The Raiders weren't supposed to hit the over on their 2021 win total let alone cash any "make the playoffs" tickets. This was especially true after their head coach was ousted midway through the season, among other off-field issues for a talent-deficient roster. Somehow, they gave the Bengals everything they could handle in a wild-card game and covered the 6-point spread.
This offseason, the Raiders hired Josh McDaniels away from the Patriots and signed Davante Adams away from the Packers - two significant adds for a team that just tasted postseason football. How has the market reacted to this cultural shift in Las Vegas?
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-120/+100) |
| Division | +650 |
| Conference | +2000 |
| Super Bowl | +4000 |
Everything you need to know about the competitiveness of the AFC West lies in the fact that the Raiders' win total is 8.5 - juiced to the over - and they're still the fourth choice to win the division at +650.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @LAC | +3.5 |
| 2 | ARZ | -2.5 |
| 3 | @TEN | +1 |
| 4 | DEN | PK |
| 5 | @KC | +6 |
| 7 | HOU | +8 |
| 8 | @NO | PK |
| 9 | @JAX | -3 |
| 10 | IND | -2 |
| 11 | @DEN | +3 |
| 12 | @SEA | -2 |
| 13 | LAC | PK |
| 14 | @LAR | +4 |
| 15 | NE | -3 |
| 16 | @PIT | -1.5 |
| 17 | SF | -1.5 |
| 18 | KC | +2 |
Tightly lined games are found throughout the Raiders' schedule. Given their 8-9 win total, it isn't all that surprising. It just goes to show how, with a couple of bounces here and there, a mediocre team can end up 12-5 or 5-12.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
Derek Carr's stock rose last year, as he carried the Raiders to the playoffs. Now he's got one of his best friends on the team who is coincidentally one of the game's great wide receivers. The connection with Carr's college teammate, Adams, is expected to be great. Considering Carr was already locked in with Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller, there's reason to believe this offense could be the best Carr has ever operated.
The defense was surprisingly good in 2021, finishing in the top 10 in opponent yards per pass attempt. The defensive line swaps out team sack leader Yannick Ngakoue for Chandler Jones. It will be up to the former Cardinals defensive end to replace that production, which is no guarantee given almost half of Jones' 10.5 sacks came in Week 1 last season.
Weaknesses
The most impressive aspect of Carr's 2021 season was that he performed behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. Kolton Miller had an excellent 84.2 overall grade, but no one else was better than 64.2, according to Pro Football Focus. Alex Leatherwood is currently on the depth chart at right tackle, which is terrifying given he posted a PFF pass-blocking grade of 29.
Opportunities
In theory, hiring Josh McDaniels is done with an eye on improving an offense and guiding a young quarterback's development. That's not really what the Raiders need, as the veteran Carr already knows what calls he likes and has shown an ability to take advantage of overaggressive, blitz-heavy defenses.
Much has been made of Belichick's assistants who've moved to other teams with expectations of giving that new squad a strategic or game-management edge, only to see them flop - including McDaniels in his first head coaching stint with the Broncos.
It's also assumed Adams will be a boost to the Raiders' offense. Maybe that will be the case, but that sentiment is already built into the various Raiders odds in team markets. Since no one is saying the McDaniels-Carr-Adams triumvirate isn't going to work, it's hard to imagine they're being undervalued, even at tantalizing prices.
Threats
If Carr and the Raiders' offense are merely as good as they were in 2021, will that be enough to make up for a defense that is returning just four total interceptions from last year's roster? No one on Las Vegas had more than a single interception, and Jones' dwindling sack total through the final 16 games is a concern.
How to bet the Raiders
The three other teams in the division don't have many holes, so even a 2-4 record in the AFC West would be impressive. After that, you're left with nine games with projected point spreads inside of a field goal. At even money, under 8.5 wins is a decent bet, but the Raiders' actual win total will probably be pretty close to their projection. Of course, if Carr misses time, the under becomes almost a certainty.
If Carr (+1000) remains healthy, he can make a run at the most passing yards in the league regardless of how many games the Raiders win. Adams being in silver and black is just another reason for McDaniels to open up the offense even more. Should the defense not hold up, Carr will be forced to air it out.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
