CFB best bets: 7 'dogs worth backing in Week 2

Who doesn't love a good theme? It's a writers' dream, even a betting scribe such as myself. In Week 2 of the college football season, we've got an obvious storyline that threads itself from one game to the next.

Illinois at Virginia (-10, 55)

The more teams you can get a feel for each week, the better. Illinois may be an early candidate for one of these teams as we bob and weave, on or against them. We used them to fade Nebraska in its opener and then played UTSA against the Illini last week. This week, we're once again backing Illinois, getting 10 points in its first road game.

Those of us in the know weren't surprised when UTSA upset the Illini - the Roadrunners are a really good football team - so I won't downgrade them for that loss. But with the market doing so, it creates great value with Virginia favored by too many points.

Pick: Illinois +10

Pittsburgh at Tennessee (+3.5, 57)

Wrong team favored alert! We came through with last week's when we pegged Maryland over West Virginia, and now we shift to an ACC versus SEC game in which Pittsburgh is favored on the road at Tennessee.

I wondered last week how many field goals Pat Narduzzi would need to kick for Pitt to cover a big number against UMass, but it seems even the Panthers can score touchdowns against the Minutemen. I don't know if the turnaround is in full effect, but Tennessee played with an exciting pace under new head coach Josh Heupel. With both teams having a lot to prove, I'll gladly take the points.

Pick: Tennessee +3.5

Miami (OH) at Minnesota (-19.5, 53.5)

Here comes the theme of the week: the sleepy spots. In college football, you've got the games that everyone gets up for, which in turn leads to a letdown the following week - especially when the expectation is an easy win.

Minnesota gave everything it had at home in prime time against Ohio State. A second-half lead faded, and Mohamed Ibrahim went down with a season-ending injury. Now, an early kickoff for the Golden Gophers means far less electricity in the building against a Miami (OH) team better than it looked against Cincinnati. It'll show here.

Pick: Miami (OH) +19.5

Middle Tennessee at No. 19 Virginia Tech (-19, 54)

Unlike Minnesota, Virginia Tech held on to pull a prime-time home upset in Week 1, which came with a week of back-patting. The offense wasn't exactly electric in the victory, and I expect the Hokies to lack sharpness coming off that emotional win. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee will have this game circled on its calendar, as will NC State transfer Bailey Hockman, who's at least familiar with ACC defenses.

Pick: Middle Tennessee +19

Ball State at No. 11 Penn State (-22, 57)

Even Penn State seemed surprised to walk into Camp Randall last week and score a massive conference win at Wisconsin. That's probably because it barely had the ball. The Nittany Lions got a ton of help from Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz, and, in turn, are getting too much credit in the market. We'll give Drew Plitt and Co. a pass for not trouncing Western Illinois in last week's tuneup, as Ball State was likely looking ahead to this game.

Pick: Ball State +22

Toledo at No. 8 Notre Dame (-17, 56)

Notre Dame needed overtime in Tallahassee to survive an inspired Florida State group on Sunday night. Brian Kelly felt like there were areas to improve, but try telling that to a bunch of kids who pulled out a hard-fought victory. The problem is the Irish have just five days between games.

Now, a MAC team comes to take on a national brand. Toledo is looking to make an impression against a big school that's been lauded all week by the locals. The perennially conference-title contending Rockets can put up points, so the Irish better be careful.

Pick: Toledo +17

Hawaii at Oregon State (-11, 64)

Like last week's Utah State overnight win against Washington State to round out a 5-2 showing, let's go back to the Mountain West versus PAC-12 for another upset special. Hawaii got destroyed by UCLA, but the loss is starting to look better already, and I'm actually kind of impressed the Rainbow Warriors did OK against Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Meanwhile, if you're worried about the Oregon State run game, don't be. The Beavers logged 3.1 yards per carry at Purdue and also used two quarterbacks, with neither playing particularly well. Hawaii is set to pull off the big upset.

Pick: Hawaii +11, ML +340

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.