Skip to content

7 betting trends to trust in Week 6

Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Georgia Tech going over the total as heavy chalk? Check.

Pitt failing to cover the spread in a non-conference game? Also check.

Those were just a few angles we dug into last week. Again, trends tell us more about what has happened rather than what will. It might take out the predictive aspect, but it could line up with an edge you might already have.

Here are some angles to keep in mind with Week 6 on deck:

The over is 15-4 when Clemson is a double-digit road favorite under Dabo Swinney

Situation: Clemson -17 at Wake Forest; O/U 62

We mentioned this angle in our first edition back in Week 4. In that situation, Clemson was beating teams 42.8 to 20 on average. As 17-point favorites at Georgia Tech, the Tigers were right on par with that, winning 49-21.

The good news in Week 6: Clemson will face a Wake Forest defense that is giving up 461.2 yards and 31.6 points per game.

The other good news: The Tigers "definitely" expect freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence to play after he left midway through Week 5 with a head/neck injury.

Eastern Michigan under Chris Creighton is on a 12-1 ATS run as a road underdog

Situation: Eastern Michigan +3 at Western Michigan

Back to the well!

Eastern Michigan only knows how to play as an underdog. The Eagles were in a sweet spot in Week 4 when they traveled to play against San Diego State, which was coming off a home win over Arizona State and had a bye week up next. Eastern Michigan did what Eastern Michigan does best: cover the spread while getting points on the road. It took the Aztecs to overtime as 11-point 'dogs and made it 12-1 against the spread in the last 13 in this situation.

Ranked Power Five teams coming off a loss by at least 14 points are 67-101-2 ATS the following week

Situations: BYU -2.5 vs. Utah State; Cal +2 at Arizona; Stanford -5 vs Utah

We love this angle, which was brought to the surface by the Washington Post in Week 4. It's a decent sample size that screams hangover effect. Last week, six teams fell into the situation and wound up going 2-4 against the spread.

If you're looking for late-night action, all three of the teams in this situation for Week 6 will be playing at 9 p.m. ET or later.

LSU opponents are 8-2 to the team total under in the Tigers' last 10 road games

Tom Pennington / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Situation: LSU -2.5 at Florida; O/U 44.5

Dave Aranda is the man. The LSU defensive coordinator has made an impact throughout his stops in the FBS and deserves credit for how he's kept the Tigers a perennial defensive juggernaut.

LSU has been just as tough defensively away from home, holding its opponents to 19 points per game on the road since Aranda came over in 2016. Florida has struggled to move the ball again this season, ranking 94th in the nation with 377.8 yards of total offense per game.

Iowa State opponents are 11-1 to the team total under in the Cyclones' last 12 road games

Situation: Iowa State +10.5 at Oklahoma State; O/U 54.5

Well hello, Iowa State?

Over the last 12 games away from home, the Cyclones are allowing an average of 21.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State's team total on Saturday will be roughly 10-11 points higher than that, and the Cowboys might have some potential holes at wide receiver with Dillon Stoner questionable and Jalen McCleskey recently announcing his decision to transfer.

Old Dominion opponents are 7-0 to the team total over in the Monarchs' last seven road games

Situation: Old Dominion +15 at Florida Atlantic; O/U 68

While the two aforementioned Power Five teams have held their own defensively on the road, the same cannot be said for Old Dominion. The Monarchs are allowing 38.2 points per game on the road over their last seven, with every opponent seeing their team total fly over.

Florida Atlantic hasn't been as impressive in year two under Lane Kiffin but figures to potentially have its breakout game. The Owls had to go on the road to play at both Oklahoma and Central Florida so far this season. Old Dominion might have the biggest upset win of the season - it beat Virginia Tech as a 28-point underdog - but the defense is still tough to trust as it's allowing 509 yards and 36 points per game.

East Carolina under head coach Scottie Montgomery is 1-8 ATS as a double-digit road underdog

Situation: East Carolina +11.5 at Temple

This trend finally broke this season when the Pirates covered as 20-point underdogs at South Florida in Week 4.

East Carolina barely squeaked out a win over Old Dominion last Saturday and now travels to take on Temple, which has a win over Maryland and also hung in with Boston College just this past weekend.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox