Any interest in early bowl games for New Year's Eve has been wiped out due to cancellations and various matchup changes, meaning the runway is cleared for the College Football Playoff.
The first semifinal sees Nick Saban's SEC winners and defending national title champions, Alabama, take on a Cincinnati team making history as the first Group of Five program to appear in the CFP.
Cincinnati vs. Alabama (-13.5, 57.5)
Line movement
The Crimson Tide opened as 14-point favorites, though early support for the Bearcats took it off the key number. The total has fallen from 59 to 57.5.
Cincinnati's offense vs. Alabama's defense
The Bearcats' best chance to win rests on the legs of Jerome Ford and Desmond Ridder. Ford, Cincinnati's star running back, had 1,238 rush yards and 19 touchdowns, while Ridder chipped in with 361 rushing yards of his own as a passer. Given the Bearcats' relatively soft schedule, they rarely needed Ridder to contribute on the ground as much as he could have. But can Ridder use his legs against Alabama?
Unsurprisingly, Alabama's run defense was outstanding this year, giving up just 2.51 yards per carry (second-best in the country). While that presents a challenge for Ford, the Crimson Tide allowed 76 yards on the ground to passer Emory Jones when Florida almost shocked Alabama early in the season.
Guess what? Saban saw that and immediately fixed it. Here are the following rushing outputs from capable quarterbacks on the Tide's schedule:
| OPPONENT | QB | CARRIES-YARDS |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | Matt Corral | 10-3 |
| Tennessee | Hendon Hooker | 13-10 |
| Arkansas | K.J. Jefferson | 13-22 |
| Georgia | Stetson Bennett | 7-11 |
Meanwhile, in the Bearcats' two toughest games of the season, against Notre Dame (10 carries, 26 yards) and Houston (seven carries, 19 yards), Ridder was contained on the ground.
Given how unlikely it is that Cincinnati gets an explosive running play, the team will need to use the short passing attack to convert first downs and keep the ball out of the hands of Bryce Young and the Alabama offense.
With eight different players producing over 200 receiving yards, but none over 900, Cincinnati spreads it around in the passing game. The Tide can't focus on eliminating one weapon, but the Bearcats are unlikely to be explosive via the air, either.
Alabama's offense vs. Cincinnati's defense
Since last we saw the Tide, they've gotten healthier at tailback and less so at wide receiver with John Metchie tearing a knee ligament in the SEC Championship. While Alabama is known for having more than enough talent, pass protection has been this team's weakness. Against Georgia, Saban devised a quick passing attack that took advantage of the Bulldogs' defensive weakness - their secondary - while not exposing the Tide's offensive line.
However, the Bearcats' secondary is their greatest defensive strength, featuring NFL cornerback prospects Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant. Whether it's Gardner playing the boundary side or Bryant, Cincinnati can rely on the duo to hold up in man coverage knowing Jameson Williams is Bama's sole reliable threat. Luke Fickell can dial up pressures with an underrated front seven the same way Auburn and LSU did against the Tide in close losses.
Despite its Heisman-winning quarterback, Alabama's advantage still exists in the run game. We'll see Saban deploy the same game plan he used against Ole Miss, where the Tide ran the ball repeatedly and dared their opponent to stop Brian Robinson and the fleet of runners that give him a breather. This could be an old-school Alabama offensive effort.
Special teams
When Alabama has lost (or come close to it) under Saban, something has often gone awry in the third phase. Football Outsiders has the Tide ranked 48th in total special teams, in comparison to the 18th-rated Bearcats. Will Reichard was 16-for-20 on field goals this season, with misses coming against Arkansas, LSU, and Tennessee, all over 40 yards.
Cincinnati's kicking situation has been a major issue this season, with three different kickers getting the chance to step up. Given the house money the Bearcats are playing with just by being in the playoff, I expect Fickell to give his offense four downs to work with and go for it anywhere near midfield.
How to bet the game
It's understandable why the total has come down as neither offense should be explosive in this one, and I think it could be lower by kickoff. The Bearcats will play offense with an academy-style approach - just get to third-/fourth-and-short. Meanwhile, the Tide will wear down Cincinnati slowly by racking up a high number of plays.
I bet the Bearcats on the +14 open, and if we see that number return on gameday, I'd recommend betting it again up to a price of -120. Asking Alabama to win by three scores in what I think will be a tightly played contest is a lot.
Like most playoff games of this type, the Tide will likely have a 10-to-17-point lead in the fourth quarter, and it'll come down to a late score to settle the spread. The under will be more comfortable as I doubt both teams can get to 25-plus points since, stylistically, Cincinnati won't let this be a blowout.
Bet: Cincinnati +14 (at -120 or better), under 57.5, Brian Robinson rushing yards over (play up to 110.5)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
