Daniel Jones isn't on his third team like Carson Wentz, but he is on his third head coach and offensive coordinator since being drafted in 2019. Your prognosis for the Giants in 2022 probably rests on how you feel about Brian Daboll - along with his right-hand man and first-time offensive coordinator Mike Kafka - and the ability to get the most out of Jones. Will they be an upgrade on... *checks notes*... Mike Shula and Jason Garrett?
Before we get into their coaching staff, let's see what kind of belief the market has in New York.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.0 (+105/-125) |
| Division | +800 |
| Conference | +6000 |
| Super Bowl | +13000 |
OK, so admittedly not a ton of belief. The juice is leaning to the under on seven wins, and if a revamped Jones leads the Giants to a stunning Super Bowl LVII title, the most ardent of New York fans will cash tickets at 130-1. However, there's a narrative behind the Giants and how a championship could arrive after modest regular seasons.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @TEN | +6.5 |
| 2 | CAR | -1 |
| 3 | DAL | +4 |
| 4 | CHI | -2.5 |
| 5 | @GB | +7 |
| 6 | BAL | +3.5 |
| 7 | @JAX | +1.5 |
| 8 | @SEA | +2.5 |
| 10 | HOU | -3 |
| 11 | DET | -1.5 |
| 12 | @DAL | +7 |
| 13 | WSH | PK |
| 14 | PHI | +1.5 |
| 15 | @WSH | +3.5 |
| 16 | @MIN | +5 |
| 17 | IND | +3 |
| 18 | @PHI | +5 |
The NFL betting community isn't tripping over themselves to buy futures on the Titans, so they may be ripe for a Week 1 upset by a team that has a fresh offense. Following that, the Giants have three straight home games; 4-0 would be a stretch, but 3-1 would certainly change the outlook for a team with just four wins last season under Joe Judge.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
The Giants finished tied for 10th in opponents' yards per play last year. Their 5.3 defensive YPP equaled playoff teams like the Patriots and Packers, and is the exact same average they gave up in 2020. Adding a veteran defensive coordinator in Don "Wink" Martindale is a lateral move, and using their first pick in the draft on Kayvon Thibodeaux - who at various times was thought to be going first overall - shows the Giants' front office knows the talent can be augmented on a pretty good unit.
Weaknesses
Outside of left tackle Andrew Thomas, who made a leap in Year 2, the offensive line was a disaster last season. The Giants' front office has rightfully blown up a group that was ranked 30th by Pro Football Focus at the end of last year. With their second first-round pick inside the top 10, the Giants grabbed Evan Neal to play opposite Thomas.
The decision to pass on pass-catchers and firm up the trenches is a gamble - not on the players picked but on receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. The pair had high expectations last season but had as many touchdowns as you and I.
Opportunities
Daboll came from stints with Bill Belichick and Nick Saban to be the offensive coordinator in Buffalo in 2018. He was charged with turning a mobile quarterback drafted in the first round from a project to a product. After four seasons, Josh Allen is now the favorite for MVP. It may not be a quick turnaround, but Jones already has three years of experience, albeit with Garrett and Shula calling plays. Meanwhile, Kafka was hired away from Andy Reid in Kansas City.
If Jones can't excel with Daboll and Kafka, with as much capital as the Giants have spent on the positions around him, then the Giants can cut bait. However, if Jones makes a 2023 decision difficult by playing well enough to force them to buy him out of free agency, high-end results might be in the cards for New York.
Threats
Obviously, the big threat for bettors is that Jones just isn't any good. While that's not even a terrible long-term result for the Giants as a whole, it would lead to 2022 bets crashing and burning.
How to bet the Giants
If there was a "Most Improved Player award" to bet on, Jones would be a great candidate. As it is, he's +800 to be the Comeback of the Year, though it's hard to define what he's coming back from. Jones' passing yards total of 3650.5 is roughly 800 yards shy of what Allen has done the last two years.
Daboll would get a ton of credit for his turnaround, which is why he's +1800 to win Coach of the Year.
Thibodeaux's +550 odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year are too short now, but if someone else gets the early headlines, and his odds lengthen, we'll jump on his potential to wreck games late in the season.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
