Upsets in sports are great in the moment, but the excitement wanes when you look up to see the matchup in the next round. Lump me in with Cinderella's evil stepsisters, but I'm almost always more interested in betting a game with a tighter point spread. We tried to parse out who to back with a big number in our game preview, but when it comes to betting options for TCU-Georgia, there's more to target.
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia (-12.5, 62.5)
Sure, some college football player props are available for big games in the regular season, and there's a smattering available for the College Football Playoff semifinals, but the list of player-centric markets grows exponentially for the championship game. Here are the best bets on the board for more action on Monday night.
Max Duggan under 31.5 rushing yards
It's important to remember that sack yardage counts against rushing yardage for quarterbacks. So, while this number might feel low, given Duggan ran for 57 yards on 15 carries against Michigan, the Wolverines only had one sack to negate his positive rushing yardage. Georgia should get to Duggan more frequently, using his tendency to backpedal out of the pocket for a potential big yardage loss.
Just think about how often C.J. Stroud took off and the success he seemed to have scrambling in the Peach Bowl; he was credited with just 34 rush yards. The Bulldogs sacked Stroud four times and should have more of their defensive game plan designed to keep Duggan from scrambling - something that came as more of a surprise from Stroud.
Quentin Johnston under 88.5 receiving yards
Cornerback stats are notoriously hard to parse through, but Georgia's Kelee Ringo is a potential first-round pick and the best corner that Johnston - a potential first-rounder as well - will have faced in his career. It will take a combination of Duggan escaping the Georgia rush, trusting Johnston to win at the top of his route, and/or the wideout breaking a tackle in order to hit on a reception long enough to push this over Johnston's game-long total.
Daijun Edwards over 49.5 rushing yards
Edwards gets second billing on the oddsboard to Kenny McIntosh, presumably because McIntosh leads Georgia in rushing. However, Edwards - a junior, is only 40 yards behind the senior in season-long totals and out-carried McIntosh 8-5 in the Peach Bowl. The senior is the better option in the passing game, but if Georgia gets a big lead - which a 12.5-point spread suggests - it's likely Edwards gets the carries late.
Adonai Mitchell anytime touchdown (-120)
Speaking of the macro betting markets, the Bulldogs' team total is 38 points, so the expectation is Georgia will score five-to-six touchdowns. As such, a -120 price for an anytime touchdown makes a lot more sense relative to what we're used to seeing, especially for someone with just two touchdowns this season.
Sophomore wideout Mitchell scored in the first game of the season against Oregon but missed much of the rest of the season with a high-ankle sprain. Mitchell returned from a long absence against LSU but really looked back to 100% against Ohio State. Bulldogs play-callers got back to trusting Mitchell - who scored in each of last season's playoff games as a freshman - looking to him for the game-winning touchdown in the Peach Bowl. He makes it 4-for-4 in CFP touchdowns in Los Angeles.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
