There are a lot of sports-betting lessons - not beating yourself up when you lose is one of the main ones. It's also good advice in life. Last week's AFC Championship Game had those of us backing the Chiefs feeling good for 29 minutes and 50 seconds before it all went sideways - but we've lived to talk about it.
Whether on the field or in the sportsbook, getting stunned by the underdog can shake the foundation of your preparation. You ask yourself questions like, "Is there something I might have missed?"
The Bengals shook the football world following their remarkable comeback in Kansas City and now look to complete the incredible fairytale as underdogs once again against the Rams in Super Bowl LVI. Can lightning strike a third time in these playoffs for Cincinnati in the underdog role?
Bengals vs. Rams (-4.5, 48.5)
The Bengals seemed poised to get run out of Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC championship but made adjustments to hang in and took advantage of the Chiefs' mistakes. Now we have to acknowledge the fact the Bengals haven't definitively been the better team in any of their three playoff wins, as evidenced by the yards per play battle:
| GAME | CIN YPP | OPP YPP |
|---|---|---|
| vs LV | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| @ TEN | 5.4 | 6.8 |
| @ KC | 5.4 | 5.6 |
While not an egregious discrepancy, winning playoff football games with an average offensive efficiency while allowing an above-average offensive efficiency isn't an ideal script for winning.
While that's a red flag for the Bengals, it only matters if the Rams can put them in the same awkward position. Los Angeles was good enough for 6.6 YPP, 6.1 YPP, and 5.2 YPP in their three playoff games. The worst of those numbers came against San Francisco, whose defense was playing at its highest level of the season against a team it was familiar with.
With all due respect to the Bengals' defense and the adjustments coordinator Lou Anarumo made to fluster Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' staff, I expect the Rams to be able to move the ball at better than six yards per play.
All of this is reason enough for the Rams to be favored in the same way the Titans and Chiefs were before them.
But how have the Bengals overcome deficits caused by sacks taken, an inconsistent running game, and trouble stopping the run?
The answer during this playoff run: takeaways.
| GAME | TAKEAWAYS |
|---|---|
| vs LV | 2 |
| @ TEN | 3 |
| @KC | 2 |
The Bengals' fourth-down stop against the Titans and the Chiefs wasting the final drive of the first half aren't credited as turnovers, but that's nine drives in three games that ended in catastrophe for the opponent. Meanwhile, the Bengals have just two turnovers this postseason. That will quickly make up for a yardage differential, but is that sustainable for a team that averaged 1.2 takeaways per game in the regular season?
If Matthew Stafford continues his penchant for throwing interceptions, it might be. Despite lingering injuries causing issues with arm strength, the quarterback is too often willing to trust receivers to make a play on a deep ball, frequently getting intercepted down the field. Avoiding a negative turnover margin might be as simple as instituting a "stop doing that" policy.
The Rams can accumulate yardage on the ground; they've shown a willingness to stick with that approach no matter the game script with 30, 24, and 23 tailback carries so far in the playoffs. That should work against the Bengals' run defense that's allowed 5.9 yards per carry in the playoffs - a result of losing Larry Ogunjobi in the wild-card game.
With the best offensive line the Bengals have faced, the Rams' intermediate receiving options like Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, and a healthy Tyler Higbee will have success if Sean McVay encourages a patient approach.
For the Bengals' offense, you'll continue to hear about the Cincinnati offensive line and its struggles to protect Joe Burrow. The nine sacks allowed at Tennessee have shined light on that, and it's easy to see Aaron Donald, Greg Gaines, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd having a relatively easy path to Burrow. Though that's built into the YPP numbers and any other advanced offensive metrics that Cincinnati has been able to overcome.
The bets
As much as I think there's a path to a comfortable victory for the Rams, I'm still concerned about McVay and his inability to manage a game in a +EV way. Snap decisions on challenges and a conservative approach to fourth downs is not a combination I want when laying over a field goal. When the Rams win comfortably, they do so because of what McVay does before the game and not what he does during the game.
As strange as it may sound, if you're going to back the Rams, I'd do so either via the moneyline or the alternate spread. Or both. As we get closer to kickoff, I expect money to come in on the underdog Bengals which should shorten the Rams moneyline, potentially below -170.
Instead of the no man's land -4.5 line. I'd rather bet the Rams -9.5 (+160) because I want plus-odds on them winning comfortably. Laying -110 for the Rams to win by a touchdown in a close game doesn't appeal to me if we're relying on McVay to do everything right in the fourth quarter.
As for the total, if the Rams are able to rush the quarterback like the Titans and cover better than the Chiefs in conjunction with moving the ball methodically, they should be able to close the game out in a way that will keep it under the total.
Pick:
- Rams ML (wait for -170 or better)
- Rams -9.5 alternative spread (+160 or better)
- Under (wait for 49)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
