Sports fans and those turned into sports bettors love the unknown. Potential is often misconstrued as limitless, and hope for the success of a fresh face or new-look team abounds more than we care to admit. However, when it comes to Carson Wentz, we've seen too much.
The Washington Football Team won seven games last year without a nickname or a bona fide starting quarterback. They paid more than one would expect to acquire Wentz, a quarterback who inspires as little enthusiasm as the Commanders name. Given how quickly Wentz's previous two teams wanted to rid themselves of his highly volatile, turnover-laden performances, the futures betting markets had an interesting take on this move.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.0 (-110/-110) |
| Division | +500 |
| Conference | +3000 |
| Super Bowl | +7000 |
Before Washington put Wentz in command of its offense and cleared up the future of Ron Rivera and his coaching staff, the Commanders were 50-1 to win the Super Bowl. Without the uncertainty - or unbridled hope - over who might be under center, their odds lengthened to 70-1. While the Washington faithful is disappointed, the silver lining is that the team's expected to record eight wins this year.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | -4 |
| 2 | @DET | -1.5 |
| 3 | PHI | PK |
| 4 | @DAL | +6 |
| 5 | TEN | PK |
| 6 | @CHI | -1.5 |
| 7 | GB | +3.5 |
| 8 | @IND | +5 |
| 9 | MIN | PK |
| 10 | @PHI | +3.5 |
| 11 | @HOU | -3 |
| 12 | ATL | -5 |
| 13 | @NYG | PK |
| 15 | NYG | -3.5 |
| 16 | @SF | +6 |
| 17 | CLE | N/A |
| 18 | DAL | +1 |
There's lots of uncertainty in a Week 1 game with the Jaguars - another team with a quarterback capable of a wide margin in quality of play. None of Washington's games are lined outside of a touchdown, befitting of a team set for eight wins, but a 3-0 start isn't out of the question. Late in the season, the Commanders have the advantage of focusing solely on the division-rival Giants for three weeks, with back-to-back matchups sandwiched by their bye.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
From 2017 through 2021, Washington systematically selected defensive players for the front seven in the first round of the NFL draft. All of the selections are expected to start - and excel - in 2022. Chase Young is the headliner of the group, even though he missed the latter half of an already disappointing season after tearing his ACL in Week 10. Murmurs that the 2020 first overall pick was playing outside of the system to accumulate personal stats undermined his potential to impact games.
Including a unit that was 28th in opponents' yards per pass attempt and recorded just 1.1 takeaways per game as a strength is almost unheard of. But with the talent they've built up in the trenches, there has to be improvement.
Weaknesses
Part of putting our eggs in the defensive basket in D.C. stems from concern about the offense. Taylor Heinicke threw 15 interceptions (two shy of the league most) and added seven fumbles. In an attempt to improve on that, Washington dealt two quality draft picks for Wentz and his 66 career fumbles over six seasons. Wentz did have just seven interceptions last season, after recording 15 in his final season with the Eagles. Did he turn over a new leaf or benefit from a Colts offense that had Jonathan Taylor to make life easier?
Opportunities
Ideally, we'd like to be able to glean something from Wentz in the first few games of the season, but considering he's liable to change on-field personalities like Jekyll and Hyde, fully trusting anything we see seems foolish.
Strangely, Young is the one we'll want to get a read on. Is he playing within the design of the defense? That'll go a long way to showing us if the Commanders can keep the game state manageable, allowing them to ask little of Wentz.
Threats
Rivera's teams usually produce pretty consistent results, a direct contrast to what we've become accustomed to with Wentz. A positive position on Washington can get washed away quickly, but so can a negative one. It's best to avoid this team in any futures market before the season.
How to bet the Commanders
With Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel around, Jahan Dotson should have the opportunity to get lost in the open field, a luxury he wasn't afforded at Penn State. He's +2500 for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Given the hype surrounding Young, if he returns healthy and can fit in better with his teammates, he could get attention for Defensive Player of the Year. At 20-1, that's a pretty good price for someone with the same talent as those at shorter odds, but 25-1 to lead the league in sacks is even better.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
