Alabama is set to play in its sixth national championship game since the inaugural College Football Playoff in 2014, while Georgia is preparing for its second appearance. The Bulldogs played in the CFP finale in the 2017 season when they lost 26-23 in overtime to Bama on a touchdown pass from Tua Tagovailoa to DeVonta Smith.
This also marks the first time the CFP National Championship will host a conference championship rematch from earlier in the season.
Alabama vs. Georgia (-3, 52)
Line history
If anyone tells you there's any value in the main markets of this contest, they're making things up. That's the nature of a championship game. The market opens, the line gets bet into, and it settles at the appropriate price - particularly for a neutral-site matchup where there's no confusion about what home-field advantage might be worth. These teams also just met in the SEC championship, which the betting world had more than a week to weigh in on.
Bettors put their money on the Bulldogs ahead of that SEC championship game in Atlanta, betting them up to 6.5-point favorites. Alabama won that contest on the road, and the perception has since changed. Both programs dominated in their CFP semifinal wins, and the setting is the only difference for this rematch, shifting from the Peach State to the Hoosier State.
On New Year's Eve, Georgia opened as favorites again, this time at less than a field goal. The line change from the conference championship isn't because of anything that happened during the CFP semifinals, but rather due to the Crimson Tide's big win a month earlier. The line still ticked up a hair over the next few days, with the Bulldogs now sitting as three-point favorites.
As for the total, the SEC championship number was set at 50. For the national championship, 53 was the most available opening total. It's since ticked down a point.
On the field
The running game is always a grind when these teams meet. Georgia did a decent job in the previous matchup, running its three tailbacks 22 times for 97 yards. It might sound shocking after watching Alabama's Brian Robinson run for more than 200 yards against Cincinnati, but he only gained 3.4 yards per carry on 16 totes against Georgia. This is less surprising considering the Bulldogs' wall of a defensive line gave Michigan next to nothing on the ground in the CFP semifinal.
It's easy to look at the box score from the SEC championship and see that both teams tend to move the ball through the air. Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young didn't have to do much in the CFP semifinal but still managed three touchdowns. Georgia's adjustments have to focus on preventing something like the 421 yards that Young hung on them in Atlanta. That might be slightly easier with star receiver John Metchie out for the Crimson Tide, but there's still more talent down Alabama's roster.
The Bulldogs' defense gets the credit for being legitimately terrifying to teams that can't match up in the trenches. But Alabama's edge is in the preparation. The Crimson Tide's concern going into the SEC title game was pass protection, so Nick Saban and Bill O'Brien crafted a quick-release pass game using a fleet of receivers. Alabama only had one receiver post more than 300 yards during the regular season.
Defensively, Saban's crew gave up 449 yards to the Dawgs during the conference championship, including an early 97-yard touchdown drive to put Georgia up 10-0. However, Alabama's defense tricked Stetson Bennett into creating a big play for them, as he threw a back-breaking pick-6 early in the fourth quarter.
The game-sealing interception might have come after the damage had been done anyway. The Tide showed that while running the ball wasn't much of an option, they could be explosive in a way that none of Georgia's other opponents could.
A bet on the Bulldogs would mean relying on my main concern with the program - their head coach. Kirby Smart pulls together a loaded roster in Athens year after year, but there's a reason the Dawgs have never gotten over the hump. We saw Smart berating Bennett at the end of the second quarter last week, apparently unaware that he could have called timeouts to get Georgia more plays before the first-half clock ran out. Even en route to a blowout victory, there's evidence of a mistake that Saban just wouldn't make.
Smart is 0-4 against Saban. And while he may have the better roster this season, Smart won't get that big win until he out-recruits Alabama at quarterback. Even if he gets a career-making 'W' this time around, we've got three points to work with in case this game is much closer. A three-point spread also includes the possibility of getting another instant classic that finds its way into overtime, where two-point conversions may come into play.
People scoffed at bettors backing Alabama a month ago, thinking it couldn't be so simple as to blindly bet Saban as an underdog. We'll never get the 6.5 points that were available that afternoon, but with this point spread up to a full field goal, I'll trust college football's coaching GOAT to outfox Smart. Enough to cover, at least.
Lastly, I'll put the same strategy in place that we did for the SEC championship - a live bet on Alabama should be made if Georgia takes an early lead. The thinking is that Young has a better chance to succeed playing from behind than if the situation was reversed.
Pick: Alabama +3 (live bet at a better number if UGA takes early lead)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
