in four of those contests, while former Jaguar James Robinson had a 50-yard run in a Week 3 game against the Chargers before being traded in an effort to give Etienne more carries.
The above numbers would suggest something closer to 70% probability of a rush longer than 17 yards - a higher probability than the 53.5% implied win probability of a -115 price. The over on a long rush from Etienne is more likely than Jerry's guesses of "Mulva," "Bovary," and "Gipple" before he remembers his lady friend's name was Dolores.
Pick: Travis Etienne longest rush over 17.5 yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
George is delighted to have been notified of a latent bank account from his childhood that's accumulated interest, or "money without doing anything." While we like to joke that a touchdown in this space is some sort of guarantee, with Mike Williams' availability looking as shaky as Roy's health post-spleen surgery, Keenan Allen should be that much more of a focal option for Herbert near the end zone.
Allen's game log suggests he has four touchdowns in 10 games this season, which indicates a 40% probability and a fair +150 price. However, two of those games had Allen leave with a wonky hamstring. When he finally came back healthy, his usage picked back up to the previous season's levels - where he's scored in 14 of 30 games and four touchdowns in the final eight contests of this season.
We're not exactly pioneering statistics like Florence Nightingale - or are we thinking of Clara Barton? - but it's not hard to see that the likelihood of Allen scoring might be closer to 50-50, making him a good bet at +150.
Pick: Keenan Allen anytime touchdown (+150)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
The Junior Mint may have ended up saving Elaine's friend - the miracle he needed, but yet another bad bounce for George. If we're hoping for our own long shot to come through, let's rely on a 6-foot-8 tight end against a defense that covers tight ends less aggressively than Kramer wallpapering his apartment in fake wood.
Third-worst in the NFL against tight ends yardage-wise, the Jaguars struggle to defend short passes in general, and Donald Parham's snap-share has progressively increased in the four games since returning from a hamstring injury that kept him out for much of the season, even scoring against the Rams in Week 17.
Pick: Donald Parham anytime touchdown (+450)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
