6f:I[29208,["/_next/static/chunks/29-y0ngw68bwg.js","/_next/static/chunks/3f_66gome8pzl.js","/_next/static/chunks/1az--q8pyjgci.js","/_next/static/chunks/32tnr-jz9tz_-.js","/_next/static/chunks/34-cjaw3dot3_.js","/_next/static/chunks/115iaqut4rncm.js","/_next/static/chunks/2tgsh8cxbotfo.js","/_next/static/chunks/1m1x8lh20akmt.js","/_next/static/chunks/07pxib8hf_iee.js"],"default"] 53:T26f4,

We held our heads above water again in last week's Saturday 7. You can't go broke turning an, albeit small, profit. After four straight winning weeks, let's keep things rolling into November.

No. 1 Ohio State @ Rutgers (+18.5, 42.5)

This is the big one for Rutgers. With road games against Michigan and Penn State on the schedule, this is the Scarlet Knights' chance to get the cream of the Big Ten crop at their place this season.

Though Rutgers lost 31-7 at Michigan on Sept. 23 to push as 24-point underdogs, it did well to keep possessions to a minimum - just seven for the Wolverines. However, Michigan's quality overwhelmed the SUNJ. That won't be the case with Ohio State, which ranks far behind its archrival in standard down success rate (SDSR) and EPA/play on both sides of the ball. This 5.5-point difference doesn't do enough to account for the discrepancy in team quality and Big Ten home-field advantage.

We faded the Buckeyes last week versus Wisconsin when they needed to cover a big number on the road. Rutgers has a comparable defense and a better offense than the Badgers, who stayed inside the number throughout the game.

Pick: Rutgers (+18.5)

Arizona State @ No. 18 Utah (-11, 40.5)

Oregon punched some holes in Utah's invincibility at Rice-Eccles Stadium last week and ended the Utes' hopes of getting to the Pac-12 championship without starting quarterback Cam Rising. Moreover, it showed that Utah's offensive explosion against USC was more about the Trojans' defense.

Arizona State's run of covers finally resulted in a win, convincingly over Washington State. The Sun Devils threw for 10.5 yards per pass attempt and ran for 6.0 yards per carry in the contest. That was in keeping with their offensive turnaround after giving Trenton Bourguet the reins at quarterback four games ago. Over that same timeframe, Utah's defensive SDSR has been worse than Arizona State's.

Pick: Arizona State (+11)

No. 9 Oklahoma @ No. 22 Oklahoma State (+6, 61.5)

Show me a team with two starting quarterbacks, and I'll show you one with no starting quarterbacks. It should come as no surprise that, like Arizona State, Oklahoma State has seen better results after finally picking one of its three signal-callers.

It seemed like an upset when the Cowboys beat Kansas State four weeks ago. But three more convincing wins later, and maybe Oklahoma State is simply good. Whereas Oklahoma won the Red River Rivalry versus Texas, potentially tricking the market into thinking it was something more than an upset.

With the Bedlam Series going by the wayside, expect Mike Gundy to have his team - and Stillwater as a whole - riled up in a fervor to send the Sooners to the SEC with a loss.

Pick: Oklahoma State (+6)

Iowa vs. Northwestern (+5, 30.5)

You're not misreading the game total for this one. Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill has an 8.3 QBR, and Brian Ferentz's offense had 11 rushing yards on 28 carries at home against Minnesota. The Hawkeyes spent the bye week firing Ferentz, but the bad news is he's staying on for the rest of the season.

Northwestern's SDSR metrics are in line with the Golden Gophers, who the Wildcats beat before they landed on current starting quarterback Brendan Sullivan. The signal-caller played his best game last week in an upset over Maryland. Look for the Wildcats to score another against anemic Iowa at Wrigley Field.

Pick: Northwestern (+5)

James Madison @ Georgia State (+5.5, 53.5)

Undefeated James Madison still can't play in the postseason, which would be awkward if it finished the campaign without a loss. However, five of the program's seven FBS wins this season came in one-possession games. Also, the Dukes just gave up over 400 yards to Old Dominion, one of the worst offenses in the country.

If there's any vulnerability in James Madison's otherwise impressive defense, Georgia State can expose it. Featuring dual-threat senior Darren Grainger, the Panthers rank just ahead of Texas in EPA/play.

Why is Georgia State home underdogs? A road loss to Georgia Southern last week gave the Panthers their second Sun Belt defeat, so the impression is that they're not in the same class. However, the top tier of the conference is more than just James Madison.

Pick: Georgia State (+5.5)

Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State (-3, 55.5)

I don't think even New Mexico State knows how it lost at Hawaii in Week 4. If the Aggies hadn't blown a 17-3 halftime lead and lost 20-17 on a field goal with no time left, they'd have six straight wins. The betting market also would've taken more notice that Diego Pavia has 11 touchdown passes to just one interception in those six games.

The two home contests in that stretch were easy wins, yet New Mexico State is rated the same as Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have just one FBS win this season, pulling out a victory despite getting outgained at home by 3-6 Louisiana Tech.

Pick: New Mexico State (-3)

No. 19 UCLA @ Arizona (+2.5, 50.5)

Colorado came into the Rose Bowl last Saturday night with their usual must-see TV hullabaloo, which must have been fun for UCLA to dominate the Buffaloes' offensive line. But there are still too many questions about the Bruins' offense. Things like, who's the QB this week?

We know Arizona's quarterback. Freshman Noah Fifita has been awesome since taking over as the starter four games ago, recording 11 touchdowns to three interceptions while averaging 288 yards per game. Make it three upsets in a row for the Wildcats.

Pick: Arizona (+2.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

54:T26f4,

We held our heads above water again in last week's Saturday 7. You can't go broke turning an, albeit small, profit. After four straight winning weeks, let's keep things rolling into November.

No. 1 Ohio State @ Rutgers (+18.5, 42.5)

This is the big one for Rutgers. With road games against Michigan and Penn State on the schedule, this is the Scarlet Knights' chance to get the cream of the Big Ten crop at their place this season.

Pick: Rutgers (+18.5)

Arizona State @ No. 18 Utah (-11, 40.5)

Pick: Arizona State (+11)

No. 9 Oklahoma @ No. 22 Oklahoma State (+6, 61.5)

With the Bedlam Series going by the wayside, expect Mike Gundy to have his team - and Stillwater as a whole - riled up in a fervor to send the Sooners to the SEC with a loss.

Pick: Oklahoma State (+6)

Iowa vs. Northwestern (+5, 30.5)

Pick: Northwestern (+5)

James Madison @ Georgia State (+5.5, 53.5)

Pick: Georgia State (+5.5)

Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State (-3, 55.5)

Pick: New Mexico State (-3)

No. 19 UCLA @ Arizona (+2.5, 50.5)

Pick: Arizona (+2.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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LYNCHBURG, Va. (AP) — Kaidon Salter threw two touchdowns passes and added 160 yards rushing, Quinton Cooley scored three rushing touchdown and Liberty beat Middle Tennessee 42-35 Tuesday night.

Salter was 12-of-20 passing for 140 yards and Cooley had 123 yards rushing on 22 carries for Liberty (7-0, 5-0 Conference USA).

Cooley's third touchdown, a 10-yard run, made it 35-all late in the third quarter and a few plays later Brylan Green forced a fumble that was recovered by Kobe Singleton and gave Liberty possession at its own 42. Salter ran for a 10-yard gain on a third-and-14 but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty gave the Flames a fresh set of downs and, on the ensuing play, threw a 37-yard TD pass to CJ Daniels that capped the scoring with 14:37 to play.

The Middle Tennessee (2-6, 1-3) offense stalled on each of its next two drives before a 12-yard punt gave the Blue Raiders possession at the Liberty 23 with 5:17 to play. One play later, Nicholas Vattiato had pass a pass intercepted by Preston Hodge in the end zone and, after another short punt and a couple Middle Tennessee first downs moved the ball to the 38, Green picked off a fourth-and-8 pass to seal the win.

Vattiato completed 24 of 37 passes for 332 yards and four touchdowns — all to different receivers — but was just 2-of-10 passing for 17 yards with two interceptions in the fourth quarter. Zack Dobson scored on a 2-yard touchdown just before halftime and caught a pop pass at the line of scrimmage, got a block from wide receiver Taharin Sudderth, and raced down the right sideline for a 72-yard TD that gave the Blue Raiders a 35-28 lead 6:10 left in the third.

Liberty, which joined the conference in July, became the first team in history to win its first five C-USA games. First-year coach Jamey Chadwell became the only Flames coach to win each of his first seven games with the team, breaking the record set by Sam Rutigliano, who won his first six games as Liberty head coach in 1989.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

56:T92c,

LYNCHBURG, Va. (AP) — Kaidon Salter threw two touchdowns passes and added 160 yards rushing, Quinton Cooley scored three rushing touchdown and Liberty beat Middle Tennessee 42-35 Tuesday night.

Salter was 12-of-20 passing for 140 yards and Cooley had 123 yards rushing on 22 carries for Liberty (7-0, 5-0 Conference USA).

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

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MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (AP) — Nicholas Vattiato threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and he added a rushing score to help Middle Tennessee ease past Louisiana Tech 31-23 on Tuesday night.

Vattiato connected with Holden Willis for a 60-yard touchdown to put Middle Tennessee ahead 31-16 with 13:47 left in the fourth quarter. The tight end got behind the secondary along the left sideline and he cut across the field around the 35-yard line to reach the end zone.

Louisiana Tech pulled within eight points with 2:30 remaining and Middle Tennessee went three-and-out to give the Bulldogs another shot at it. Louisiana Tech got to midfield but a sack on second down set up a fourth-down incompletion.

Willis finished with four catches for 103 yards and Elijah Metcalf also caught four passes for 59 yards and a score for Middle Tennessee (2-5, 1-2 Conference USA). Jaiden Credle matched Vattiato with 13 carries. Credle finished with 65 yards and a touchdown.

Tra Fluellen made an interception in the end zone to end Louisiana Tech’s first possession of the second half. MTSU responded with an 11-play, 80-yard drive ending in a 9-yard touchdown run by Credle.

Hank Bachmeier and Jack Turner combined for 30-of-47 passing for 340 yards with two touchdowns and one interception for Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2).

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

58:T6d4,

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (AP) — Nicholas Vattiato threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and he added a rushing score to help Middle Tennessee ease past Louisiana Tech 31-23 on Tuesday night.

Hank Bachmeier and Jack Turner combined for 30-of-47 passing for 340 yards with two touchdowns and one interception for Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2).

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

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MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (AP) — Backup Zion Webb threw for two touchdowns and he ran for 101 yards and a score to help Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee 45-30 on Wednesday night.

Jacksonville State trailed 23-7 after the Blue Raiders scored on three straight drives in the second quarter. But the Gamecocks scored 38 unanswered points in the second half.

Kamari Stephens made Jacksonville State's seventh sack, on a fourth-and-5 play at the Gamecocks' 14-yard line, with 4:12 remaining in the fourth. Stephens added a forced fumble on Middle Tennessee's next possession and Curley Young picked it up and raced for a 26-yard touchdown to make it 45-23.

The Jacksonville State defense forced four turnovers, including two interceptions, but still allowed 563 yards.

Malik Jackson and J’Wan Evans added rushing touchdowns for Jacksonville State (5-1, 3-0 Conference USA), which is in the second year of an FCS-FBS transition. Starter Logan Smothers was 5-of-10 passing with an interception on Jacksonville’s first possession of the game. Webb was 11 of 21 for 186 yards.

Nicholas Vattiato threw for 408 yards and two touchdowns for Middle Tennessee (1-5, 0-2). Justin Olson had nine catches for 124 yards, and Elijah Metcalf had touchdown receptions of 71 and 19 yards.

Middle Tennessee receiver Kellen Stewart was carted off the field midway through the second quarter after taking a hard hit.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

5a:T6e9,

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (AP) — Backup Zion Webb threw for two touchdowns and he ran for 101 yards and a score to help Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee 45-30 on Wednesday night.

Jacksonville State trailed 23-7 after the Blue Raiders scored on three straight drives in the second quarter. But the Gamecocks scored 38 unanswered points in the second half.

The Jacksonville State defense forced four turnovers, including two interceptions, but still allowed 563 yards.

Nicholas Vattiato threw for 408 yards and two touchdowns for Middle Tennessee (1-5, 0-2). Justin Olson had nine catches for 124 yards, and Elijah Metcalf had touchdown receptions of 71 and 19 yards.

Middle Tennessee receiver Kellen Stewart was carted off the field midway through the second quarter after taking a hard hit.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) — Jalen Milroe threw three long touchdown passes and ran for a pair of scores to lead No. 4 Alabama to a 56-7 season-opening victory over Middle Tennessee State on Saturday night.

Milroe emerged on top of a three-man battle to replace Bryce Young in fall camp for the Crimson Tide, and delivered big plays and no costly mistakes in his second career start. He launched on-target touchdown passes of 47 yards to Isaiah Bond, 48 to Jermaine Burton and 29 to Amari Niblack.

“I think he’s more confident, doing a good job in the passing game,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said. “His athleticism helps him. He scored a touchdown on a fumbled snap, which wasn’t his fault.”

A much bigger challenge awaits Alabama with a visit from No. 11 Texas. The Tide gets a better chance to demonstrate its championship mettle after uncustomarilly dropping two regular-season games a year ago. But Milroe easily passed his first test.

He showcased his running ability in turning a bad snap into a 21-yard touchdown on his opening drive. Milroe had to go back and scoop it up after the ball basically rolled past him, then he raced to the right sideline. He put his left hand on the ground to keep his balance and make a final cut at about the 7.

Touchdown, Milroe. The first of his five total in a 13-of-18, 193-yard effort. He also ran for 48 yards before handing the offensive reins to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner midway through the third quarter. Ty Simpson was also competing for the job.

Both the backups ran for touchdowns.

Milroe's only previous start came last season against Texas A&M, when Young was hurt.

“I think the players kind of delivered,” Saban said. “They had good energy and enthusiasm to start the game, so I was really happy with the way we came out and played in this game. They kind of answered the bell the way we wanted them to.”

But he wasn't about to offer a prediction on how Milroe could build on this performance against Texas.

“This is a Coke bottle,” Saban said, picking up a bottle from his podium. “It’s not a crystal ball.”

THE TAKEAWAY

Middle Tennessee: Made a reported $1.6 million from the game and did manage a touchdown late in the third quarter. Nicholas Vattiato was 21-of-32 passing for 127 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Couldn't come close to a Top 25 upset for the second straight year after beating No. 25 Miami last season.

Alabama: Showed the offense remains in good hands with Milroe at quarterback, even though the QB situation may not be truly settled until a big game against No. 11 Texas. A defense replacing Will Anderson pitched a shutout.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

If there are any for Alabama, it will be based more on what happens in the game between No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State on Sunday than on the Tide's performance in an opening blowout.

TARGETING

Middle Tennessee lost starting cornerback Deonte Stanley before the defense even took the field. Stanley was called for targeting on punt returner Kool-Aid McKinstry after the Blue Raiders' opening series.

STREAKING

Alabama won its 22nd home opener in a row, its 21st straight at Bryant-Denny Stadium its 57th consecutive nonconference regular-season game.

UP NEXT

Middle Tennessee: At Missouri next Saturday,

Alabama: Hosts No. 11 Texas next Saturday.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

5c:T101d,

Both the backups ran for touchdowns.

Milroe's only previous start came last season against Texas A&M, when Young was hurt.

But he wasn't about to offer a prediction on how Milroe could build on this performance against Texas.

“This is a Coke bottle,” Saban said, picking up a bottle from his podium. “It’s not a crystal ball.”

THE TAKEAWAY

POLL IMPLICATIONS

If there are any for Alabama, it will be based more on what happens in the game between No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State on Sunday than on the Tide's performance in an opening blowout.

TARGETING

STREAKING

Alabama won its 22nd home opener in a row, its 21st straight at Bryant-Denny Stadium its 57th consecutive nonconference regular-season game.

UP NEXT

Middle Tennessee: At Missouri next Saturday,

Alabama: Hosts No. 11 Texas next Saturday.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

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It's mid-August, and you've run out of football-themed TV to binge. You've done "Friday Night Lights" for the 13th time, all variations of "Last Chance U," and maybe even succumbed to "Titletown High." You need real football to start like air to breathe.

College football kicks off with Week 0 soon enough. But of the 133 teams at the FBS level, not everyone has championship aspirations - national or conference. For most college athletes - especially after a couple of early season losses - a successful campaign will be defined by whether they get to go on a fun trip at the end of the year.

If you slacked on college football prep, opting instead to drown in Netflix football-adjacent content, the good news is oddsmakers are telling us who - via their regular-season win totals - should be hoping just to make a bowl game.

Low-total teams probably won't be good enough to fight for their right to party, while those lined at 8-plus should get to six wins before mid-November. However, there exists a qualitative desire to get to six victories, followed by team-wide relief once a program becomes bowl eligible.

Let's look at the FBS programs with win totals lined around six and the price on a corresponding bet if they accomplish that goal.

The bowl-eligibility bubble

TEAM	WIN TOTAL	BET (ODDS)	LAST GAME
Appalachian St.	6.5	Under (+110)	Georgia Southern^
Arizona	5.5	Over (+110)	@Arizona St.*
Army	5.5	Over (-150)	Navy*
Boston College	5.5	Over (-120)	Miami
Buffalo	6.5	Under (-140)	Eastern Michigan
BYU	5.5	Over (-120)	@Oklahoma St.~
UCF	6.5	Under (+145)	Houston
Central Michigan	5.5	Over (+130)	Toledo
Cincinnati	5.5	Over (+130)	Kansas~
Duke	6.5	Under (-150)	Pittsburgh^
East Carolina	5.5	Over (-110)	Tulsa
Florida	5.5	Over (-130)	Florida St.*
Georgia Southern	6.5	Under (-140)	@Appalachian St.^
Georgia St.	5.5	Over (+150)	@Old Dominion
Illinois	6.5	Under (-105)	Northwestern*
Kansas	6.5	Under (-150)	@Cincinnati~
Kentucky	6.5	Under (+150)	@Louisville*
Louisiana Tech	5.5	Over (-170)	@Jacksonville St.~
Miami (OH)	6.5	Under (+150)	@Ball State
Michigan St.	5.5	Over (+150)	Penn State
Middle Tennessee	6.5	Under (-115)	@Sam Houston~
Minnesota	6.5	Under (+130)	Wisconsin*
Mississippi St.	6.5	Under (-165)	Ole Miss*
Missouri	6.5	Under (-130)	@Arkansas*
Navy	6.5	Under (-140)	Army*
Nebraska	6.5	Under (-130)	Iowa*
North Carolina St.	6.5	Under (+130)	North Carolina*
North Texas	6.5	Under (-180)	UAB~
Northern Illinois	5.5	Over (-150)	@Kent St.
Oklahoma St.	6.5	Under (-110)	BYU~
Pittsburgh	6.5	Under (+160)	@Duke^
Purdue	5.5	Over (+130)	Indiana*
San Diego St.	6.5	Under (-140)	Fresno St.
San Jose St.	5.5	Over (-155)	@UNLV^
South Carolina	6.5	Under (-160)	Clemson*
Southern Miss	5.5	Over (+130)	Troy
Syracuse	6.5	Under (-160)	Wake Forest^
Temple	5.5	Over (-105)	Memphis
UAB	5.5	Over (+170)	@North Texas~
UNLV	5.5	Over (-160)	San Jose St.^
Utah St.	5.5	Over (+140)	@New Mexico
UTEP	5.5	Over (-130)	Liberty
Virginia Tech	5.5	Over (+110)	@Virginia*
Wake Forest	6.5	Under (-140)	@Syracuse^
Washington St.	6.5	Under (-150)	Washington*
Wyoming	6.5	Under (-140)	@Nevada

* From this list of 46 teams, we'll cut the programs whose final game comes against their biggest rival. The thinking is that if a team is already at six wins, a season finale against their rival will keep their attention and motivate them for that seventh W.

For the teams lined at 5.5 and dying for a sixth win, they'll have to play their season finales against a rival who'll want nothing more than to ruin their bowl chances. For example, there's more at stake in the Army-Navy game than just bowl eligibility. Elsewhere, you know a six-win Minnesota team is still going hard after Paul Bunyan's Axe against Wisconsin.

^ We'll cut teams on this list that face each other in the finale. If Appalachian State and Georgia Southern both accomplish their goal of six wins, even if they're both disinterested in a regular-season finale, by rule, one of them still has to win.

~ Some teams from our list meet in their last games, but it sets up for one school to care and the other to have potentially already secured its spot in the postseason. BYU may be going to Stillwater with five wins to take on Oklahoma State, who could already have six. That's a great situation to back the Cougars in the contest and makes it that much more likely we cash both tickets. Of note, FBS newcomers Jacksonville State and Sam Houston aren't eligible for postseason play, so they'll be fully engaged in their final game regardless of their record. That's enough to remove Louisiana Tech from our card but helps our chances for a Middle Tennessee under.

Win total bets

With these three factors applied, here are the win total bets we're left with:

TEAM	BET
Boston College	Over 5.5 (-120)
Buffalo	Under 6.5 (-140)
BYU	Over 5.5 (-120)
UCF	Under 6.5 (+145)
Central Michigan	Over 5.5 (+130)
Cincinnati	Over 5.5 (+130)
East Carolina	Over 5.5 (-110)
Georgia St.	Over 5.5 (+150)
Kansas	Under 6.5 (-150)
Miami (OH)	Under 6.5 (+150)
Michigan St.	Over 5.5 (+150)
Middle Tennessee	Under 6.5 (-115)
Northern Illinois	Over 5.5 (-150)
Oklahoma St.	Under 6.5 (-110)
San Diego St.	Under 6.5 (-140)
Southern Miss	Over 5.5 (+130)
Temple	Over 5.5 (-105)
Utah St.	Over 5.5 (+140)
UTEP	Over 5.5 (-130)
Wyoming	Under 6.5 (-140)

Regular-season win totals are set based on the cumulative win probability of each team's games relative to the oddsmakers' rating. However, the value of the above bets is found in the incalculable elements of late-season focus, preparation, and desire by college athletes to win a game that may seem otherwise meaningless. All these teams would be thrilled with a bowl berth.

Without knowing anything more about them, we used market information and a glance at their late-season schedule to create win total bets on 15% of FBS teams that have value beyond how they're being rated.

This means you can go back to thinking about whether Tim Riggins and Tyra Collette will ever make it work. But now you can do it with a handful of tickets to sweat this coming season.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

5e:T2a3f,

Let's look at the FBS programs with win totals lined around six and the price on a corresponding bet if they accomplish that goal.

The bowl-eligibility bubble

TEAM	WIN TOTAL	BET (ODDS)	LAST GAME
Appalachian St.	6.5	Under (+110)	Georgia Southern^
Arizona	5.5	Over (+110)	@Arizona St.*
Army	5.5	Over (-150)	Navy*
Boston College	5.5	Over (-120)	Miami
Buffalo	6.5	Under (-140)	Eastern Michigan
BYU	5.5	Over (-120)	@Oklahoma St.~
UCF	6.5	Under (+145)	Houston
Central Michigan	5.5	Over (+130)	Toledo
Cincinnati	5.5	Over (+130)	Kansas~
Duke	6.5	Under (-150)	Pittsburgh^
East Carolina	5.5	Over (-110)	Tulsa
Florida	5.5	Over (-130)	Florida St.*
Georgia Southern	6.5	Under (-140)	@Appalachian St.^
Georgia St.	5.5	Over (+150)	@Old Dominion
Illinois	6.5	Under (-105)	Northwestern*
Kansas	6.5	Under (-150)	@Cincinnati~
Kentucky	6.5	Under (+150)	@Louisville*
Louisiana Tech	5.5	Over (-170)	@Jacksonville St.~
Miami (OH)	6.5	Under (+150)	@Ball State
Michigan St.	5.5	Over (+150)	Penn State
Middle Tennessee	6.5	Under (-115)	@Sam Houston~
Minnesota	6.5	Under (+130)	Wisconsin*
Mississippi St.	6.5	Under (-165)	Ole Miss*
Missouri	6.5	Under (-130)	@Arkansas*
Navy	6.5	Under (-140)	Army*
Nebraska	6.5	Under (-130)	Iowa*
North Carolina St.	6.5	Under (+130)	North Carolina*
North Texas	6.5	Under (-180)	UAB~
Northern Illinois	5.5	Over (-150)	@Kent St.
Oklahoma St.	6.5	Under (-110)	BYU~
Pittsburgh	6.5	Under (+160)	@Duke^
Purdue	5.5	Over (+130)	Indiana*
San Diego St.	6.5	Under (-140)	Fresno St.
San Jose St.	5.5	Over (-155)	@UNLV^
South Carolina	6.5	Under (-160)	Clemson*
Southern Miss	5.5	Over (+130)	Troy
Syracuse	6.5	Under (-160)	Wake Forest^
Temple	5.5	Over (-105)	Memphis
UAB	5.5	Over (+170)	@North Texas~
UNLV	5.5	Over (-160)	San Jose St.^
Utah St.	5.5	Over (+140)	@New Mexico
UTEP	5.5	Over (-130)	Liberty
Virginia Tech	5.5	Over (+110)	@Virginia*
Wake Forest	6.5	Under (-140)	@Syracuse^
Washington St.	6.5	Under (-150)	Washington*
Wyoming	6.5	Under (-140)	@Nevada

Win total bets

With these three factors applied, here are the win total bets we're left with:

TEAM	BET
Boston College	Over 5.5 (-120)
Buffalo	Under 6.5 (-140)
BYU	Over 5.5 (-120)
UCF	Under 6.5 (+145)
Central Michigan	Over 5.5 (+130)
Cincinnati	Over 5.5 (+130)
East Carolina	Over 5.5 (-110)
Georgia St.	Over 5.5 (+150)
Kansas	Under 6.5 (-150)
Miami (OH)	Under 6.5 (+150)
Michigan St.	Over 5.5 (+150)
Middle Tennessee	Under 6.5 (-115)
Northern Illinois	Over 5.5 (-150)
Oklahoma St.	Under 6.5 (-110)
San Diego St.	Under 6.5 (-140)
Southern Miss	Over 5.5 (+130)
Temple	Over 5.5 (-105)
Utah St.	Over 5.5 (+140)
UTEP	Over 5.5 (-130)
Wyoming	Under 6.5 (-140)

This means you can go back to thinking about whether Tim Riggins and Tyra Collette will ever make it work. But now you can do it with a handful of tickets to sweat this coming season.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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The top teams that were proud members of the Group of 5 conferences in 2022 have accomplished their off-the-field goal - to no longer be a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision's bottom half.

Houston, Central Florida, and Cincinnati - teams that accomplished the big on-field goal of making the New Year's Six - found their way into the Big 12. That's left other teams salivating at the chance to get adopted into the burning wreckage of the Pac-12. With no clear favorite left among those hoping for a New Year's Six berth, each G5 conference feels as wide open as ever.

Along with their conference odds, we'll include estimated market ratings to give context to where each team stands nationally.

American Athletic Conference odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Tulane	+200	68
SMU	+350	64
UTSA	+450	57
Florida Atlantic	+600	52
Memphis	+700	52
Navy	+3000	48
Temple	+2500	41
North Texas	+4000	45
East Carolina	+5000	40
South Florida	+5000	31
UAB	+6000	39
Tulsa	+6000	35
Rice	+7500	35
Charlotte	+15000	21

Memphis (7.5, -150) has a slightly higher win total projection than Florida Atlantic (7.5 at +125), but the Tigers' schedule is so easy that their rating has to be pulled down. This is confirmed by the fact they're the fifth choice to win the AAC despite having the third-highest regular-season win total.

Best bets

Florida Atlantic: Over 7.5 wins (+125)
Temple: Over 5.5 wins (-105)
UAB: Under 5 wins (-120)

There's no singular type of 'new coach/new school' situation in college football.

One good version, like in Boca Raton, occurs when a solid FBS coach with a strong track record of success takes over a program with a solid base of returning talent. Tom Herman didn't reach the lofty expectations of Longhorn nation, but he'll bring energy to FAU as an upgrade on Willie Taggert.

Another version is when a head coach steps up in weight class and has to rebuild the talent pool while filling big shoes. Thanks to his name, Trent Dilfer makes the rare jump from high school to FBS head coach. But he didn't bring experienced coordinators with him. It would be shocking if he were an upgrade from Bill Clark, who took UAB to five bowl games in nine years.

Stan Drayton was a surprising hire at Temple before last season, and a 3-9 record in 2022 doesn't usually inspire optimism. However, the Owls eventually gave E.J. Warner (son of Kurt) free reign to cook and moved their best athlete, D'Wan Mathis, from quarterback to wide receiver. They've got two wins in their non-conference schedule, and their four road conference games come against the bottom half of the American. Even if there isn't an upset as a home underdog looming, Temple can get to bowl eligibility.

Conference USA odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Western Kentucky	+130	49
Liberty	+250	50
Middle Tennessee	+700	41
UTEP	+900	39
Louisiana Tech	+900	37
New Mexico St.	+1500	34
Florida International	+7500	24
Jacksonville St.	N/A	34
Sam Houston St.	N/A	27

Western Kentucky is the favorite, but Liberty has a higher season win total. That's a function of the Hilltoppers having a date with Ohio State, while the Flames don't face a Power 5 team of any kind. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State make their FBS debuts and, as a result, aren't eligible for postseason play.

Best bet

Liberty over 9 wins (-110)

Jamey Chadwell comes over from Coastal Carolina to replace Hugh Freeze. Still, any adjustment for Liberty should be felt by its opponents with how tricky the coach's offense can be, especially if Kaidon Salter is ready to be the unquestioned starter in his second season of play. With a soft non-conference schedule, there isn't a game on the slate the Flames can't win. They'll be slight underdogs when they visit Western Kentucky, so we'll pass on a conference-winning futures ticket, opting for the win total over instead.

Mid-American Conference odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Toledo	+175	54
Ohio	+275	45
Buffalo	+700	44
Miami (OH)	+800	43
Eastern Michigan	+900	44
Central Michigan	+1600	37
Ball St.	+3500	35
Akron	+4000	27
Bowling Green	+5000	34
Western Michigan	+5000	27
Kent St.	+15000	18

Eastern Michigan's toughest non-conference game is against Minnesota, and it doesn't play Ohio, so its win total of 6.5 (-170 to the over) is less impressive than similarly lined teams Buffalo and Miami (OH).

Best Bet

Central Michigan to win MAC (+1600)

While the MAC might not be the worst conference this season, it should still be as volatile as ever. We're looking to back top-end raw talent in the lower leagues - where the favorites are vulnerable week-to-week. Central Michigan has that in quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. The Chippewas offense took a step back last year until Emanuel burst onto the scene with 466 rushing yards in the season's final three games. The schedule is tough - with three Power 5 losses coming in the non-conference - but when looking for a longshot in the MAC, the Chips fit the bill as having a high ceiling.

Mountain West odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Boise St.	+185	58
Fresno St.	+375	51
Air Force	+400	56
San Diego St.	+700	49
Wyoming	+1200	45
San Jose St.	+1500	43
Colorado St.	+1800	36
UNLV	+2000	43
Utah St.	+4000	34
Nevada	+5000	28
New Mexico	+10000	25
Hawaii	+10000	25

The quality of the Mountain West has plummeted from even a few years ago, as it's barely ahead of the MAC in top-to-bottom quality. San Diego State is just -3 as the host in their Week 0 matchup with Ohio, showing that the matchup is closer than we might've thought.

Best Bet

Hawaii: Under 3.5 wins (-105)

Whether it's their Week 0 game as 18-point underdogs at Vanderbilt or Week 1's line of Stanford -9, both spreads suggest that Hawaii is worse than their rating of 25. If that's the case, then taking them under on 3.5 regular-season victories should be an easy winner. A look at the Rainbow Warriors' schedule doesn't dissuade, as they're on the road for potentially winnable games with New Mexico and Nevada.

Sun Belt odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
South Alabama	+275	61
Troy	+300	61
James Madison	N/A	60
Coastal Carolina	+500	57
Appalachian St.	+650	53
Marshall	+800	54
Louisiana	+1000	54
Georgia Southern	+1600	49
Georgia State	+2500	40
Southern Miss	+2500	37
Texas St.	+6000	32
Arkansas St.	+7500	32
Louisiana-Monroe	+20000	27

While the Sun Belt's place here is alphabetical, we can make the case that we've saved the best for last, as half the league rates above average. That said, market analysis is about information, and eight Sun Belt teams don't play FBS games until Week 2. That means we don't have spread-centric data points to hone these ratings further.

Best bet

Arkansas State: Under 4.5 wins (+100)

Call this a bet against the Butch Jones regime, but it's more about the rest of the Sun Belt constantly improving. And it's hard to see that with Arkansas State. There might be two wins available in games with Stony Brook and UMass. However, the Red Wolves need to beat Southern Miss, Texas State, and Louisiana-Monroe on the road to go over on an otherwise tough schedule. For a team that appears to lack upside - no new defensive coordinator and a shaky quarterback situation - we'll rely on the best G5 conference to keep Arkansas State down.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

60:T3a0f,

The top teams that were proud members of the Group of 5 conferences in 2022 have accomplished their off-the-field goal - to no longer be a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision's bottom half.

Along with their conference odds, we'll include estimated market ratings to give context to where each team stands nationally.

American Athletic Conference odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Tulane	+200	68
SMU	+350	64
UTSA	+450	57
Florida Atlantic	+600	52
Memphis	+700	52
Navy	+3000	48
Temple	+2500	41
North Texas	+4000	45
East Carolina	+5000	40
South Florida	+5000	31
UAB	+6000	39
Tulsa	+6000	35
Rice	+7500	35
Charlotte	+15000	21

Best bets

Florida Atlantic: Over 7.5 wins (+125)
Temple: Over 5.5 wins (-105)
UAB: Under 5 wins (-120)

There's no singular type of 'new coach/new school' situation in college football.

Conference USA odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Western Kentucky	+130	49
Liberty	+250	50
Middle Tennessee	+700	41
UTEP	+900	39
Louisiana Tech	+900	37
New Mexico St.	+1500	34
Florida International	+7500	24
Jacksonville St.	N/A	34
Sam Houston St.	N/A	27

Best bet

Liberty over 9 wins (-110)

Mid-American Conference odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Toledo	+175	54
Ohio	+275	45
Buffalo	+700	44
Miami (OH)	+800	43
Eastern Michigan	+900	44
Central Michigan	+1600	37
Ball St.	+3500	35
Akron	+4000	27
Bowling Green	+5000	34
Western Michigan	+5000	27
Kent St.	+15000	18

Best Bet

Central Michigan to win MAC (+1600)

Mountain West odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
Boise St.	+185	58
Fresno St.	+375	51
Air Force	+400	56
San Diego St.	+700	49
Wyoming	+1200	45
San Jose St.	+1500	43
Colorado St.	+1800	36
UNLV	+2000	43
Utah St.	+4000	34
Nevada	+5000	28
New Mexico	+10000	25
Hawaii	+10000	25

Best Bet

Hawaii: Under 3.5 wins (-105)

Sun Belt odds

TEAM	ODDS	RATING
South Alabama	+275	61
Troy	+300	61
James Madison	N/A	60
Coastal Carolina	+500	57
Appalachian St.	+650	53
Marshall	+800	54
Louisiana	+1000	54
Georgia Southern	+1600	49
Georgia State	+2500	40
Southern Miss	+2500	37
Texas St.	+6000	32
Arkansas St.	+7500	32
Louisiana-Monroe	+20000	27

Best bet

Arkansas State: Under 4.5 wins (+100)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Longtime college football fans are used to realignment. The Big 8 became the Big 12 only to have the SEC pillage a pair of its teams twice in just over a decade. The Big East outright dissolved. There's an almost annual switcheroo or two in the lower end of D-I football with leagues like the Mountain West, Sun Belt, American Athletic Conference, and Conference USA expanding or contracting.

This offseason has seen more than its fair share of movement, and it's just the beginning as we await USC and UCLA's uncomfortable moves to the Big Ten. Conference USA added new Football Bowl Subdivision teams after losing teams to the American. The Big-12 snapped up some teams from the American to skip past its advertised number of 12 teams, going from 10 to 14. With many teams having new schedules, evaluations will be trickier.

Earlier this offseason, we looked at the professional ranks, taking the win totals in both the NFC and AFC to determine where each team was rated in the betting market. These ratings act as a springboard for creating point spreads and finding value - from season win totals to game-to-game betting.

The college football schedule is far fairer than the NFL's calendar. The main reason for that is the drastic difference in the quality of the 10 total conferences that make up the "league" that is the FBS.

Even if you've never seen a college football game, tallying up the projected win totals for each conference provides a decent ranking of the conferences. With 12 games per team, if we take the total projected wins for a conference and divide them by its number of teams, we get a hint of how each individual league ranks before we've even kicked a game off.

To be even more specific, we'll convert a team total like LSU's under-9.5 wins at -140 to 9.05 projected wins - a fair number with balanced -110/-110 odds.

CONFERENCE (Teams)	TOTAL WINS	PER TEAM
SEC (14)	102.3	7.31
Big Ten (14)	97.2	6.95
BIG 12 (14)	93.9	6.71
ACC (14)	93.2	6.65
PAC-12 (12)	79.9	6.64
American (14)	85.1	6.08
Sun Belt (14)	84.6	6.04
Conference USA (9)	52.9	5.88
Mountain West (12)	70.4	5.87
MAC (12)	67.4	5.62

Conferences are rated based on how their teams are expected to fare in non-conference games. How many games a team plays against lower-level Football Championship Series teams can complicate this. We're looking at you, SEC.

Alabama has Chattanooga on its schedule as a virtual bye week and plays only eight conference games. Meanwhile, USC won't meet any FCS opponents but will play nine games within the Pac-12. The Trojans' weakest opponent might be San Jose State. While they're 31-point favorites in Week 1, that doesn't quite compare to the Crimson Tide's mark as 50-plus-point favorites against the Moccasins. Bama is also a 38-point favorite in Week 1 against Middle Tennessee.

Speaking of San Jose State, it's lined at 5.5 wins despite not coming remotely close to matching the quality of a squad like Florida - which also carries a 5.5-win team total. The quality of their opponents and, by association, their conference shape those numbers.

Unfortunately, you can't just equally boost every team by its conference rating. Just take a look at the defending champion Georgia's schedule for 2023. Despite playing out of the top conference in the country, its schedule isn't exactly filled with landmines. One of the best parts about being Georgia is that you don't have to play Georgia, and therefore your SEC schedule isn't as hard as others'. For example, Vanderbilt has a 3.5-win total, which is lower because it doesn't get to play itself but does have to face Georgia.

In the MAC, Western Michigan has a 3.5-win total, but it'll be massive underdogs to mid-tier SEC team Mississippi State and would be getting a couple of scores from Vandy if they played.

So how do we make up the stagger when it comes to teams in different conferences with the same win total? Like most other handicapping angles, we take educated guesses on how teams are boosted or dropped by who they play.

With a tough SEC slate, Vanderbilt's 3.5 wins could be around 25% higher with an average schedule strength, making it good enough to be a five-win team nationally. In comparison, Western Michigan's total would be even lower than 3.5 if playing in the MAC didn't afford it more winnable games than playing a random selection of the other 133 FBS teams.

Of the 67.4 projected wins for MAC teams, 48 are guaranteed to come in conference, meaning 19.4 wins will need to come in 48 non-conference matchups. That .404 projected win percentage means the Broncos might be lucky to win three games if they played an average schedule, as they've also padded their slate with a game against St. Francis of the FCS.

As we prepare for another college football season, don't equate projected win totals to team quality. Make sure you know how hard a team's slate is before assigning it a rating.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

62:T1cef,

To be even more specific, we'll convert a team total like LSU's under-9.5 wins at -140 to 9.05 projected wins - a fair number with balanced -110/-110 odds.

CONFERENCE (Teams)	TOTAL WINS	PER TEAM
SEC (14)	102.3	7.31
Big Ten (14)	97.2	6.95
BIG 12 (14)	93.9	6.71
ACC (14)	93.2	6.65
PAC-12 (12)	79.9	6.64
American (14)	85.1	6.08
Sun Belt (14)	84.6	6.04
Conference USA (9)	52.9	5.88
Mountain West (12)	70.4	5.87
MAC (12)	67.4	5.62

In the MAC, Western Michigan has a 3.5-win total, but it'll be massive underdogs to mid-tier SEC team Mississippi State and would be getting a couple of scores from Vandy if they played.

As we prepare for another college football season, don't equate projected win totals to team quality. Make sure you know how hard a team's slate is before assigning it a rating.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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HONOLULU (AP) — Zeke Rankin kicked four field goals, including a 37-yarder for the go-ahead score with 2:05 left, and Middle Tennessee State beat San Diego State 25-23 in the Hawaii Bowl on Saturday night.

The Blue Raiders (8-5) overcome a 14-0 first-quarter deficit to turn back the Aztecs (7-6) in a game that featured six lead changes.

Rankin converted four of his five field goal attempts to tie the Hawaii Bowl record for field goals. He made kicks from 44, 49, 26 and 37 yards and missed from 42.

San Diego State took a 23-22 lead with 5:43 to play on a 52-yard field goal by Jack Browning, but Middle Tennessee State drove 55 yards in 12 plays, capped by Rankin’s 37-yard field goal to put his team ahead for good.

Middle Tennessee State finished with 170 yards of total offense to 364 total yards for San Diego State.

The Blue Raiders won despite allowing seven sacks and being held to minus-61 yards rushing.

San Diego State led 14-13 at halftime.

It was the first meeting between the schools.

THE TAKEAWAY

Middle Tennessee State: After being picked by league media to finish eighth (out of 11 teams) in the C-USA preseason poll, the Blue Raiders finished the season out in a strong way by winning their final four games, capped off by their sixth bowl in eight seasons and 10th overall in 17 seasons under coach Rick Stockstill.

San Diego State: The Aztecs were projected by Mountain West media to finish second in the West Division behind Fresno State. Their season saw personnel changes at offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and quarterback, which helped to spur five wins in seven games following a 2-3 start to the year.

UP NEXT

Middle Tennessee State will visit Bryant-Denny Stadium for its first game against Alabama since 2015 on Sept. 2. The Blue Raiders have lost all three of their previous meetings against the Crimson Tide.

San Diego State opens at home against Idaho State on Aug. 26 before back-to-back Pac-12 opponents in UCLA and Oregon State on Sept. 9 and 16, respectively.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/ap_top25. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://tinyurl.com/mrxhe6f2

64:T947,

The Blue Raiders (8-5) overcome a 14-0 first-quarter deficit to turn back the Aztecs (7-6) in a game that featured six lead changes.

Rankin converted four of his five field goal attempts to tie the Hawaii Bowl record for field goals. He made kicks from 44, 49, 26 and 37 yards and missed from 42.

Middle Tennessee State finished with 170 yards of total offense to 364 total yards for San Diego State.

The Blue Raiders won despite allowing seven sacks and being held to minus-61 yards rushing.

San Diego State led 14-13 at halftime.

It was the first meeting between the schools.

THE TAKEAWAY

UP NEXT

San Diego State opens at home against Idaho State on Aug. 26 before back-to-back Pac-12 opponents in UCLA and Oregon State on Sept. 9 and 16, respectively.

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/ap_top25. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://tinyurl.com/mrxhe6f2

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The opening weekend of bowl season had mixed results when it came to wild swings in point spreads leading up to the various kickoffs.

We saw money come in on UTSA (flipping the favorite) as it closed -3 against Troy, only to lose outright.

On Saturday, after an original move from Oregon State -6.5 to -10, Florida took money the day of the Las Vegas Bowl. That didn't work out, as the Beavers embarrassed the Gators.

The constant movement from Washington State as a 4.5-point favorite to Fresno State as almost a touchdown favorite in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl proved to be on the money. The onetime underdog Bulldogs turned out to be more live than the game's namesake's show.

The opposite was true for both SMU - which extended to a big favorite and lost outright to BYU - and Boise State, which went from -7 to -11 but only won by three.

The big question is: What should we make of line moves from now until Christmas?

Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo (-4, 53.5)

When this line was Toledo -1, a bet on the Rockets was a good idea. Now that it's extended over a field goal, things have gone too far.

Liberty finished the season in turmoil as head coach Hugh Freeze had his bags packed for Auburn, which probably resulted in the Flames' three straight losses to finish the regular season. However, this is still a team that beat Arkansas and BYU before that, and now it has some direction with the hiring of Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell.

While there's a handful of opt-outs on the Liberty side, the program isn't falling apart. The Flames contained mobile quarterbacks in KJ Jefferson and Jaren Hall in games where they weren't the more talented team, so they should be able to keep it close with DeQuan Finn and Toledo. You'll be hard-pressed to talk me into any MAC team giving points this holiday season.

Pick: Liberty +4

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor (-5.5, 47.5)

While many of the other bowls have seen wild point-spread swings, the Armed Forces Bowl has been less dramatic. Baylor opened at -6.5 and the line has ticked down to -5.5.

It will need to drop further for me to advise against a wager on Air Force. The academy schools are always a good bet in a bowl game, and the Falcons can salvage a disappointing season with a win over a team from a Power 5 conference. Their only game against the upper echelon of college football barely counts as notable given that they faced Colorado.

Normally, we'd be concerned about Baylor's defense, but we just watched it give up over 30 points per game in the Big 12 this season. The Bears went to a New Year's Six bowl game after winning the conference last season, and we're supposed to believe they're fired up to defend the Falcons' hybrid-option offense in a third-tier bowl? In fact, if you wanted to put together a round-robin underdog moneyline parlay (five teams, in combinations of three), Air Force would be a good start:

TEAMS	ODDS
Liberty/Air Force/Texas Tech/Washington/Pittsburgh	+12300

Pick: Air Force +5.5

Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston (-7, 57.5)

The fact that we gave a measly 5 points to Houston, a 7-point favorite, in our Bowl Confidence Pool rankings tells you all you need to know about how much we trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game. The Cougars head coach has shown he cares very little about second-tier bowl games, while Louisiana gets a chance to level up in the first year of a new era for the Ragin' Cajuns.

I'm not sure Louisiana has the talent to win the game outright, but if Houston really doesn't care, and the Cougars' layoff disrupts the rhythm of their Air Raid offense, then maybe the Sun Belt squad can pull off an upset. Either way, now that the line has gone from -3 on open to the next key number of -7, we'll fade the big move.

Pick: Louisiana +7

Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State (-7, 49.5)

Speaking of big moves, San Diego State has gone up from -1.5 to -7, and in this case, that might be correct.

Middle Tennessee's involvement in a bowl game, and its season as a whole, is more an indictment of Miami than anything else. The Blue Raiders beat the Hurricanes for their best win of the year, with their next impressive victory coming against UTEP.

Can San Diego State stretch out a margin against Middle Tennessee? The Aztecs realized that Braxton Burmeister wasn't the answer at quarterback in September when they lost big to Arizona and Utah. With Jalen Mayden starting, SDSU became increasingly efficient, even though he turned the ball over more than anyone would like.

The Aztecs' defense will be the key in maintaining separation. Top 50 in efficiency, according to Football Outsiders, it's got an advantageous matchup against an offense that's 101st in FEI. If San Diego State can get to 25 points, that might be enough to win by more than one score.

Pick: San Diego State -7

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

66:T2232,

The opening weekend of bowl season had mixed results when it came to wild swings in point spreads leading up to the various kickoffs.

We saw money come in on UTSA (flipping the favorite) as it closed -3 against Troy, only to lose outright.

On Saturday, after an original move from Oregon State -6.5 to -10, Florida took money the day of the Las Vegas Bowl. That didn't work out, as the Beavers embarrassed the Gators.

The opposite was true for both SMU - which extended to a big favorite and lost outright to BYU - and Boise State, which went from -7 to -11 but only won by three.

The big question is: What should we make of line moves from now until Christmas?

Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo (-4, 53.5)

When this line was Toledo -1, a bet on the Rockets was a good idea. Now that it's extended over a field goal, things have gone too far.

Pick: Liberty +4

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor (-5.5, 47.5)

While many of the other bowls have seen wild point-spread swings, the Armed Forces Bowl has been less dramatic. Baylor opened at -6.5 and the line has ticked down to -5.5.

TEAMS	ODDS
Liberty/Air Force/Texas Tech/Washington/Pittsburgh	+12300

Pick: Air Force +5.5

Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston (-7, 57.5)

Pick: Louisiana +7

Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State (-7, 49.5)

Speaking of big moves, San Diego State has gone up from -1.5 to -7, and in this case, that might be correct.

Pick: San Diego State -7

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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You can't make it to every holiday party with the same spirit, and you can't bet on every bowl game with the same confidence. Nor should you. However, a bowl confidence pool is a nice way to keep you engaged on a Tuesday afternoon or at the end of a Christmas movie marathon late on a Thursday night.

Let's talk strategy. Nineteen of the 41 games have point spreads at around a field goal or less. With so many pick'em games, that's where we'll try to make our hay since the pool will often be split 50-50 on who will win that game outright. We'll also lean on games late in the bowl schedule. After all, this is an exercise in entertainment, so keeping hope alive is part of the fun. We'll deploy big upsets sparingly, and mostly with low confidence since even if you can catch a big upset for low confidence you're still gaining on the group.

Here's the list from least confident to most confident as we hope for a merry holiday bowl season.

1 point: Miami (OH) over UAB

Why not kick things off with a low-stakes upset pick? UAB is looking forward to the Trent Dilfer era, so maybe the team won't be too into this one. A Miami (Ohio) win might give us a 1-0 lead on the rest of the pool. A loss? Well, we'll get it back later.

2: Tennessee over Clemson

At the moment, I have no idea what to expect from what will be left of these two teams, so let's bury this game here.

3: LSU over Purdue

This game has a double-digit spread, but I'm not totally buying that LSU romps. Of course, not enough to take a swing with Purdue, whose head coach bailed for his alma mater.

4: San Jose State over Eastern Michigan

This is the "favorite we're not psyched about, and we'd be OK if it loses" zone.

5: Houston over Louisiana-Lafayette

We never know what we're getting from Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game, but we've been against Louisiana all season.

6: Washington State over Fresno State

Fresno State is popular, having seen the spread swing to the Bulldogs as the favorites. We'll take a low-risk shot on that being the wrong move.

7: Utah State over Memphis

Time for some upset shots. This line has dropped from +10 down to +7, so maybe Utah State is live here.

8: Pittsburgh over UCLA

This would be higher value-wise if we knew whether Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet were playing, but even with them in, Pitt is live to win.

9: Syracuse over Minnesota

Look for Dino Babers to have "New York's team" up for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, there's reason to believe Minnesota might lose a bowl game under P.J. Fleck for the first time.

10: Rice over Southern Mississippi

We much prefer Southern Mississippi when it's in the role of underdog, so let's see if Rice, in its first bowl game in eight years, can pull off a modest upset of its own.

11: Kentucky over Iowa

The first of a handful of coin-flip games where we have no idea if it will land heads or tails. Will Levis opting out has flipped the line, but Iowa's offense isn't worth backing.

12: North Carolina State over Maryland

Pool players will be attracted to picking Taulia Tagovailoa, so we'll go the other way and rely on North Carolina State's defense to pull off a win.

13: BYU over SMU

BYU started as the favorite, but now it's SMU. We'll back the oddsmakers' initial instinct.

14: Washington over Texas

No Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson means it may be on Quinn Ewers to compete with Washington's offense, including a motivated Michael Penix.

15: Texas Tech over Mississippi

Texas Tech got Mississippi State last year, so why not make it a "Dixie" double?

16: Troy over UTSA

This is as big as I'm willing to go on a first-day game that could go either way, but Troy's defense can do a better job against Frank Harris than anyone in Conference USA did this season.

17: Cincinnati over Louisville

Cincinnati took Louisville's coach, so let's hope it can take the Fenway Bowl as well.

18: Oregon over North Carolina

Oregon is the biggest favorite on the board, so we'll use the Ducks, but there are other places where we want to make our move.

19: Georgia Southern over Buffalo

Georgia Southern is favored by enough to inspire some confidence, but not so much that Kyle Vantrease moving the offense with ease is a lock.

20: UConn over Marshall

The biggest meaningful underdog shot we'll take is trusting Jim Mora Jr. to use this surprising opportunity against UConn as a springboard for a program that likely never dreamed it would be in a bowl game - especially against a vulnerable opponent.

21: Tulane over USC

This closes out the strategic top half of our picks, so why not do so with a fade of USC, knowing that most in the pool will be taking the Trojans despite them being under a field-goal favorite.

22: South Alabama over Western Kentucky

The spread might be getting a little high, but South Alabama has lost twice all season, and to good teams. Western Kentucky doesn't necessarily qualify.

23: Toledo over Liberty

Hugh Freeze is on his way to Auburn, and on his way out, Liberty lost to New Mexico State. Meanwhile, the MAC champion has had some time for dual-threat star quarterback DeQuan Finn to get healthier.

24: Ohio over Wyoming

Christmas will be in the rearview so it's time to get serious with most of our big confidence plays coming. As the bowls get bigger, so do the point totals.

25: Georgia over Ohio State

Only in a confidence pool can the importance of a College Football Playoff semifinal be nestled in between MAC teams just looking to do their conference proud.

26: Bowling Green over New Mexico State

Getting to a bowl game is one thing for New Mexico State, but winning one is another. This is especially true when five of its six wins came against two FCS teams and three of the programs teams in the country (New Mexico, Hawaii, UMass).

27: South Carolina over Notre Dame

Quarterback Drew Pyne and star tight end Michael Mayer are out for Notre Dame. Meanwhile, South Carolina has last year's bowl upset over North Carolina and a pair of stunning wins to end the season to instill belief that the Gamecocks can add the Irish to their trophy case.

28: Missouri over Wake Forest

Wake Forest lost four of five to close a disappointing season, while Missouri's group is all-in for this game. Always give me the motivated side, even though it'll need every bit of it to slow Sam Hartman.

29: Kansas over Arkansas

Kansas is into this game - its first bowl since 2008 - whereas Arkansas is not. The Razorbacks' offense won't burn the Jayhawks like some in the Big 12 did this season.

30: Wisconsin over Oklahoma State

We've seen what Oklahoma State's offense looks like without Spencer Sanders, and now he's in the transfer portal.

31: Alabama over Kansas State

Your fellow poolies will probably be taking a shot on Kansas State. Getting Alabama with beneficial "pot odds" would be quite attractive.

32: Oregon State over Florida

We don't have enough space to list all of Florida's opt-outs. Oregon State should be more interested in playing football in Las Vegas, and a big point spread move in favor of the Beavers suggests as much.

33: Florida State over Oklahoma

In what should be a shootout, Oklahoma won't stop Florida State, while the Seminoles' defense should be able to get off the field once or twice.

34: Boise State over North Texas

North Texas is in disarray, but Boise State hasn't done quite enough to warrant top-tier confidence, even as a double-digit favorite.

35: Illinois over Mississippi State

Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach died Monday. Condolences to his family. There's no word at the time of publication about the status of the ReliaQuest Bowl. Any bowl cancellation should shift points accordingly.

36: Air Force over Baylor

Our biggest point risk on an outright underdog. If you can't trust the troops to show up, who can you trust? Baylor's defense has been prone to giving up the big play, and Air Force can lull the Bears into lapses.

37: San Diego State over Middle Tennessee

Put the kids to bed early under threats of cole in their stockings and gently tell your partner that we've got some major confidence points riding on the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. San Diego State might be the only team in the country unaffected by the island climate and vacation vibes.

38: Duke over Central Florida

Central Florida opened as the favorite, which was rectified quickly, so while this game seems like a toss-up, we'll follow the market in backing Duke. It helps that we've liked the Blue Devils numerous times this season and have faded UCF frequently.

39: Michigan over TCU

Enough of your competition will talk themselves into TCU being able to win this game, and much of the rest will respect the Horned Frogs enough to put less confidence in a Michigan pick. Let's steal some points with the Wolverines.

40: East Carolina over Coastal Carolina

Why the second-most confidence? A line move from East Carolina -7 up to 10 points, Coastal Carolina's indifference at the end of the season, and the fact that no one will put this game so high on their priority list.

41: Utah over Penn State

Saving our biggest play for last, we'd prefer backing an underdog with a chance to jump up the leaderboard, but hopefully, we're high enough in pool standings that the big points will do enough of the work for us. Penn State's seen some key opt-outs, while Utah has unfinished business in the Rose Bowl.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

68:T48d9,

Here's the list from least confident to most confident as we hope for a merry holiday bowl season.

1 point: Miami (OH) over UAB

2: Tennessee over Clemson

At the moment, I have no idea what to expect from what will be left of these two teams, so let's bury this game here.

3: LSU over Purdue

This game has a double-digit spread, but I'm not totally buying that LSU romps. Of course, not enough to take a swing with Purdue, whose head coach bailed for his alma mater.

4: San Jose State over Eastern Michigan

This is the "favorite we're not psyched about, and we'd be OK if it loses" zone.

5: Houston over Louisiana-Lafayette

We never know what we're getting from Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game, but we've been against Louisiana all season.

6: Washington State over Fresno State

Fresno State is popular, having seen the spread swing to the Bulldogs as the favorites. We'll take a low-risk shot on that being the wrong move.

7: Utah State over Memphis

Time for some upset shots. This line has dropped from +10 down to +7, so maybe Utah State is live here.

8: Pittsburgh over UCLA

This would be higher value-wise if we knew whether Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet were playing, but even with them in, Pitt is live to win.

9: Syracuse over Minnesota

Look for Dino Babers to have "New York's team" up for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, there's reason to believe Minnesota might lose a bowl game under P.J. Fleck for the first time.

10: Rice over Southern Mississippi

We much prefer Southern Mississippi when it's in the role of underdog, so let's see if Rice, in its first bowl game in eight years, can pull off a modest upset of its own.

11: Kentucky over Iowa

The first of a handful of coin-flip games where we have no idea if it will land heads or tails. Will Levis opting out has flipped the line, but Iowa's offense isn't worth backing.

12: North Carolina State over Maryland

Pool players will be attracted to picking Taulia Tagovailoa, so we'll go the other way and rely on North Carolina State's defense to pull off a win.

13: BYU over SMU

BYU started as the favorite, but now it's SMU. We'll back the oddsmakers' initial instinct.

14: Washington over Texas

No Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson means it may be on Quinn Ewers to compete with Washington's offense, including a motivated Michael Penix.

15: Texas Tech over Mississippi

Texas Tech got Mississippi State last year, so why not make it a "Dixie" double?

16: Troy over UTSA

This is as big as I'm willing to go on a first-day game that could go either way, but Troy's defense can do a better job against Frank Harris than anyone in Conference USA did this season.

17: Cincinnati over Louisville

Cincinnati took Louisville's coach, so let's hope it can take the Fenway Bowl as well.

18: Oregon over North Carolina

Oregon is the biggest favorite on the board, so we'll use the Ducks, but there are other places where we want to make our move.

19: Georgia Southern over Buffalo

Georgia Southern is favored by enough to inspire some confidence, but not so much that Kyle Vantrease moving the offense with ease is a lock.

20: UConn over Marshall

21: Tulane over USC

This closes out the strategic top half of our picks, so why not do so with a fade of USC, knowing that most in the pool will be taking the Trojans despite them being under a field-goal favorite.

22: South Alabama over Western Kentucky

The spread might be getting a little high, but South Alabama has lost twice all season, and to good teams. Western Kentucky doesn't necessarily qualify.

23: Toledo over Liberty

Hugh Freeze is on his way to Auburn, and on his way out, Liberty lost to New Mexico State. Meanwhile, the MAC champion has had some time for dual-threat star quarterback DeQuan Finn to get healthier.

24: Ohio over Wyoming

Christmas will be in the rearview so it's time to get serious with most of our big confidence plays coming. As the bowls get bigger, so do the point totals.

25: Georgia over Ohio State

Only in a confidence pool can the importance of a College Football Playoff semifinal be nestled in between MAC teams just looking to do their conference proud.

26: Bowling Green over New Mexico State

27: South Carolina over Notre Dame

28: Missouri over Wake Forest

29: Kansas over Arkansas

Kansas is into this game - its first bowl since 2008 - whereas Arkansas is not. The Razorbacks' offense won't burn the Jayhawks like some in the Big 12 did this season.

30: Wisconsin over Oklahoma State

We've seen what Oklahoma State's offense looks like without Spencer Sanders, and now he's in the transfer portal.

31: Alabama over Kansas State

Your fellow poolies will probably be taking a shot on Kansas State. Getting Alabama with beneficial "pot odds" would be quite attractive.

32: Oregon State over Florida

33: Florida State over Oklahoma

In what should be a shootout, Oklahoma won't stop Florida State, while the Seminoles' defense should be able to get off the field once or twice.

34: Boise State over North Texas

North Texas is in disarray, but Boise State hasn't done quite enough to warrant top-tier confidence, even as a double-digit favorite.

35: Illinois over Mississippi State

36: Air Force over Baylor

37: San Diego State over Middle Tennessee

38: Duke over Central Florida

39: Michigan over TCU

40: East Carolina over Coastal Carolina

41: Utah over Penn State

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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With the 2022 regular season officially over, it's time for postseason college football action.

The full slate of 42 games and the national title contest kicks off on Dec. 16 with the Bahamas Bowl.

Here's the full list of matchups for bowl season:

Bowl	Date	Team	Team
Bahamas Bowl	Dec. 16	Miami (Ohio)	UAB
Cure Bowl	Dec. 16	Troy	UTSA
Fenway Bowl	Dec. 17	Cincinnati	Louisville
Celebration Bowl	Dec. 17	NC Central	Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 17	BYU	SMU
L.A. Bowl	Dec. 17	Washington State	Fresno State
Lendingtree Bowl	Dec. 17	Southern Miss	Rice
Las Vegas Bowl	Dec. 17	Oregon State	Florida
Frisco Bowl	Dec. 17	North Texas	Boise State
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Dec. 19	UConn	Marshall
Potato Bowl	Dec. 20	Eastern Michigan	San Jose State
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 20	Liberty	Toledo
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 21	Western Kentucky	South Alabama
Armed Forces Bowl	Dec. 22	Air Force	Baylor
Independence Bowl	Dec. 23	Louisiana	Houston
Gasparilla Bowl	Dec. 23	Missouri	Wake Forest
Hawaii Bowl	Dec. 24	Middle Tennessee	San Diego State
Quick Lane Bowl	Dec. 26	Bowling Green	New Mexico State
Camellia Bowl	Dec. 27	Georgia Southern	Buffalo
First Responder Bowl	Dec. 27	Utah State	Memphis
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 27	East Carolina	Coastal Carolina
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Dec. 27	Wisconsin	Oklahoma State
Military Bowl	Dec. 28	UCF	Duke
Holiday Bowl	Dec. 28	North Carolina	Oregon
Liberty Bowl	Dec. 28	Kansas	Arkansas
Texas Bowl	Dec. 28	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 29	Minnesota	Syracuse
Cheez-It Bowl	Dec. 29	Oklahoma	Florida State
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 29	Texas	Washington
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Dec. 30	Maryland	NC State
Sun Bowl	Dec. 30	Pitt	UCLA
Gator Bowl	Dec. 30	Notre Dame	South Carolina
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 30	Wyoming	Ohio
Orange Bowl	Dec. 30	Tennessee	Clemson
Music City Bowl	Dec. 31	Iowa	Kentucky
Sugar Bowl	Dec. 31	Alabama	Kansas State
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	Georgia	Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl	Dec. 31	Michigan	TCU
Reliaquest Bowl	Jan. 2	Illinois	Mississippi State
Cotton Bowl	Jan. 2	Tulane	USC
Citrus Bowl	Jan. 2	Purdue	LSU
Rose Bowl	Jan. 2	Utah	Penn State
CFP Championship	Jan. 9	TBD	TBD

6a:T10b7,

With the 2022 regular season officially over, it's time for postseason college football action.

The full slate of 42 games and the national title contest kicks off on Dec. 16 with the Bahamas Bowl.

Here's the full list of matchups for bowl season:

Bowl	Date	Team	Team
Bahamas Bowl	Dec. 16	Miami (Ohio)	UAB
Cure Bowl	Dec. 16	Troy	UTSA
Fenway Bowl	Dec. 17	Cincinnati	Louisville
Celebration Bowl	Dec. 17	NC Central	Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 17	BYU	SMU
L.A. Bowl	Dec. 17	Washington State	Fresno State
Lendingtree Bowl	Dec. 17	Southern Miss	Rice
Las Vegas Bowl	Dec. 17	Oregon State	Florida
Frisco Bowl	Dec. 17	North Texas	Boise State
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Dec. 19	UConn	Marshall
Potato Bowl	Dec. 20	Eastern Michigan	San Jose State
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 20	Liberty	Toledo
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 21	Western Kentucky	South Alabama
Armed Forces Bowl	Dec. 22	Air Force	Baylor
Independence Bowl	Dec. 23	Louisiana	Houston
Gasparilla Bowl	Dec. 23	Missouri	Wake Forest
Hawaii Bowl	Dec. 24	Middle Tennessee	San Diego State
Quick Lane Bowl	Dec. 26	Bowling Green	New Mexico State
Camellia Bowl	Dec. 27	Georgia Southern	Buffalo
First Responder Bowl	Dec. 27	Utah State	Memphis
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 27	East Carolina	Coastal Carolina
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Dec. 27	Wisconsin	Oklahoma State
Military Bowl	Dec. 28	UCF	Duke
Holiday Bowl	Dec. 28	North Carolina	Oregon
Liberty Bowl	Dec. 28	Kansas	Arkansas
Texas Bowl	Dec. 28	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 29	Minnesota	Syracuse
Cheez-It Bowl	Dec. 29	Oklahoma	Florida State
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 29	Texas	Washington
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Dec. 30	Maryland	NC State
Sun Bowl	Dec. 30	Pitt	UCLA
Gator Bowl	Dec. 30	Notre Dame	South Carolina
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 30	Wyoming	Ohio
Orange Bowl	Dec. 30	Tennessee	Clemson
Music City Bowl	Dec. 31	Iowa	Kentucky
Sugar Bowl	Dec. 31	Alabama	Kansas State
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	Georgia	Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl	Dec. 31	Michigan	TCU
Reliaquest Bowl	Jan. 2	Illinois	Mississippi State
Cotton Bowl	Jan. 2	Tulane	USC
Citrus Bowl	Jan. 2	Purdue	LSU
Rose Bowl	Jan. 2	Utah	Penn State
CFP Championship	Jan. 9	TBD	TBD

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DALLAS (AP) — Conference USA's new media rights deal with ESPN and CBS will include midweek football games throughout October as the league tries to increase visibility similarly to the way the Mid-American Conference has by playing on Tuesdays and Wednesdays late in the season.

The multiyear deal announced Thursday starts next season as Conference USA goes through extensive membership turnover.

Six current C-USA members are leaving after this season to join the American Athletic Conference. Liberty, Jacksonville State, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State are joining C-USA next year and Kennesaw State is scheduled to join in 2024.

C-USA will eventually be a 10-school conference, keeping UTEP, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky.

The new deal gives CBS Sports Network the top weekly selection of C-USA football games and men's basketball games.

CBS Sports Network will also air the C-USA football championship, the men's basketball tournament semifinals and championship game, the women's basketball championship game and conference title games for baseball and softball.

The new agreement puts more C-USA games on ESPN networks than its current contracts, which often had fans scrambling to figure out where to watch their teams — including Facebook streams and the NFL Network.

"This is a major step forward for Conference USA in terms of our multimedia rights as it relates to streamlined exposure, accessibility for our fans and greater financial resources for our members,” Commissioner Judy MacLeod said in a statement.

All October conference games will be played midweek. ESPN networks will carry eight of those games a year.

The MAC began using a midweek-heavy football schedule about 10 years ago and now plays all of its games before Saturday throughout November. MACtion has become a popular brand, though playing Tuesday and Wednesday nights is not always easy for players and coaches and fans who want to attend the games.

But for a conference in transition such as C-USA, a similar approach was appealing.

“Building on our strong relationships with CBS and ESPN enabled us to provide increased exposure and consistent broadcast homes for our membership and fans as we continue to see the landscape of Conference USA and college athletics evolve.” MacLeod said.

___

More AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://bit.ly/3pqZVaF

6c:Ta9b,

The multiyear deal announced Thursday starts next season as Conference USA goes through extensive membership turnover.

C-USA will eventually be a 10-school conference, keeping UTEP, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky.

The new deal gives CBS Sports Network the top weekly selection of C-USA football games and men's basketball games.

All October conference games will be played midweek. ESPN networks will carry eight of those games a year.

But for a conference in transition such as C-USA, a similar approach was appealing.

___

More AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://bit.ly/3pqZVaF

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — For Middle Tennessee State, big plays brought the biggest win in program history.

And for Miami, there are big problems.

Chase Cunningham passed for 408 yards and three touchdowns, including a 98-yarder to DJ England-Chisholm, and Middle Tennessee State stunned No. 25 Miami 45-31 for its first win in 21 tries against ranked opponents.

“It was a butt-kicking from the very beginning,” MTSU coach Rick Stockstill said.

He wasn’t wrong. MTSU (3-1) never trailed, forced turnovers on Miami’s first three possessions, stopped the Hurricanes (2-2) on downs on three other occasions and scored on passes of 69, 71 and 98 yards — and had another 89-yard pass in there for good measure.

“They coached better than us, they played better than us,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said. “They were better. We didn’t do a good enough job. There’s no excuse. Real men look in the mirror and do something about it and don’t allow any cracks to happen from the inside. We all came here for a purpose and a reason. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”

England-Chisholm caught two passes — the first of them being a 71-yard touchdown in the first quarter, the other being the 98-yarder in the fourth — to help the Blue Raiders seal the upset.

Cunningham completed 16 of 25 passes for Middle Tennessee State, including a 69-yard scoring throw to Elijah Metcalf. Cunningham and Frank Peasant also ran for scores for the Blue Raiders, and defensive end Zaylin Wood returned an interception for a touchdown.

“I trust my guys to the end, and they won every single time,” Cunningham said.

Key’Shawn Smith returned a kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown for Miami, which turned the ball over on its first three possessions and never escaped the early hole it dug. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke — the Atlantic Coast Conference rookie of the year last season — was pulled in the third quarter and replaced by Jake Garcia.

Van Dyke completed 16 of 32 passes for 138 yards, one touchdown to Henry Parrish Jr., and two interceptions — those coming on Miami’s first and third plays from scrimmage. Garcia completed 10 of 19 passes for 161 yards for the Hurricanes, who heard plenty of boos from the fans who showed up to what was not even a half-filled stadium; most were long gone before the final whistle.

“We looked at that team, ’Oh, we’re going to win this game,’” Miami offensive lineman Jalen Rivers said. “So we came in obviously unmotivated ... and we got punched in the mouth.”

Defensive back Kam Kinchens was more direct: “Everybody played horrible.”

Garcia entered midway through the third quarter and brought an immediate spark. He engineered a five-play, 72-yard touchdown drive — fueled by passes of 39 and 23 yards, Miami’s two biggest gains of the day to that point — and got the Hurricanes within 31-17 on a 1-yard rush by Thad Franklin, the first of his two scores on the day.

The win was a long time coming for Stockstill, who played his college football at Florida State — Miami’s rival. The Seminoles went 0-2 in games that Stockstill played against the Hurricanes in 1980 and 1981.

Those games were close. This one wasn’t.

And while a blowout might have been expected with Miami entering as a 25.5-point favorite, few, if anyone, would have dared to say it would be the Blue Raiders doing the romping. It even had oddsmakers scrambling; MTSU actually became the betting favorite to win by the midpoint of the second quarter, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

“We came down here and I told them Michael Irvin and Ray Lewis and those guys weren’t coming out of that tunnel,” said Stockstill, who had some family, friends and former FSU teammates on the trip. “We came down here with a strong belief and just a great, great competitive spirit.”

It was 10-0 before Miami got on the board, 24-3 early in the second quarter when Cunningham scored on a 9-yard rush. The Hurricanes never got closer than 14 points the rest of the way.

Miami had a chance to get within a touchdown on a 4th-and-goal from the Middle Tennessee 1 on the opening play of the fourth quarter; Garcia’s pass couldn’t be controlled by tight end Will Mallory, causing a turnover on downs.

The next play, England-Chisolm got loose down the left sideline for the biggest pass play ever allowed by the Hurricanes, two yards longer than the 96-yard pass Maryland’s Darrius Heyward-Bey caught from Sam Hollenbach in 2006.

From there, it was only a matter of time before MTSU could truly start the celebration.

“A lot of people doubted us,” said receiver Jaylin Lane, who had the 89-yard catch. “But this shows all about our perseverance.”

THE TAKEAWAY

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders went to the upper level of college football, now called FBS, in 1999. Entering Saturday, they were 0-20 against opponents that were ranked in the AP Top 25 poll when those games were played and outscored by 585 points — 868-283.

Miami: According to SportRadar, the Hurricanes became the first Power 5 school this season to commit three turnovers in a first quarter. The last Power 5 school to achieve that ignominious feat was ... Miami, last season against Florida State.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

It’s over for Miami, for now. The Hurricanes were No. 25 and will fall out of the poll Sunday. At 2-2, it’ll be difficult for the Hurricanes to be considered again by many voters anytime soon.

NEVER LED

MTSU is now 3-0 all-time against Miami, with the other wins coming in 1931 and 1932. The Hurricanes never held the lead in any of those games.

UP NEXT

Middle Tennessee State: Hosts UTSA on Friday in the Conference USA opener for both clubs.

Miami: A bye week, then Atlantic Coast Conference play starts Oct. 8 at home against North Carolina.

___

More AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25

6e:T180d,

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — For Middle Tennessee State, big plays brought the biggest win in program history.

And for Miami, there are big problems.

“It was a butt-kicking from the very beginning,” MTSU coach Rick Stockstill said.

England-Chisholm caught two passes — the first of them being a 71-yard touchdown in the first quarter, the other being the 98-yarder in the fourth — to help the Blue Raiders seal the upset.

“I trust my guys to the end, and they won every single time,” Cunningham said.

“We looked at that team, ’Oh, we’re going to win this game,’” Miami offensive lineman Jalen Rivers said. “So we came in obviously unmotivated ... and we got punched in the mouth.”

Defensive back Kam Kinchens was more direct: “Everybody played horrible.”

Those games were close. This one wasn’t.

It was 10-0 before Miami got on the board, 24-3 early in the second quarter when Cunningham scored on a 9-yard rush. The Hurricanes never got closer than 14 points the rest of the way.

From there, it was only a matter of time before MTSU could truly start the celebration.

“A lot of people doubted us,” said receiver Jaylin Lane, who had the 89-yard catch. “But this shows all about our perseverance.”

THE TAKEAWAY

POLL IMPLICATIONS

It’s over for Miami, for now. The Hurricanes were No. 25 and will fall out of the poll Sunday. At 2-2, it’ll be difficult for the Hurricanes to be considered again by many voters anytime soon.

NEVER LED

MTSU is now 3-0 all-time against Miami, with the other wins coming in 1931 and 1932. The Hurricanes never held the lead in any of those games.

UP NEXT

Middle Tennessee State: Hosts UTSA on Friday in the Conference USA opener for both clubs.

Miami: A bye week, then Atlantic Coast Conference play starts Oct. 8 at home against North Carolina.

___

More AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25

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