Though it wasn't a new trend, many were still surprised the Cardinals wilted down the stretch last season. Maybe the extra few games of winning football - a 10-2 start had them in first place into December - fooled some of the betting public. The reality is that Kliff Kingsbury teams are better early than they are late, a trend that dates back to his Texas Tech stint from 2013 to 2018.
| YEAR | FIRST 7 GAMES | AFTER 7TH GAME |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 7-0 | 1-5 |
| 2014 | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| 2015 | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| 2016 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| 2017 | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| 2018 | 5-2 | 0-5 |
| 2019 | 3-3-1 | 2-7 |
| 2020 | 5-2 | 3-6 |
| 2021 | 7-0 | 4-6 |
Admittedly, Texas Tech seasons begin with some cushy nonconference matchups before the Big 12 Conference schedule, which is naturally harder. But that isn't enough to explain the difference between an opening 42-20-1 record and a post-Game 7 tally of 17-44, especially considering the disparity in Kingsbury's three seasons in the NFL. What does it all mean for the Cardinals in the main betting markets in 2022?
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-115/-105) |
| Division | +400 |
| Conference | +2000 |
| Super Bowl | +3500 |
The market appears to be taking a "fool me once" approach to the Cardinals, lumping them in the juicy middle of numerous teams lined around .500. With last season's NFC Championship Game contenders gobbling up a large percentage of the NFC West win probability, the +400 price might seem long for a team that started 10-2 last year.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | +3 |
| 2 | @LV | +2.5 |
| 3 | LAR | +2 |
| 4 | @CAR | -1.5 |
| 5 | PHI | -2 |
| 6 | @SEA | -2.5 |
| 7 | NO | -3 |
| 8 | @MIN | +1 |
| 9 | SEA | -6.5 |
| 10 | @LAR | +6 |
| 11 | SF | +2.5 |
| 12 | LAC | +1.5 |
| 14 | NE | -2.5 |
| 15 | @DEN | +4 |
| 16 | TB | +2.5 |
| 17 | @ATL | -3.5 |
| 18 | @SF | +3 |
Every single game is lined inside of a converted touchdown. There's a stark contrast in Weeks 9 and 10 when Arizona could theoretically go from touchdown favorite to underdog.
If we went by strict point spread expectation, the Cardinals are supposed to go 4-3 in their first seven games and 3-7 in their last 10 with this schedule.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
The fear Kyler Murray's running ability puts into opposing defenses is the Cardinals' biggest difference-maker. However, would you be surprised to find out Murray had no more than seven carries in any game before he missed November due to injury?
If the idea was to ensure Murray remains healthy by keeping him out of the open field, it didn't really work. Plus, he only took off twice in the offensive horror show that was Arizona's wild-card game against the Rams.
DeAndre Hopkins' absence can account for much of the Cardinals' late-season woes. As much as we point fingers at Kingsbury, Hopkins was hurt during the Cards' first loss of the season in Week 8 and played just two games the rest of the year. He'll miss six games to start the 2022 season due to suspension. Arizona bolstered the position by dealing its first-round draft pick to the Ravens for Marquise Brown. Rondale Moore's development and what's left of A.J. Green will go a long way in deciding how explosive the Cards' offense is - with or without Hopkins.
Weaknesses
James Conner thrilled fantasy managers with 15 touchdowns, but the Cardinals' run game left a lot to be desired, thanks to blocking struggles from a very average offensive line. Chase Edmonds had the best yards per carry, but he left to the Dolphins.
The defense was just OK following the season-opening destruction of the Titans. Chandler Jones had five sacks that game but is no longer in Arizona, which could make for a very vulnerable secondary lacking in quality talent.
Opportunities
The Cardinals are home underdogs in Week 1, and given some upheaval with the Chiefs, maybe there's some value in Arizona at a full field goal or more. If the Cards win that game, the market may overreact and give bettors a better number on the Raiders and Rams the following two weeks.
Threats
The second half of the season is a perennial threat to Kingsbury and the Cardinals' chances, and the wear and tear on Murray doesn't help. The defense will be very vulnerable to quality passing offenses that feature quarterbacks Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady. Overs might be on the menu come November, knowing that the market will likely be ready to sell the Cardinals as a side this time around.
How to bet the Cardinals
A healthy Murray (+2000) would need to drag the Cardinals to an outstanding season in an MVP-caliber campaign - first via a shorthanded offense, and then largely to overcome defensive deficiencies in Arizona. He's 25-1 to lead the league in passing yards and 40-1 to lead in passing touchdowns, but all of these accomplishments would be a big jump from previous career highs.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
