It'd be nice if it were always so simple. In our preview of the first College Football Playoff semifinal, I wrote that Brian Robinson's rushing yards would be worth a bet on the over up to 110.5 yards. His total opened at 80.5 and I felt foolish - until he blew over that number in the second quarter en route to a 204-yard day. Who's the idiot now? Well, it's still me, since I didn't bet nearly enough on something that seemed a little too obvious at the time.
As the CFP National Championship nears, we've already discussed who to back in our game preview. Here, we'll dive into the player props that warrant a look based on how we think the game will play out. This will hopefully prove as easy as the Robinson over.
Brian Robinson under 80.5 rushing yards
We're not taking Robinson's over this week, especially with theScore Bet lining it at 80.5. In fact, lined at the same number as he was before the Cincinnati game, this is a great spot to fade him. Georgia's defensive front is light years ahead of the Bearcats' - and that of every other team - in terms of size and talent.
The game plan will be different, too. If it wasn't clear to Alabama that running the football wasn't a smart option before the SEC championship, then it certainly should be now, after Robinson managed just 55 yards on 16 carries in Atlanta. Why would Nick Saban and Bill O'Brien change what worked for them that day, when Bryce Young had 421 passing yards? Shop around, as I would play this down to 76.5 rushing yards.
Stetson Bennett under 13.5 rushing yards
The Alabama defense has done well to adjust to facing mobile quarterbacks after an early-season gashing by Emory Jones and Florida. The Tide held Bennett to 11 yards on seven carries Dec. 4, before pushing Desmond Ridder to minus-6 rushing yards Dec. 31.
It's worth mentioning that, rightly or wrongly, sack yardage is factored into a quarterback's rushing total in college football. The Tide had six sacks against the Bearcats and three in the SEC title game, which pushed Bennett's rush yardage backward.
James Cook over 20.5 receiving yards
Georgia might deploy easier, outside throws given Bennett's three sacks and two interceptions over the middle in the previous matchup with Bama. He threw absolute dimes down the sideline against Michigan on Dec. 31, further reinforcing the viability of this approach.
Whether it's via screen passes to take the starch out of the Tide pass rush, wheel routes down the sideline, or lining Cook up on the outside in man-coverage against a linebacker, Bennett should look for his best pass-catching running back early and often.
While oddsmakers adjusted Robinson's numbers after his big game, they strangely haven't changed Cook's receiving yards despite a four-catch, 112-yard night. Even a four-catch, 28-yard game like the one Cook had in Atlanta would cash this bet. Given how often Georgia targets Cook deep, I prefer yards over receptions here.
Ja'Corey Brooks over 45.5 receiving yards, anytime touchdown (+450)
Jameson Williams roasted the Bulldogs for 184 yards on seven receptions last time, and with John Metchie out, stopping Williams has to be the entire first page of the Georgia game plan. Brooks replaced Metchie and produced 66 yards and a touchdown in a low-volume passing game.
Although Brooks didn't make his first catch of the season until November, he delivered when Alabama needed a season-saving touchdown late against Auburn to force overtime. The Tide know they need to throw to beat the Bulldogs, but Brooks isn't being priced like Metchie due to his lower reputation. As we know, though, good receivers grow on trees in Tuscaloosa, so look for another Alabama freshman to give Georgia fits in a title game.
Cameron Latu anytime touchdown (+380)
It's virtually impossible to run on Georgia in the red zone, and with half the secondary staring at Williams, Latu should see plenty of involvement. Not known for being a run-blocker, seven of the Alabama tight end's 21 receptions have gone for a touchdown, including a score against Cincinnati. This is another good price for a guy whose probability to score is higher than an implied win probability of 20.8%.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
