We might need more than nine days to get over our New Year's Eve hangover. Not because we got particularly loose on the dance floor - especially since many of us stayed on the couch - but because the two College Football Playoff semifinals were everything we could have hoped for entertainment-wise, and then some.
The problem with last Saturday's games was that they didn't reflect much of our perception of those four teams based on their 12-plus-game resumes. After an explosive first offensive play, Michigan couldn't run the football despite forecasting a "smashfest," while its highly rated defense couldn't stop the run. We thought Georgia might struggle with C.J. Stroud, but the Buckeyes quarterback saved his best for last. The over was rarely in doubt, but when it was, it happened because Ohio State's defense exceeded expectations.
As we handicap a surprising national championship matchup, we ask ourselves: What elements of their respective semifinals are sustainable for TCU and Georgia?
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia (-12, 63.5)
Football Outsiders' Efficiency Ranking:
| OFEI | DFEI | |
|---|---|---|
| TCU | 12 | 19 |
| Georgia | 4 | 1 |
TCU's offense vs. Georgia's defense
We're waiting on the status of TCU star tailback Kendre Miller, who left the Fiesta Bowl with a knee injury. Emari Demercado filled in admirably with 17 carries for 150 yards but, unlike Michigan's, Georgia's run defense showed up to the semifinal. The Bulldogs held Ohio State running backs to 79 yards on 20 carries. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter is the big boss awaiting TCU in the final level. Can the underdog Horned Frogs create the same running lanes with him in the middle that they did against Michigan?
Michigan repeatedly blitzed TCU, and quarterback Max Duggan and Frogs offensive coordinator Garrett Riley were ready. Their big plays came when either the Wolverines didn't fill the gaps in run defense or Duggan eluded pressure just long enough to make big plays. Duggan only completed 14 of 29 passes, which is part of the reason the Wolverines fought their way back into the game.
Ohio State joined LSU as teams that successfully threw on Georgia this season, but with Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Julian Fleming providing Stroud a trio of options, the Buckeyes were able to avoid top-ranked cornerback Kelee Ringo. If Ringo gets the assignment of defending Quentin Johnston and the Bulldogs can get their usual pressure when rushing four, then the calculus for TCU will change.
Georgia's offense vs. TCU's defense
Michigan's "smashfest" turned out to be more of a Fyre Festival, and instead of setting up J.J. McCarthy for success, it set him up for a pair of picked-off passes that were returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Georgia racked up 533 yards in the Peach Bowl and, as much as we worried about the Buckeyes' defense against good competition, it was still rated eighth nationally by Football Outsiders going into last week's game.
TCU gave up a handful of long pass plays to McCarthy, but it helped the Frogs' defense that Michigan lost Luke Schoonmaker early and lacked a big-target alternative. Georgia has Brock Bowers and is hoping to have Darnell Washington healthy for its elite tight-end duo to be available. Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett is also going for back-to-back national championships and reconnected with star receiver Adonai Mitchell in the Peach Bowl. A resume featuring wins over Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ohio State is a far cry from what McCarthy brought to the big stage.
How to bet the CFP National Championship
TCU kept Michigan at arm's length, and all it took was:
- A fourth-down goal-line stop
- An erroneous overturned-touchdown-turned-fumble at the goal line
- Two pick-6s
- A missed tackle on third down that turned into a 76-yard Frogs TD
Conservatively, that's somewhere around a 30-point cumulative swing on high-leverage/explosive plays in a six-point game.
For all of Michigan's failures on offense, it still accumulated 528 yards on TCU without the game-breakers or the reliable targets - both in talent and depth - that Georgia has. If the Bulldogs shoot themselves in the foot like Michigan did, I will be very surprised. Given all four semifinal teams hit the 40-point mark, going over a team total of 38 feels slightly less daunting.
ESPN's SP+ ratings suggest this line should be Georgia -11, and we may see that by Monday, triggering a bet. Like their projections for Ohio State-Georgia, you may see the line continue to dip toward the underdog from its -13.5 opening.
With a spread this big, can TCU keep up? And if Georgia scores 40, can we expect TCU to get to 28 points? Although LSU and Ohio State did, both offenses were capable of throwing the ball almost exclusively. TCU could pull that off against the defenses of the Big 12, but the Frogs won't be able to against Georgia.
Pick: Georgia team total over 38 points / Georgia -12
*Note on hedging futures:
A TCU 200-1 future is best used as equity to freeroll a Georgia moneyline bet. The Bulldogs can be found at -450 or better, and even if you took a stab at hedging TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, you still have $1,690 of equity on an original $10 bet and can put that toward the Georgia moneyline.
In the Peach Bowl preview, we said a future bet on a top team is a bet that it will win its semifinal. Now that Georgia has advanced, you can hedge with TCU (a moneyline bet) or try to middle the game (a TCU point spread bet), but I would let a Georgia future ride. Bulldogs bettors got an unprecedented stroke of luck with this matchup, creating a situation where the Dawgs are this big of a favorite.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
